Brexit negotiations thread

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

I've no idea what if any progress has been made and I'm not in the least bit surprised or concerned.
We were promised a bumpy ride and it looks like we're going to get one - I'll continue to hold my nerve for the foreseeable and not demand a re-think every two minutes.

I agree with the 'no rethink every two minutes'. I come across a lot of Remainers on twitter who are in blind panic and I'm constantly posting 'calm down' messages. I think it has to run a lot more of it's course before the outcome will become apparent.

I think where we differ is what that outcome will be. I see David Davis' incompetence derailing the whole thing and Brexit not happening, but I think that we are only getting glimpses of that so far - which is enough for more staunch Remainers to think we are already at that point. The push to scrap the process is too early for me, that should only come if and when Davis' actions sway public opinion a lot more than they have so far.


I think he will be faced with a choice of pay a divorce settlement that will offend many Leavers, or just leave with no deal - but we seem unlikely to have deals with the wider world set up, or remain. The 'just leave' option I doubt will have anywhere near the public support that the referendum had and at that point I see the government collapsing.


All conjecture at this point but I think it all relies on Davis and he has given no indication that he can see the referendum result through to its intended conclusion.

 

[callan]

I agree with the 'no rethink every two minutes'. I come across a lot of Remainers on twitter who are in blind panic and I'm constantly posting 'calm down' messages. I think it has to run a lot more of it's course before the outcome will become apparent.

I think where we differ is what that outcome will be. I see David Davis' incompetence derailing the whole thing and Brexit not happening, but I think that we are only getting glimpses of that so far - which is enough for more staunch Remainers to think we are already at that point. The push to scrap the process is too early for me, that should only come if and when Davis' actions sway public opinion a lot more than they have so far.


I think he will be faced with a choice of pay a divorce settlement that will offend many Leavers, or just leave with no deal - but we seem unlikely to have deals with the wider world set up, or remain. The 'just leave' option I doubt will have anywhere near the public support that the referendum had and at that point I see the government collapsing.


All conjecture at this point but I think it all relies on Davis and he has given no indication that he can see the referendum result through to its intended conclusion.

What would you change from the UK's point of view....in terms of the negotiations?

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

What would you change from the UK's point of view....in terms of the negotiations?

Obviously there was a lot of time wasted with the 'keep Parliament out of the loop' court cases and calling a general election 3 years early and then time filling the power vacuum that created . So I'd like to see some of the early stages put to bed.

Liam Fox stating the EU are blackmailing us, Redmond still saying that we shouldn't pay a penny to leave - these people are not making Davis' job any easier.


The amount UK will pay the EU to leave is stage 1 - Davis didn't want the agenda to work that way but once he agreed that it would then that needs to be dealt with asap. The figure they agree on that will have a big impact on people re-assessing their thoughts on this, maybe Davis knows that and is stalling.


Businesses like to plan ahead, with no sign of progress in the EU negotiations our economy is going to be in limbo. No one is going to like the leave bill but better we don't like it now than don't like it further down the line and eat away more at the trade negotiations time - which is vital to deals with the EU and rest of the world.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...l-europe-clean-break-fractious-talks-brussels

The reality is that the EU wants to make a clean break-not the UK.:smile:.

 

[Bielzibubz]

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...l-europe-clean-break-fractious-talks-brussels

The reality is that the EU wants to make a clean break-not the UK.:smile:.

:zzzzz:Another biased link. You never learn do you comrade.

 

[Lord Football]

What would you change from the UK's point of view....in terms of the negotiations?

This is an opinion, not fact.

I think what the EU need is some confirmation that a divorce bill will be paid, and would like DD to actively engage on that basis. Knowing how the Commission works, they are going to be tied to a mandate and it will be difficult to make significant changes to that. It doesn't help with Boris comes up with some of the comments he does, nor does it help that there is an obvious split within the Brexit camp in the Government (let alone the Remainers)

Currently the negotiations appear to be going nowhere because the EU aren't going to concede or agree anything until that is done.

