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RHB

Super Moderator ⭐
Staff member
Joined
Aug 14, 2009
Messages
21,952
Location
Westcliff riviera
There is always a lot of talk about the number of points needed for Southend not to end up in the bottom 4 at the end of the season. 50 points appears to be the bench mark but I've never truly known why. Is that figure based on previous seasons stats, or have there been clubs relegated recently having reached that total?

Points experts, what's our bottom line for another season in FL1?
 

MK Shrimper

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 6, 2005
Messages
52,329
Get the median value of the points gained by the last relegated teams from the last 10 years.
 

mattitouk

Life President
Joined
Oct 7, 2008
Messages
6,468
Location
RTW
For me it's 55 points, as we have been relegated before after securing 54 points. Granted not really recent though. It was back in the late 80's.
 

Up the Shrimpers

Life President
Joined
Oct 30, 2003
Messages
7,947
Get the median value of the points gained by the last relegated team. Find me the data and I'll do it.
49 points last season and a better than -25 goal difference would have been enough last season.
46 points and a better goal difference than -16 enough in 2015/6
50 points and a better goal difference than -18 enough in 2014/5

Right somebody else carry on.
 

AndyT

Lord of the Reedy River
Joined
Aug 7, 2010
Messages
11,936
Location
Hockley
Yep, I'd say 3 more wins, so 54 points.

That said, with only 4 home games left and some tricky away visits, including sides on a roll like Blackburn and Plymouth, I'd say we shouldn't count too many chickens just yet.
 

Mick

Life President
Joined
Oct 28, 2003
Messages
10,095
Or the same points with a better goal difference.

That scenario won't happen

No it probably won't happen. But it can happen remember 1989 when we were relegated on goal difference.

So it didn't happen in 1989 (we were actually relegated) and, as stated, it won't happen this year.

For us to be overtaken by 8 teams our goal difference, already poor, would become significantly worse and most of the teams overtaking us would be improving theirs.

I know a couple of freak results could skew that logic, but in reality if it comes down to goal difference (which I don't think for a minute it will) we've had it !
 

Stevencowling1

Schoolboy
Joined
Aug 7, 2015
Messages
72
What is the point in this post? There is more chance of playoffs then relegation!! We have taken 10 points from the last 15 is that relegation form? I just dont get the negativity !! Think positive and upwards
 

leroyjean

Youth Team
Joined
Mar 19, 2011
Messages
255
Anyone wanting an antidote to fear-of-the-drop may be interested to know that if we win tonight we should be closer in points to the playoffs than to the drop. 48 points is currently 10 (or 9 with GD) clear of the drop, and 6 (or 7) shy of the playoffs. If Peterborough win at Bury the playoff gap does worsen. Even so, and taking our ugly goal difference into account, a win for us tonight puts us 9 points away in either direction from clubs currently in the danger and salivation zones. UTB.
 
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