After Bury - Four Big Games

[Agent Lomas]

We have four games in twelve days after Bury, and three of them are at home.

Mansfield (H) - 03/04
Hartlepool (A) - 06/04
Tranmere (H) - 11/04
Newport (H) - 14/04

Looking at this games, you would think we could get at least six points from the four, maybe nine, but I might be pushing it there.

Its these games that, in my opinion will have a huge impact on where we finish.

In the reverse fixtures, we won three and lost one:

Newport (A) - L 0-1
Mansfield (A) - W 2-1
Hartlepool (H) - W 2-0
Tranmere (A) - W 2-1


The form books appear to be on our side too, based on the last five games:

Mansfield (17th) - L/W/L/D/W - Most recent result: Hartlepool 1-0 Mansfield - They know they aren't safe yet
Hartlepool (24th) - W/W/W/L/L - Most recent result (As above) - One point off safety, so will be up for it when we visit
Tranmere (22nd) - L/W/L/L/L - Most recent result: Burton (H) - L 1-4 - Fighting for their lives, like Hartlepool. Will know what to expect from us
Newport (7th) - D/W/D/L/L - Most recent result: Plymouth (A) - 0-0 - The toughest of the lot. Will take a point


Obviously, other results will need to go our way, (our main rivals' next five games are listed, so this includes saturday, when we play Bury):

Burton - Stevenage (H), Plymouth (A), Wycombe (H), Luton (A), Carlisle (H)

Shrewsbury - Portsmouth (A), Dagenham (H), Mansfield (A), Exeter (H), Bury (A)

Wycombe (Excluding tonight's game v Luton) - Dagenham (A), Oxford (H), Burton (A), Cheltenham (H), Exeter (H)

Bury - Southend (H), Cambridge (A), Morecambe (H), Newport (A), Shrewsbury (H)

Luton (Excluding tonight's game v Wycombe) - Northampton (A), Exeter (H), Tranmere (A), Burton (H), Dagenham (A)

Newport - Accrington (A), Hartlepool (H), Exeter (A), Bury (H), Southend (A)

Plymouth - Cheltenham (A), Burton (H), Portsmouth (A), Mansfield (H), AFC Wimbledon (H)

 

[AndyT]

We'd be better off if they were all away!

 

[Shrimper2thecore]

We must win all 4. Or at least a minimum of 10 points.

It is important that we ensure we finish 5th at the lowest, to at least give us an "advantage" in the play offs

 

[Angell Delight]

We must win all 4. Or at least a minimum of 10 points.

It is important that we ensure we finish 5th at the lowest, to at least give us an "advantage" in the play offs

I don't see having the second leg of the play-offs at home as an advantage for this side. We're much, much better away and I'd actually feel more confident in knowing what we have to do away from home than at Roots Hall. Remember in our last 2 play-off campaigns we were at home in the second leg and failed to reach Wembley!

 

[Ayrshire Blue]

We must win all 4. Or at least a minimum of 10 points.

It is important that we ensure we finish 5th at the lowest, to at least give us an "advantage" in the play offs

Agreed and we need to be going into the play offs with a nice bit of momentum.

 

[danburyshrimper]

Agreed and we need to be going into the play offs with a nice bit of momentum.

Phil Brown has sussed this out , which he why he is making crazy substitutions in order not to pick up too many wins in games YET. Then we can actually start building the momentum in the last 3 games , and be steaming into the play offs in 7th place full of confidence.
Simples. :winking:

 

[amsemp]

Oddschecker say the bookies have got Burton, Shrewsbury, Wycombe and Bury as odds on to go up. Us and Luton are poised to have a small chance. They don't fancy Newport or Plymouth though.

Pains me to say it, but I feel they may be right. I just don't fancy our chances in the playoffs. The pressure seems to get to us.

 

[Clinton Baptiste]

Personally dont think momentum, where you finish, home or away leg first makes any difference to the play offs but Im sure someone will have stats to prove me otherwise!

 

[Jim Levenstein]

Oddschecker say the bookies have got Burton, Shrewsbury, Wycombe and Bury as odds on to go up. Us and Luton are poised to have a small chance. They don't fancy Newport or Plymouth though.

Pains me to say it, but I feel they may be right. I just don't fancy our chances in the playoffs. The pressure seems to get to us.

Have to agree our record against those at the top is very poor. Can't see us making Wembley

 

[chapperzUK]

Personally dont think momentum, where you finish, home or away leg first makes any difference to the play offs but Im sure someone will have stats to prove me otherwise!