BUT, and here is the nub. It is clearly in the interest of Germany, Netherlands, France and especially Ireland, that some kind of trade transition is agreed and they can be quite a powerful bloc.

So I'd like us to be more open about the prospect of agreeing to paying something, and working out how to calculate how much and then timetable the issues we must agree before we go. The difficulty with that is, the moment we agree to pay something the madmen at the Mail et al will scream "traitor" and any internal progress will be lost. But the longer we continue is some sort of limbo, the more confusion exists for businesses and the more fragile our economy becomes.

 

[Gremlin]

The amount UK will pay the EU to leave is stage 1 - Davis didn't want the agenda to work that way but once he agreed that it would then that needs to be dealt with asap. The figure they agree on that will have a big impact on people re-assessing their thoughts on this, maybe Davis knows that and is stalling.

My take is that the concept of a 'divorce payment' can be stage 1 but the amount can't possibly be since that will inevitably be determined by the outcomes of the subsequent stages of the negotiations.

 

[Bielzibubz]

My take is that the concept of a 'divorce payment' can be stage 1 but the amount can't possibly be since that will inevitably be determined by the outcomes of the subsequent stages of the negotiations.

More or less what DD just said on the Andrew Marr breakfast show. The EU just want us to agree to pay whatever the amount is they come up with without actually scrutinising what it is we're paying for. We've agreed that we have certain moral and political financial obligations that we are obliged to stick to. What the EU can't seem to grasp or agree to is that those obligation costs can't and shouldn't just be plucked out of thin air as seems the case now.

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

More or less what DD just said on the Andrew Marr breakfast show. The EU just want us to agree to pay whatever the amount is they come up with without actually scrutinising what it is we're paying for. We've agreed that we have certain moral and political financial obligations that we are obliged to stick to. What the EU can't seem to grasp or agree to is that those obligation costs can't and shouldn't just be plucked out of thin air as seems the case now.

are they really plucking a figure out of thin air? We have been fed various figures by the media but did they ever come from an official source? I would struggle to believe that the EU would not submit a figure that didn't have full reasoning and calculations to back it up. There are many views on the EU in this country but I can't see anyone agreeing that we should pay over any amount unless it has full justification on how they arrived at that figure.

 

[Gremlin]

I would struggle to believe that the EU would not submit a figure that didn't have full reasoning and calculations to back it up.

Are we talking about the same EU that hasn't published audited accounts for 22 years?

In any case the figure, if indeed there is to be one, needs to be arrived at later.

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

Are we talking about the same EU that hasn't published audited accounts for 22 years?

In any case the figure, if indeed there is to be one, needs to be arrived at later.

why does the figure need to be arrived at later? Davis didn't want the divorce bill to come before trade deal, but he agreed to that sequence of events so now that is what is happening. The longer it takes to agree that the less time there is for negotiating trade deals.

Accounts not signed off - agreed that is a big failing of the EU, but they have not been signed off by external auditors and convincing them to approve complex accounting is a lot harder than coming up with one figure and justifying it.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-41140564

"Britons need to know consequences of Brexit", says EU negotiator.Barnier's going to teach us a lesson.

 

[callan]

Obviously there was a lot of time wasted with the 'keep Parliament out of the loop' court cases and calling a general election 3 years early and then time filling the power vacuum that created . So I'd like to see some of the early stages put to bed.

Liam Fox stating the EU are blackmailing us, Redmond still saying that we shouldn't pay a penny to leave - these people are not making Davis' job any easier.


The amount UK will pay the EU to leave is stage 1 - Davis didn't want the agenda to work that way but once he agreed that it would then that needs to be dealt with asap. The figure they agree on that will have a big impact on people re-assessing their thoughts on this, maybe Davis knows that and is stalling.


Businesses like to plan ahead, with no sign of progress in the EU negotiations our economy is going to be in limbo. No one is going to like the leave bill but better we don't like it now than don't like it further down the line and eat away more at the trade negotiations time - which is vital to deals with the EU and rest of the world.

This pretty much sums up my own thoughts, I don't particularly blame Davis for agreeing the sequence as you can't discuss aspects of phase one without touching on phase two.

