Maddie - the plot thickens

[fatshrimp]

There is so many ways it can be explained

I can't think of many..!

 

[Einstein]

There is so many ways it can be explained

Please enlighten me because as a law-abiding citizen I cannot think of any.

 

[Cricko]

Please enlighten me because as a law-abiding citizen I cannot think of any.

And Pro-Footballer.

 

[FeedTheGoat]

I'll say it again, the chances that Kate McCann is guilty of this are so infinitessimally small that they can be discounted as fanciful or ludicrous; sadly, the same cannot yet be said for Gerry

I just can't agree with that, how can you possibly be so sure? - Obviously everyone here is working on assumptions, but imagine if it were the mother and the police discounted it purely on the basis that she is the mother. There would be utter outrage and most importantly, no justice for Maddy.

to use my earlier example, no doctor had ever killed 300 patients before, but that doesn't make it impossible to happen. How would the victims' families feel if Shipman had been let off because it was improbable that a doctor would do such a thing? There's a first for everything, and to clear a suspect just because of their profession or relationship with victim is purely wrong.

 

[palexander]

That's 8, in the space of 20 years, in a country with a murder rate about 10 times as high as the UK per capita of population thanks, in no small part, to the ready accessibility to firearms.

How many of those cases, above, were there no mental history issues (which, given that Kate McCann is doctor, she will have been screened for prior to being given her practising certificate by the GMC)?

I'll say it again, the chances that Kate McCann is guilty of this are so infinitessimally small that they can be discounted as fanciful or ludicrous; sadly, the same cannot yet be said for Gerry - although given the gross incompetence of the Portuguese police, the likeliest outcome must be that the killer (since I think we must presume that Madeleine is dead) will never be found.

As a final thought - and pardon my cynicism, but I am married to a former journalist, so I've been a bit closer to the coal-face than most - the job of newspapers is not merely to tell the news - it's also to shift copy.

What's the more lurid headline that's likely to grab your attention?

Kate McCann Probably Not Guilty

or

Kate McCann Named As Suspect

:confused:

Whilst I dont really agree with your reasoning on this MtS, you are right about the papers. First thing I noticed this morning was the Mirror and its front page...

========================================================

Kate McCann interviewed and Gerry to be interviewed tomorrow - they fear they will be named as
SUSPECTS

==============================================

Along with 2 large seperate pics of them - looked like a lynching to me.

Thought that was amazing to be honest...
​

 

[Matt the Shrimp]

I just can't agree with that, how can you possibly be so sure? - Obviously everyone here is working on assumptions, but imagine if it were the mother and the police discounted it purely on the basis that she is the mother. There would be utter outrage and most importantly, no justice for Maddy.

I can't be sure. But given the gross incompetence shown to date by the Portuguese police, I think that chances that you can prove it's her are infinitiessimally small.

I always approach cases like this from a presumption of innocence. It seems to me that, on the basis of some lurid headlines and a long interview & subsequent naming as "suspect" (although I have no idea what the Portuguese legal concept of arguida actually means), there are plenty on here who appear to be operating on a presumption of guilt.

In any police investigation, you should always be looking for the most logical and rational explanations. Start with the father, then any other male relatives, then friends of the family, then you look at the staff, then you look at local paedos / murderers, then perhaps if there were any paedos / murderers from further afield in the area. Then, finally, when you have exhausted all other possible causes, you look at the mother.

Having studied this area a little in criminology, those are - statistically speaking - the most likely suspects in descending order of probability.

So far as I can tell, the Portuguese police have not, nor will they ever, get even remotely close to exhausting all the other possible causes - and so they've resorted to blaming the person they at least have access to... she'll do, because we've got f*** all else to go on.

For my money, that is no basis at all to think she's guilty - and so, I have to presume she's innocent.

Matt

 

[southend_shrimp]

For my money, that is no basis at all to think she's guilty - and so, I have to presume she's innocent.

Matt

If that is your logic how comes you seem to be making out Gerry is a suspect when he is has never been annouced as a suspect yet she has, if the police belive both parents had something to do with it surely they'd announce he was a suspect aswel not just her.

