Games in February

[yogi bear up the cagire]

As I've already stated a couple of times, the last two seasons have started to founder, not as some think, over the December/January period but in the month of February. In both 2011/12 and 2012/13 we had identical results in that month when we played six, won two, drew one and lost three, thus accruing 7 points from 6 games......hardly promotion form.
Initially, I thought we'd have to wait until March for an assessment of our promotion chances, as there were only three games previewed for February. With the addition of two re-arranged matches, the month has now become more important and we could also add in the 1st of March game against Wycombe, which gives us six games again. In my view our aim must be an average of 2 points a game (Chesterfield are now virtually on the button), this allows us to drop a few points short of that and still be pretty sure of automatic promotion. We are, at the moment 9 points adrift of that target.
In simple terms we need at least 12 points from the next six fixtures, that will certainly keep us in the mix for the top three places and anything additional would help us make up the deficit. This is not an impossible task but a very tough one. I'll leave you with some statistics to bear in mind when you consider how easy the next six games are.
In today's games only Wycombe failed completely, of the other five future opponents ALL got some result against teams higher than them in the league. York won at Fleetwood, whilst the other four ended up with draws. It's a salient fact that, in this year's League Two, any team can beat (or draw) with any other team on their day. On the positive side, that's a hard fact for our promotion rivals as well as for ourselves.......as a number of them found out today.

Well, that's that! Six of the most important games of the season gone. I said that we needed 12 points and we got..... ............3!!! I said that we would be able to assess the situation better this evening.........and I think we can.
Of course nothing that would hint at defeatism will be admitted but we need to start thinking about next season .... this one is as good as finished. You really have to be an optimist of the first order to believe that, suddenly we are going to change form and go on a winning run............that kind of thing just hardly ever happens. We are dropping like a stone and Plymouth will overhaul us in the very near future. THIS SIDE AS IT IS PRESENTLY FORMED is NOT going to get us to the play-offs. The chances of getting new players in, that are going to immediately make a difference, is quite honestly VERY remote. Isn't it really, rather too late for that; any strengthening should have been done 3 or 4 games ago. There are those who will talk about our 'lack of luck' 'rub of the green' .........I'm afraid I don't go along very much with that.........you make your own luck. Play-off hopes is the time for dreamers..........the time for apportioning blame cometh fast.

 

[Jam_Man]

Well, that's that! Six of the most important games of the season gone. I said that we needed 12 points and we got..... ............3!!! I said that we would be able to assess the situation better this evening.........and I think we can.
Of course nothing that would hint at defeatism will be admitted but we need to start thinking about next season .... this one is as good as finished. You really have to be an optimist of the first order to believe that, suddenly we are going to change form and go on a winning run............that kind of thing just hardly ever happens. We are dropping like a stone and Plymouth will overhaul us in the very near future. THIS SIDE AS IT IS PRESENTLY FORMED is NOT going to get us to the play-offs. The chances of getting new players in, that are going to immediately make a difference, is quite honestly VERY remote. Isn't it really, rather too late for that; any strengthening should have been done 3 or 4 games ago. There are those who will talk about our 'lack of luck' 'rub of the green' .........I'm afraid I don't go along very much with that.........you make your own luck. Play-off hopes is the time for dreamers..........the time for apportioning blame cometh fast.

Seriously?

Throwing the towel in when we are still in the top 7 with a quarter of the season left?!?!

We are in the mire but pull yourself together man, where's your bulldog spirit ?:smile:

 

[davewebbsbrain]

Well, that's that! Six of the most important games of the season gone. I said that we needed 12 points and we got..... ............3!!! I said that we would be able to assess the situation better this evening.........and I think we can.
Of course nothing that would hint at defeatism will be admitted but we need to start thinking about next season .... this one is as good as finished. You really have to be an optimist of the first order to believe that, suddenly we are going to change form and go on a winning run............that kind of thing just hardly ever happens. We are dropping like a stone and Plymouth will overhaul us in the very near future. THIS SIDE AS IT IS PRESENTLY FORMED is NOT going to get us to the play-offs. The chances of getting new players in, that are going to immediately make a difference, is quite honestly VERY remote. Isn't it really, rather too late for that; any strengthening should have been done 3 or 4 games ago. There are those who will talk about our 'lack of luck' 'rub of the green' .........I'm afraid I don't go along very much with that.........you make your own luck. Play-off hopes is the time for dreamers..........the time for apportioning blame cometh fast.