Last 10 years in League 2:

2013/14 - Fleetwood (4th) - Away leg first (win) & Form before = W5 D3 L2 (last 10) / W2 D2 L1 (last 5)
2012/13 - Bradford (7th) - Home leg first (lost) & Form before = W5 D3 L2 (last 10) / W2 D2 L1 (last 5)
2011/12 - Crewe (7th) - Home leg first (win) & Form before = W5 D5 L0 (last 10) / W2 D3 L0 (last 5)
2010/11 - Stevenage (6th) - Home leg first (win) & Form before = W5 D2 L3 (last 10) / W1 D2 L2 (last 5)
2009/10 - Dagenham (7th) - Home leg first (win) & Form before = W6 D2 L2 (last 10) / W4 D0 L1 (last 5)
2008/09 - Gillingham (5th) - Away leg first (draw) & Form before = W4 D3 L3 (last 10) / W3 D1 L1 (last 5)
2007/08 - Stockport (4th) - Away leg first (draw) & Form before = W6 D2 L2 (last 10) / W2 D1 L2 (last 5)
2006/07 - Bristol Rovers (6th) - Home leg first (win) & Form before = W7 D2 L1 (last 10) / W3 D2 L0 (last 5)
2005/06 - Cheltenham (5th) - Away leg first (win) & Form before = W5 D3 L2 (last 10) / W3 D1 L1 (last 5)
2004/05 - Southend (4th) - Away leg first (draw) & Form before = W5 D2 L3 (last 10) / W1 D1 L3 (last 5)

Does being at home or away make a difference?
Over the last 10 seasons, it is split at 5 each so that would point to a no. Only 1 team managed to lose the first leg and end up gaining promotion (Bradford in 12/13).

Does the position in the table help?
Over the last 10 seasons, it seems very evenly split with 3 teams from 4th, 2 teams from 5th, 2 teams from 6th and 3 teams from 7th going up via play-offs.

Does momentum help?
Looking at the last 10 games, all but 1 team (Gillingham in 08/09) had won at least 5 games with all teams picking up at least half the points available. Looking at the last 5 games and all but 2 teams (Stevenage in 10/11 & Us in 04/05) won at least 2 matches.

 

[Barling Magna]

We're better away from home, but surely we can beat Hartlepool and Tranmere at home. I fancy us to beat Newport as well, but then lose to Mansfield. So, nine points is my guess..........

 

[Somerset Ex-TTB]

I think 10 points is a must and very achievable. If we get a positive result at Bury, then there is still an outside chance of sneaking the top 3.

Would give us 13 points from the next 5 games, which would give us 76 with 3 games left? :stunned:

 

[AndyT]

Good post 'Chapperz'

Looking at those figs, of course Crewe stands out, but hardly any of those sides were undefeated in the last 5 league games, so I'd discount momentum, regardless of where you finish.

Think we are quite well set-up for 2 legged matches as we don't let many goals in.

Looking at that list, promotion has hardly done those sides any favours.

Only two are above halfway in League 1 and the majority are still in League 2 or worse (Stockport)!

 

[mrsblue]

Personally I still think we may all be in shock come May,I can see it now Phil jigging on the hallowed turf being chased by Ronny.

Then signing a 5 year deal:stunned:

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

Congratulations to both agent lomas & ChapperzUK..........I don't know where you get the energy, enthusiasm and time to research such calculations! Quite honestly, whereas you may be able to predict what other sides may do, I've totally given up on us..............apart from thinking that Tranmere, Mansfield and Newport will probably bring us in three points with 0-0 draws. Think I'll just let fate take its natural course.
One thing, with concern for his injury, that no one seems to have pointed out, is that we are likely to be without Prosser for a while and more importantly Hurst. The latter may be on or off form but we don't exactly have too many alternative options, without playing Leonard out of position. Going towards the probable play-offs with one fit natural wide player, is not too good a plan.

:omg: I forgot Weston!

 

[danburyshrimper]

Atkinson on the Left & Worrell on the right would be fine with me
( NOT THE OTHER WAY ROUND MR BROWN!!! :angry:)

Also Lenny could move wide right , Timlin could go left to fit Deegan centrally.
Also Weston :omg: , and maybe Payne might be less anonymous if he plays wide .

So plenty of options

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

Atkinson on the Left & Worrell on the right would be fine with me
( NOT THE OTHER WAY ROUND MR BROWN!!! :angry:)

Also Lenny could move wide right , Timlin could go left to fit Deegan centrally.
Also Weston :omg: , and maybe Payne might be less anonymous if he plays wide .

So plenty of options

You've immediately filled me with new found confidence! :winking:

 

[greyerfox]

Well done Chapperz. To think that two of the promoted sides are now non-league and one, Stockport, in Conference North, playing the likes of North Ferriby Utd for example. Be grateful for small mercies!

 

[marlow17101032]

Can't see the home form improving for the rest of the season ,
playing some teams there fighting to stay up ,Christ it's nearly
april and we still have not worked out how to win these games.

 

[BrettieAngell]

so does the game at Bury not count then?