Mighty Shrimper's £1,000 Challenge

[Mighty Shrimper]

Doncaster Rovers v West Ham - Saturday 13th August 2011

Away Win - Odds: 2.00 - Stake: £60 Single


I very rarely place a bet this far from kick off but at those odds and with Billy Sharp and James Hayter looking likely to miss this game after injuries against Brighton, I had to take it and with confidence.


Burton Albion v Shrewsbury & Plymouth v Rotherham - Saturday 13th August 2011

Away Wins - Odds: 6.15 - Stake: £15 Double


Same as above, the odds for the away wins here are excellent against a poor Burton side IMO and a Plymouth side who are lacking in quality against two of the divisions better sides.


Burnley v Burton Albion, Portsmouth v Barnet & Southampton v Torquay
Carling Cup 1st Round
Tuesday 9th August 2011

Home Wins - Odds: 3.03 - Stake: £20 Treble

After placing the above bets, i've been looking at this weekends games all week.

I currently have £15.67 after placing those bets which means if I want to place another bet and I stake £10 it'll be more than the 50% I stated in my rules and if I stake £7.83 it'll be less than the £10 minimum bet I stated in my rules.
For this reason, for my next bet I have decided the only way to do it is to put my remaining balance on.

Saturday 12th August 2011
Blackburn Rovers v Wolves - Away Win
Wigan v Norwich City - Away Win
Newcastle v Arsenal - Away Win
Watford v Derby County - Home Win

Bet: 4 Fold Accumulator - Odds: 52.47 - Stake: £15.67

 

[Mighty Shrimper]

Sunday 14th August 2011

Blackpool v Peterborough - Away Win
Cardiff City v Bristol City - Away Win

Bet: Double - Odds: 20.00 - Stake: £10


West Brom v Manchester United - Away Win

Bet: Single - Odds: 1.57 - Stake: £55

 

[Mighty Shrimper]

Week 2

Bets and Outcomes:

Doncaster Rovers v West Ham - Saturday 13th August 2011

Away Win - Odds: 2.00 - Stake: £60 Single - W IN

Burton Albion v Shrewsbury & Plymouth v Rotherham - Saturday 13th August 2011

Away Wins - Odds: 6.15 - Stake: £15 Double - LOSS

Burnley v Burton Albion, Portsmouth v Barnet & Southampton v Torquay
Carling Cup 1st Round
Tuesday 9th August 2011

Home Wins - Odds: 3.03 - Stake: £20 Treble - LOSS

Oxford United v Cardiff City - Carling Cup 1st Round - Wednesday 10th August 2011

Half Time/Full Time: Oxford/Draw - Odds: 15.00 - Stake: £10 - LOSS

Saturday 12th August 2011
Blackburn Rovers v Wolves - Away Win
Wigan v Norwich City - Away Win
Newcastle v Arsenal - Away Win
Watford v Derby County - Home Win

Bet: 4 Fold Accumulator - Odds: 52.47 - Stake: £15.67 - LOSS

Sunday 14th August 2011

Blackpool v Peterborough - Away Win
Cardiff City v Bristol City - Away Win

Bet: Double - Odds: 20.00 - Stake: £10 - LOSS


West Brom v Manchester United - Away Win

Bet: Single - Odds: 1.57 - Stake: £55 - WIN



Balance At Start Of The Week: 120.67

Balance After Week 2: £141.43


PROFIT: £41.43 :happy:

 

[Mighty Shrimper]

Manchester City v Swansea City - Monday 15th August 2011

Bet: Over 2.5 Goals - Odds: 1.85 - Stake: £30 Single
Bet: Yaya Toure To Score First - Odds: 8.50 - Stake: £10 Single
Bet: David Silva To Score First - Odds: 7.50 - Stake: £10 Single
Bet: Over 11 Corners - Odds: 1.90 - Stake £20

 

[Mighty Shrimper]

Toure has tones of chances and fluffs them all. Silva has tones of chances and hits the bar. Needed 1 more corner with 20 minutes left but did it happen? Of course it didnt! Still, at least I got the over 2.5 goals right.

 

[Mighty Shrimper]

Cant do a proper post because im driving to crawley but ive got £20 on Gillingham and Swindon tonight in a double.

