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Coronavirus (Non-Politics)

Tinks

X Factor Winner 1943 and PHB
Joined
Nov 17, 2006
Messages
4,746
Location
Eastwood
Looking at the positive test data downloaded from https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ it looks like we might be at an inflection point nationally. Taking a rolling 7 day total to eliminate weekend bias, and assuming some increases to the last couple of days as test results get reported, looks like numbers will be starting to increase. Filtering the data to just Essex, Thurrock and Southend there is a clear increase in the number of positive tests over the past 2 weeks. Not clear to me if this is the virus increasing or due to number of tests increasing. Anyone know where you can get comparable number of test data?
We are testing some of our elderly people (especially in care homes) on a regular basis now and surprisingly we are getting some positive results back on people who are asymptomatic so, that in itself is a little worrying as it begs the questions how many more people in the lower age group are carrying and being unaware.
If you are not aware Southend Council publish quite a bit of data on their website on local figures etc,
Nearly all of my colleagues have now been tested for the antibodies (myself included) although the results in this part of the country are taking around 10-14 days to return.
 

Leigh_Seasider

Sunning it on the Essex Riviera
Joined
Aug 31, 2019
Messages
1,319
Location
Leigh-on-Sea
We are testing some of our elderly people (especially in care homes) on a regular basis now and surprisingly we are getting some positive results back on people who are asymptomatic so, that in itself is a little worrying as it begs the questions how many more people in the lower age group are carrying and being unaware.
If you are not aware Southend Council publish quite a bit of data on their website on local figures etc,
Nearly all of my colleagues have now been tested for the antibodies (myself included) although the results in this part of the country are taking around 10-14 days to return.
What this testing will tell us is how many people have had it with no symptoms or mild symptoms and I’d imagine those numbers will be significant. Remember this virus has been around in the UK since Dec/Jan. With everyone already carrying on as if things are normal (so it seems) and very little adherence to the Govt advice going on, I don’t think it’ll be longer than 2/3 weeks till the 2m rule is scrapped, pubs are reopened and talk of this “second wave” will gradually fade away. A lot of the aspects of social distancing will remain which isn’t a bad thing to be fair (screens, limiting people entering places, extra hygiene etc).
 

Tinks

X Factor Winner 1943 and PHB
Joined
Nov 17, 2006
Messages
4,746
Location
Eastwood
What this testing will tell us is how many people have had it with no symptoms or mild symptoms and I’d imagine those numbers will be significant. Remember this virus has been around in the UK since Dec/Jan. With everyone already carrying on as if things are normal (so it seems) and very little adherence to the Govt advice going on, I don’t think it’ll be longer than 2/3 weeks till the 2m rule is scrapped, pubs are reopened and talk of this “second wave” will gradually fade away. A lot of the aspects of social distancing will remain which isn’t a bad thing to be fair (screens, limiting people entering places, extra hygiene etc).
Totally agree and if we see any return then I suspect it may well be in the winter months when everyone starts going indoors. Personally, I don’t think the summer will be too bad as most people are outside and windows are open.
The one thing that I do believe they need to make more of an impact of is good hygiene and particular good hand washing hygiene as this is the most effective method.
 

THE SEVENTIES NORTH BANK

Life President
Joined
Dec 10, 2006
Messages
11,136
Location
SHOEBURY
Here's the Echo's article today about the rate of infection.

The rate of spread of the coronavirus infection across the UK is shrinking, new figures published by the Government show.

For the UK as a whole, the current growth rate is -4 per cent to -2 per cent and the estimate of the reproduction number, referred to as R, remains at 0.7 to 0.9.

The growth rate reflects how quickly the number of infections is changing day by day, and, as the number of infections decreases, is another way of keeping track of the virus.
If the growth rate is greater than zero, and therefore positive, then the disease will grow, and if the growth rate is less than zero, then the disease will shrink.

It is an approximation of the change in the number of infections each day, and the size of the growth rate indicates the speed of change.

For example, a growth rate of plus 5 per cent is faster than a growth rate of plus 1 per cent, while a disease with a growth rate of minus 4 per cent will be shrinking faster than a disease with growth rate of minus 1 per cent.
Until the figures were published for the first time on Friday, the Government had only been giving details of the R value of the disease - the average number of people an infected person is likely to pass it on to.
R estimates do not indicate how quickly an epidemic is changing and different diseases with the same R can result in epidemics that grow at very different speeds.
For instance, a disease with R=2 with infection lasting years will grow much more slowly than a disease with R=2 with infection lasting days.
Growth rates provide different information from R estimates, by suggesting the size and speed of change, whereas the R value only gives data on the direction of change.
To calculate R, information on the time it takes for one set of people in an infected group to infect a new set of people in the next group is needed.