In respect of the bill, we need to know more about the mechanic of how the EU arrives at whatever sum they come up with....as a leaver I'm happy to honour any obligations we as the UK may have, but would not hand over a single penny till a deal is completed.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

:zzzzz:Another biased link. You never learn do you comrade.

What you should have learnt by now is that your feeble attempts to shut down debate on this topic won't work with me.

As far as I'm concerned, the Brexit vote was the worst political decision made in my lifetime.

I can just imagine the future Politics exam quesion now:What was the worst political decision made since WW2? Invading Suez in 1956 or leaving the EU after the 2016 Referendum? Discuss.

While I'm here ,here's another link for you.https://www.theguardian.com/busines...y-sputters-its-all-systems-go-in-the-eurozone

PS.As an ex-member of the CPGB, "comrade" is a form of fraternal greeting and not abuse, in my book.:smiles:

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

Front page of the Sunday Times said May has approved a £50bn divorce bill, Independent has Davis claiming that is nonsense.


The German and French press are probably no more reliable but still interesting to see what has been said:


https://www.google.co.uk/amp/m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/uk_59aa8171e4b0354e440aa55c/amp


This description of David Davis caught my eye:


Strikingly lazy... [he] works only three to four days a week and can not be reached on weekends because he has no phone signal.

 

[callan]

What you should have learnt by now is that your feeble attempts to shut down debate on this topic won't work with me.

As far as I'm concerned, the Brexit vote was the worst political decision made in my lifetime.

I can just imagine the future Politics exam quesion now:What was the worst political decision made since WW2? Invading Suez in 1956 or leaving the EU after the 2016 Referendum? Discuss.

While I'm here ,here's another link for you.https://www.theguardian.com/busines...y-sputters-its-all-systems-go-in-the-eurozone

PS.As an ex-member of the CPGB, "comrade" is a form of fraternal greeting and not abuse, in my book.:smiles:

The point is that by continually peppering threads with links unaccompanied with little or meaningful comment, it stifles debate rather than opening up any worth while discussion.

Many of your links actually contradict others you have posted, and I'm sure that you aren't completely oblivious to this as presumably you actually read them prior to posting.

I'm more likely these days to skip past your posts as they are a daily repetition of what I have already read....in the BBC and Guardian.

 

[londonblue]

The point is that by continually peppering threads with links unaccompanied with little or meaningful comment, it stifles debate rather than opening up any worth while discussion.

Many of your links actually contradict others you have posted, and I'm sure that you aren't completely oblivious to this as presumably you actually read them prior to posting.

I'm more likely these days to skip past your posts these days as they are a daily repetition of what I have already read....in the BBC and Guardian.

It's the double standards I don't appreciate. I can't be bothered with Grauniad links any more.

Everyone else is worth debating with. Even you :raspberry:

 

[callan]

It's the double standards I don't appreciate. I can't be bothered with Grauniad links any more.

Everyone else is worth debating with. Even you :raspberry:

I wouldn't go that far!

 

[rigsby]

What you should have learnt by now is that your feeble attempts to shut down debate on this topic won't work with me.

As far as I'm concerned, the Brexit vote was the worst political decision made in my lifetime.

I can just imagine the future Politics exam quesion now:What was the worst political decision made since WW2? Invading Suez in 1956 or leaving the EU after the 2016 Referendum? Discuss.

While I'm here ,here's another link for you.https://www.theguardian.com/busines...y-sputters-its-all-systems-go-in-the-eurozone

PS.As an ex-member of the CPGB, "comrade" is a form of fraternal greeting and not abuse, in my book.:smiles:

So would I if I was living in Spain and running up huge debts at Britains expense.

 

[Gt Yarmouth Shrimper]

I can just imagine the future Politics exam quesion now:What was the worst political decision made since WW2? Invading Suez in 1956 or leaving the EU after the 2016 Referendum? Discuss.

I'm aware that I'm going :off topic: here but the invasion of Iraq and the subsequent destabilization of the region gets my vote.