 

[Mighty Shrimper]

Wednesday 17th August 2011

Cardiff City v Brighton - Home Win
Leicester City v Bristol City - Home Win
Millwall v Peterborough - Away Win
Blackpool v Derby County - Home Win

Bet: 4 Fold Accumulator - Odds: 22.25 - Stake: £10


Leicester City v Bristol City - Home Win
Blackpool v Derby County - Home

Bet: Double - Odds: 2.49 - Stake: £46.93

 

[Mighty Shrimper]

The next time i post a bet on here, put your house on the other teams to win.....

 

[Mighty Shrimper]

Thursday 18th August 2011 - Europa League Qualifying

HJK Helsinki v Schalke - Away Win
Hearts v Tottenham - Away Win
Slovan Bratislava v Roma - Away Win

Bet: Treble - Odds: 4.52 - Stake: £25

 

[Mighty Shrimper]

Saturday 20th August 2011

Aston Villa v Blackburn - Home Win
AFC Wimbledon v Hereford - Home Win
Southend v Burton - Home Win

Bet: Treble - Odds: 10.60 - Stake £10

Stevenage v Hartlepool - Away Win

Bet: Single - Odds: 4.33 - Stake: £15

 

[Mighty Shrimper]

Week 3

Bets and Outcomes

Manchester City v Swansea City - Monday 15th August 2011

Bet: Over 2.5 Goals - Odds: 1.85 - Stake: £30 Single - WON
Bet: Yaya Toure To Score First - Odds: 8.50 - Stake: £10 Single - LOST
Bet: David Silva To Score First - Odds: 7.50 - Stake: £10 Single - LOST
Bet: Over 11 Corners - Odds: 1.90 - Stake £20 - LOST

Wednesday 17th August 2011

Cardiff City v Brighton - Home Win
Leicester City v Bristol City - Home Win
Millwall v Peterborough - Away Win
Blackpool v Derby County - Home Win

Bet: 4 Fold Accumulator - Odds: 22.25 - Stake: £10 - LOST


Leicester City v Bristol City - Home Win
Blackpool v Derby County - Home

Bet: Double - Odds: 2.49 - Stake: £46.93 - LOST

Thursday 18th August 2011 - Europa League Qualifying

HJK Helsinki v Schalke - Away Win
Hearts v Tottenham - Away Win
Slovan Bratislava v Roma - Away Win

Bet: Treble - Odds: 4.52 - Stake: £25 - LOST

Saturday 20th August 2011

Aston Villa v Blackburn - Home Win
AFC Wimbledon v Hereford - Home Win
Southend v Burton - Home Win

Bet: Treble - Odds: 10.60 - Stake £10 - LOST

Stevenage v Hartlepool - Away Win

Bet: Single - Odds: 4.33 - Stake: £15 - LOST


Balance at start if the week - £141.43

Balance after Week 3 - £0

Profit/Loss - £100 :'(

So, what a bad week!

Looking back at the first 3 weeks of this, it's clear that i've placed bets without really knowing what teams are going to be playing like at the moment. Not only have I made a mistake with that, i've also been placing large stakes on these bets which I shouldn't be doing at the start of the season.

I think i've been a little unlucky but largely, it's been a poor show from me so far!

It's time to top up the balance which I have now done so lets see if I can learn from the mistakes i've made so far and make some progress.

 

[Mighty Shrimper]

Monday 23rd August 2011

Carling Cup

Bournemouth v West Brom - Away Win
Aston Villa v Hereford - Villa -1.5 Goals to win
Brighton v Sunderland - Away Win

Bet - Treble - Odds: 6.87 - Stake - £10

Bury v Leicester
Bristol Rovers v Watford
Cardiff v Huddersfield
Wycombe v Notts Forest

Bet - 4 Fold (Both Teams to Score) - Odds: 7.20 - Stake: £10

 

[Mighty Shrimper]

Come on Wycombe

 

[Mighty Shrimper]

You beauuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuty!

 

[Its Only A Game]

Looking back at the first 3 weeks of this, it's clear that i've placed bets without really knowing what teams are going to be playing like at the moment. Not only have I made a mistake with that, i've also been placing large stakes on these bets which I shouldn't be doing at the start of the season.

I think i've been a little unlucky but largely, it's been a poor show from me so far!

It's time to top up the balance which I have now done so lets see if I can learn from the mistakes i've made so far and make some progress.

I don't think its necessarily the teams that you are backing that are the problem but more like the number of matches in each bet.