However, the growth rate is estimated using a range of data similar to R, but it does not depend on the "generation time" and so requires fewer assumptions to estimate.
Neither measure - R or growth rate - is better than the other but each provides information that is useful in monitoring the spread of a disease.
Experts say each should be considered alongside other measures of the spread of disease.
For the NHS England region, the R value is 0.7 to 0.9, and the growth rate is minus 4% to minus 1%.
The R values and growth rate for the following regions are:
  • East of England: 0.7-0.9, minus 6% to minus 1%
  • London: 0.7-1.0, minus 5% to plus 1%
  • Midlands: 0.8-1.0, minus 4% to 0%
  • North East and Yorkshire: 0.7-0.9, minus 5% to minus 1%
  • North West: 0.7-1.0, minus 4% to 0%
  • South East: 0.7-0.9, minus 5% to minus 1%
  • South West: 0.6-0.9, minus 6% to 0%
It is most likely that the estimates are somewhere towards the middle of this range.
Last week, the South West of England had the highest R value range at 0.8 to 1.1, while the East of England had the lowest at 0.7 to 0.9.
London, the Midlands, the North West and the South East have R values of 0.8 to 1.0, and the North East and Yorkshire are at 0.7 to 1.0.
Figures this week show the R value in the South West has dropped below 1.0, meaning it no longer has the highest value.
 

THE SEVENTIES NORTH BANK

Life President
Joined
Dec 10, 2006
Messages
11,136
Location
SHOEBURY
So the pubs will be open soon, but social distancing will be difficult in a lot of them, and also, how do you feel that members of staff have to keep your personal details for Three weeks?
 

Tinks

X Factor Winner 1943 and PHB
Joined
Nov 17, 2006
Messages
4,746
Location
Eastwood
I have recently received my results from my antibodies test which concluded I was positive with antibodies (basically means I have had COVID-19). Hardly surprising considering what job I do and the fa t I was quite poorly with it and developed pneumonia but, now I have received an email saying would I consider donating my antibody plasma.
Has anyone donated?
I don’t really have an issue donating but wondered whether it was a generic email sent to everyone who tested positive for antibodies
 

Mad Cyril

Grand Poobah of Leopard Lodge
Joined
Oct 29, 2003
Messages
15,929
Location
Flavour country
So the pubs will be open soon, but social distancing will be difficult in a lot of them, and also, how do you feel that members of staff have to keep your personal details for Three weeks?

My personal details are already written on most pub toilet cubicle doors in Southend so I am not bothered.
 

Tinks

X Factor Winner 1943 and PHB
Joined
Nov 17, 2006
Messages
4,746
Location
Eastwood
So the pubs will be open soon, but social distancing will be difficult in a lot of them, and also, how do you feel that members of staff have to keep your personal details for Three weeks?
Mmm, slightly concerning as in most any persona information held is confidential and as such disclosure as to be at the consent of the person. Still I suppose if you hand over your personal details you are in effect giving consent but, it is what the “pub or establishment” do with that information.
Within work we have to conform to very strict governance around people’s personal information so I would clearly ask what processes they have in place to ensure confidentiality
 

GBJ

The Font of all Knowledge
Joined
Nov 2, 2008
Messages
10,503
Location
Grays
So the pubs will be open soon, but social distancing will be difficult in a lot of them
True.

And the 1m+ rule is meaningless in most situations too, as It’s just returning to normality.

When’s the last time you stood/sat in a pub with some friends, and all stood less than 1m apart?
 

Ricky Otto

President
Joined
Mar 8, 2007
Messages
6,076
Location
Chelmsford
I have recently received my results from my antibodies test which concluded I was positive with antibodies (basically means I have had COVID-19). Hardly surprising considering what job I do and the fa t I was quite poorly with it and developed pneumonia but, now I have received an email saying would I consider donating my antibody plasma.
Has anyone donated?
I don’t really have an issue donating but wondered whether it was a generic email sent to everyone who tested positive for antibodies
How long did it take to get results? My other half is in the MET and she has got a new cough so she took a test last week, she had to chase up results this week as she can't go into work until she gets results. I thought this was very bad considering she is a key worker.