 

[Matt the Shrimp]

If that is your logic how comes you seem to be making out Gerry is a suspect when he is has never been annouced as a suspect yet she has, if the police belive both parents had something to do with it surely they'd announce he was a suspect aswel not just her.

(a) Because they're interviewing him today. If she's been named as arguida, I'd be stunned if he's not also arguida by the end of their interview today. If he's not so named, then maybe this case is taking a truly shocking and unexpected turn. But there's been an awful lot of jumping to conclusions on here - when conclusions are absolutely the one thing that the Portuguese police have none of, at all.

(b) Because, statistically (and sadly), when it comes to child abuse, the father and close male relatives are always the chief suspects. Very, very harsh on every Dad out there... but statistically it's fathers and male relatives who are most frequently guilty. Thank heavens that these cases are pretty rare in the totality of crime.

Matt

 

[southend_shrimp]

(a) I'd be stunned if he's not also arguida by the end of their interview today. Matt

They say innocent till proven guilty! Also if he isnt named as a suspect after today and she is ruled out then will make a very intresting story in days to come.

 

[Up the Shrimpers]

If that is your logic how comes you seem to be making out Gerry is a suspect when he is has never been annouced as a suspect yet she has, if the police belive both parents had something to do with it surely they'd announce he was a suspect aswel not just her.

Gerry is being questioned right at this moment. He could yet be named as a suspect.

 

[Matt the Shrimp]

They say innocent till proven guilty! Also if he isnt named as a suspect after today and she is ruled out then will make a very intresting story in days to come.

They're both innocent until proven guilty in a court of law! All I'm saying is that, based on the way in which they've conducted the case so far, all the signs would suggest that the manner in which the police will act is by naming Gerry as arguida.

Still doesn't mean either of them is guilty. I think Kate is innocent despite the fact that she's been named as arguida.

Matt

 

[C C Csiders]

Gerry is being questioned right at this moment.

Put on a fake handlebar moustache and speak in a frightfully, frightfully posh accent, and say that again. I believe it is a quote from the early 50's British War film "Reach for the Skies"

 

[Up the Shrimpers]

This is pretty bad as well:-
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/london/6983491.stm

 

[C C Csiders]

subsequent naming as "suspect" (although I have no idea what the Portuguese legal concept of arguida actually means),

Arguida doo doo doo
Push pineapple, shake the tree

Hope that makes it clearer for you Matt.

 

[londonblue]

Please enlighten me because as a law-abiding citizen I cannot think of any.

Maybe the DNA evidence is flawed? Blimey, her DNA can't be that different to her siblings. Maybe one of them bled in the car?

 

[Matt the Shrimp]

This is pretty bad as well:-
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/london/6983491.stm

Yet again, a father and a non-biological mother.

I'm not making the statsitics bit up, you know. Absent post natal depression or other mental illness, attacks by a biological mother on her children are unfeasibly rare. Mother nature designed us that way... the survival of the species sort of depends on it.

Matt

 

[Matt the Shrimp]

Arguida doo doo doo
Push pineapple, shake the tree

Hope that makes it clearer for you Matt.

:D

Clear as crystal. Or at least a crystal on a black lace doilly.

 

[osymandus]

Yeah not sure why the father would be any more likely.

If the parents did it (and a big IF), then they must have been both involved as I cant see how either of them would have been able to hide it from the other. After all if she had accidentally drugged her and disposed of the body how could she do so without him seeing as the body would have to be miles away.

Sounds too unlikely either of them could have done it.

Genticly male primates are more likley to "dispose" of offspirng then females , if they aquire newer sorces of spreading their gentic material .
its not nice but its a natural response (sourece The Red Queen ).
Whats being realised and how theyve reacted over teh investigation , its does seem like one huge balls up.
Remember the Inspector in charge of teh case is being investigated for the imprisonment of a woman fasley accuresed of killing her child.

 

[southend_shrimp]

Whats worse then being Mrs McCann at the moment?

Being the Paulbearer at Pavortti's funeral!

^ Only kidding the guy was a legend

Bit sick that people are selling tickets to his funeral on ebay though!

There only a tenor!

 

[Yellow Army]

Wrong timming, but Kate McCann, - would you?