Replying to your own posts is proper madness

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

As I've already stated a couple of times, the last two seasons have started to founder, not as some think, over the December/January period but in the month of February. In both 2011/12 and 2012/13 we had identical results in that month when we played six, won two, drew one and lost three, thus accruing 7 points from 6 games......hardly promotion form.
Initially, I thought we'd have to wait until March for an assessment of our promotion chances, as there were only three games previewed for February. With the addition of two re-arranged matches, the month has now become more important and we could also add in the 1st of March game against Wycombe, which gives us six games again. In my view our aim must be an average of 2 points a game (Chesterfield are now virtually on the button), this allows us to drop a few points short of that and still be pretty sure of automatic promotion. We are, at the moment 9 points adrift of that target.
In simple terms we need at least 12 points from the next six fixtures, that will certainly keep us in the mix for the top three places and anything additional would help us make up the deficit. This is not an impossible task but a very tough one. I'll leave you with some statistics to bear in mind when you consider how easy the next six games are.
In today's games only Wycombe failed completely, of the other five future opponents ALL got some result against teams higher than them in the league. York won at Fleetwood, whilst the other four ended up with draws. It's a salient fact that, in this year's League Two, any team can beat (or draw) with any other team on their day. On the positive side, that's a hard fact for our promotion rivals as well as for ourselves.......as a number of them found out today.

Seriously?

Throwing the towel in when we are still in the top 7 with a quarter of the season left?!?!

We are in the mire but pull yourself together man, where's your bulldog spirit ?:smile:

Bulldog spirit I've got plenty of..........probably more than our team. It's bulls**t that I'm short of. :smile:

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

Replying to your own posts is proper madness

I can't quarrel with that! I should have just re-opened the thread :blush: There's something that's clearly upset me this afternoon.................can't imagine what it was.

 

[greyerfox]

Very difficult to argue against what Yogi says. The force is with Argyle. Form and logic suggest that they will take a play off spot very soon. Reckon on PB getting in 2 players this week as Ron sanctions one last throw of the dice in an attempt to address the lack of goals. If we claim a play off spot now PB will have earned his corn. But it does look unlikely, sadly.

 

[Rover John]

Lets just cut the crap, WE ARE NOT PLAYING GOOD ENOUGH TO MAKE THE PLAYOFFS END OF.

 

[Liam AAS]

We have 12 games left, 5 of which are against teams above us, one of which is against the team bottom of the table, another against the team bottom of the form table. There's a long way to go yet...

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

We have 12 games left, 5 of which are against teams above us, one of which is against the team bottom of the table, another against the team bottom of the form table. There's a long way to go yet...

There is indeed, quarter of the season...........so was I perhaps a bit hasty yesterday?......a typical knee-jerk reaction?
Let's realistically look at the likely task ahead of us to reach the play-offs. How have things changed since six games ago? Well, out of a possible 18 points we got 3 and when I was talking, at the end of January, about needing 2 points a game to keep us in with a good chance of automatic promotion (yes, it was that short a time ago) we now need to virtually win EVERY game...........that surely requires a pair of rose-tinted spectacles with VERY strong lenses! So, let's concentrate on the play-offs and what do we find? Keeping things VERY simple, to ensure a play-off place we probably need about 73 points, that takes us back, near enough exactly to the old two points a game from now on..........bearing in mind that over the last six we've only been capable of 0.5 points per game. That's going to take some monumental change around in form! Let's put it to the test over the next two games at Morecambe and Scunny. At least four points is required, perhaps just one win would start the momentum again. Paul Sturrock believes we can still do it, I will just politely disagree with him.
IIRC, as a kid I went to the Birmingham City Cup game in 1957. I think we were 1-5 down and my brother-in-law wanted to leave early. I begged with him to stay, thinking that a goal and we're back in it. We left early and the game ended 1-6!