Also what test did you take? was it the drive through one where you put the swab down your throat and then up your nose? I have seen a number of people who have taken this test post on facebook and all of their tests have come back inconclusive. It makes me wonder how wildly inaccurate the official figures could be.
 

Leigh_Seasider

Sunning it on the Essex Riviera
Joined
Aug 31, 2019
Messages
1,319
Location
Leigh-on-Sea
True.

And the 1m+ rule is meaningless in most situations too, as It’s just returning to normality.

When’s the last time you stood/sat in a pub with some friends, and all stood less than 1m apart?
This. Exactly. Taxes on alcohol are shall we say, useful. Who’s going to enforce social distancing in pubs, the bar staff? I think it’s very much a case of whether you want to risk it and many will, many won’t. Stay safe out there!
 

Tinks

X Factor Winner 1943 and PHB
Joined
Nov 17, 2006
Messages
4,746
Location
Eastwood
How long did it take to get results? My other half is in the MET and she has got a new cough so she took a test last week, she had to chase up results this week as she can't go into work until she gets results. I thought this was very bad considering she is a key worker.

Also what test did you take? was it the drive through one where you put the swab down your throat and then up your nose? I have seen a number of people who have taken this test post on facebook and all of their tests have come back inconclusive. It makes me wonder how wildly inaccurate the official figures could be.
Hi RO,
I had the antibody test to determine whether I had antibodies for the virus - which means I have had Covid in the past. My test was was via blood and currently available for all NHS staff
I have not had the swab test but I do know lots who have had it.
The swab needs to be taken at the back of the throat and through a nasal passage at the back. If a swab comes back inconclusive it most likely means it was not a good swab and will need re-swabbing. Don’t worry I have had lots of patients that have needed to be re- swabbed.
On average the results are being returned within 3 days now however, some parts f the country and giving out results within hours.
Until she receives the results she must follow the isolation rules and self- isolate for a minimum of 7 days anyone else in the house must isolate for the 14 day period.
Hope that helps x
 

Supernaut

Director
Joined
Feb 2, 2010
Messages
2,592
I have recently received my results from my antibodies test which concluded I was positive with antibodies (basically means I have had COVID-19). Hardly surprising considering what job I do and the fa t I was quite poorly with it and developed pneumonia but, now I have received an email saying would I consider donating my antibody plasma.
Has anyone donated?
I don’t really have an issue donating but wondered whether it was a generic email sent to everyone who tested positive for antibodies
I just asked my wife who works for NHS Blood & Transport - she says that people who have had the virus are not being routinely contacted to donate antibodies. They're actually specifically looking for men who had the virus bad enough to be hospitalised, and are actively seeking Asian men to donate.
 

Ricky Otto

President
Joined
Mar 8, 2007
Messages
6,076
Location
Chelmsford
Hi RO,
I had the antibody test to determine whether I had antibodies for the virus - which means I have had Covid in the past. My test was was via blood and currently available for all NHS staff
I have not had the swab test but I do know lots who have had it.
The swab needs to be taken at the back of the throat and through a nasal passage at the back. If a swab comes back inconclusive it most likely means it was not a good swab and will need re-swabbing. Don’t worry I have had lots of patients that have needed to be re- swabbed.
On average the results are being returned within 3 days now however, some parts f the country and giving out results within hours.
Until she receives the results she must follow the isolation rules and self- isolate for a minimum of 7 days anyone else in the house must isolate for the 14 day period.
Hope that helps x
Hi Tinks

Yeah I've been told that the swab tests are very hard to get right for those who aren't professionals. The issue is that there isn't an option to have the test done by a professional, you have to do it yourself. It seems like a waste of time and effort if the majority of these tests come back inconclusive and just a tick box to say "we are doing ?? tests a day". I would have thought the police force would be able to get a reliable quick test but that obviously isn't the case.
It is what it is I suppose and isolating isn't a massive hardship. I just think the testing and figures may be way out. We'll see I guess
 

londonblue

Topgun Pilot
Joined
Feb 18, 2004
Messages
14,664
IMHO Pubs are the least worry, for me it is the crowding of public places with little or no social distancing which is likely to cause major issues eventually with the R rate. It is inevitable.
As I read on FB, opening things like pubs up doesn't mean it's safe, it just means they have room for you in ITU.
 
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