Having stated that you were going to concentrate on singles & doubles and rarely trebles........you have already placed 11 bets of trebles/4 folds. That used to be my downfall, going for the large returns! Even if you bet on Man Utd, Chelsea & Arsenal to win each week in treble, I doubt it would pay out too often. There is always a "coupon buster" kicking around somewhere.

Stick to singles and some doubles and go slowly but surely.

 

[Grayson]

Sound advice. Particularly as your challenge is over a 9 month period.

The temptation in betting in England is the amount of games to choose from. My experiences have taught me to avoid the Premier League and Championship completely, as the former has no value and the latter is a minefield. I only ever back long-shots in the Carling Cup (had singles on both Macclesfield and Barnet in Round 1, did nothing last night though!) as that competition is a minefield too. Learning which competitions to avoid is a good start to profitting as you start increasing your percentage of successful bets.

I find Leagues 1 and 2 are more stable. You find many even money shots in those leagues which, if in the Premiership, would be 4/6 at best - most punters have no idea on our divisions. Search for those, study in detail and try not get carried away by all the choice!

Of course I may be chatting complete rubbish, but I've spoken from my experiences over the past 4 years.

 

[class]

I would have had a decent return on a Brighton, Charlton, Palace treble last night if Brighton had won 1-0 in normal time!! :punch:

 

[Uncle Leo]

I don't think its necessarily the teams that you are backing that are the problem but more like the number of matches in each bet.

Having stated that you were going to concentrate on singles & doubles and rarely trebles........you have already placed 11 bets of trebles/4 folds. That used to be my downfall, going for the large returns! Even if you bet on Man Utd, Chelsea & Arsenal to win each week in treble, I doubt it would pay out too often. There is always a "coupon buster" kicking around somewhere.

Stick to singles and some doubles and go slowly but surely.

Sound advice. Particularly as your challenge is over a 9 month period.

The temptation in betting in England is the amount of games to choose from. My experiences have taught me to avoid the Premier League and Championship completely, as the former has no value and the latter is a minefield. I only ever back long-shots in the Carling Cup (had singles on both Macclesfield and Barnet in Round 1, did nothing last night though!) as that competition is a minefield too. Learning which competitions to avoid is a good start to profitting as you start increasing your percentage of successful bets.

I find Leagues 1 and 2 are more stable. You find many even money shots in those leagues which, if in the Premiership, would be 4/6 at best - most punters have no idea on our divisions. Search for those, study in detail and try not get carried away by all the choice!

Of course I may be chatting complete rubbish, but I've spoken from my experiences over the past 4 years.

Wise words from both there.

Another tip is to look at Asian Handicap Line (AHL) betting, rather than normal win-draw-win. As AHLs (a) only have two options and (b) are targeting the ultra competitive Far East market, the bookmaker's margins are much lower, typically 2/3% rather than 6% and upwards.

It's a small edge for the punter but an important one. For example, I fancied Barcelona to beat Real last week. Whilst the win-draw-win odds on Barcelona were 1.91, I was able to back them on the AHL -0.5 goals (i.e. the same as backing them to win) at 1.975.

I won't be retiring on the difference it made (only a couple of quid) but long term it's the way to go.

Incidentally I ignored by own advice by backing Brighton yesterday on the win-draw-win market where a bet on the AHL would have returned a profit. Bugger.

 

[Grayson]

Good point. Sometimes there is a huge difference. I've seen on B365 a home side be priced at evens (2.0) but the -0.5 AHL is 2.2. Seldom are the prices the same even with the same bookmaker so it's always worth checking and taking the bigger price.

 

[Mighty Shrimper]

All really good points.

I do intend to do singles and doubles but as It's only a game has said, it's the large returns that seem to turn my head. When I look at games in depth, I find myself convinved that a certain team will come out on top and end up putting together a treble or accumulator which I know its dangerous ground and from experience I know that somebody will more than likely let you down in those kinds of bets but again, its the large returns and the fact i've sold the selection to myself so I go for it more than I should.

I got too carried away during last weeks betting, i've been placing too many bets with around 60%-70% confidence which i'm annoyed with myself for doing. When i'm very confident in my selection, my judgement rarely lets me down.

TBH, I haven't really looked in AH betting that much but I will have a good look at it with interest after the things Uncle Leo and Museshrimper have said.

Trebles and above are now off the table for now. I WILL stick to the singles and doubles for the time being and see how that goes. :cool: