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Brown’s First 5 Matches

WickfordBlue_

Active member
Joined
May 4, 2021
Messages
12
I’ve had a look at some of the stats from Brown’s first 5 matches compared to the reverse fixtures from earlier in the season with Molesley.

Molesley as manager // Brown as manager
Points: 8 // 8
Non-Penalty Goals For: 5 // 4
Non-Penalty xG For: 3.57 // 3.57
Non-Penalty Goals Against: 5 // 4
Non-Penalty xG Against: 6.01 // 6.23

This shows we’ve collected the same number of points against these sides with both MM and Brown as manager, scored and conceded similar amounts of goals, and posted similar xG stats for and against.

I also looked at these stats on a 5-Game Rolling Average.

After Brown’s first 5 matches we’ve had a similar non-penalty xG as with MM (post-embargo). This means, based on the shots we’ve had, we’ve been expected to score a similar number of goals.

One other thing is that the amount of non-penalty goals we’ve actually scored since Brown’s arrival has roughly risen back up to the amount we were scoring from Match # 17-34 on a 5-Game Rolling Average. This has dropped off massively after the FGR away victory, where up to Molesley’s dismissal we only scored 2 non-penalty goals in 10 matches, from an xG of 7.36. For context, in the 10 games prior to this we scored 8 non-penalty goals from an xG of 6.89.

Imo, I think we’ve had more intensity to our play since Brown’s arrival, but I think it’s easy to mistake this for an improvement in our attacking output. Our inability to score regular goals produce high xG numbers to me shows there is a lack of creativity in the squad, instead of it being solely down to us not having a striker to finish the chances off (although obviously this would also help!).

Fwiw, I think MM knew we didn’t have the quality/squad balance to create loads of chances on a regular basis, so he thought the best way to win was to adopt a more pragmatic approach, maximising the strengths of the squad, by keeping it tight whilst trying to nick a goal or two. I think this is different to adopting an ultra-defensive style, and imo this meant that we actually had a decent chance of survival so late in the season. That’s not to say that had we kept him we would’ve had a better chance of survival than with Brown - I think we were down anyway.

Perhaps like others, it’s difficult for me to be 100% behind appointing Brown, but I think that now he’s here he needs to be offered the job for next season asap, so we can actually start planning now and have a decent, organised pre-season. Either way, any managerial appointment can only be a successful one if he’s backed by Ron. If this seasons showed us anything, it’s that you can’t expect to compete when you’re under an embargo for the first third of the season, whilst giving teams around you a massive head start. Who would’ve thought.
 
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