My Theory for Promotion.

[DoDTS]

I have a theory that you only have to beat the poorer sides to win promotion. If you were to lose against the top 8 clubs but beat the bottom 15 sides home and away you would have 90 points enough for automatic promotion and possibly the title. In the last 7 years in League 2 ninety points would have resulted in positions of 1st, 2nd, 1st, 3rd, 1st, 1st and 1st.

Posts on SZ worry about poor performances against the better sides but using my theory this doesn’t matter. So using the League Table as of today, how does the theory hold out so far:


Played 12 of the bottom 15 (Bradford, Aldershot and Wimbledon still to play)
10 wins 2 draws (Northampton and Bristol Rovers)
so 4 points behind schedule.

Played 8 out of 8 of the top sides.
Won 3 (Shrewsbury, Gillingham and Torquay) drawn 1 (Morecambe) lost 4 (Crawley, Cheltenham, Burton and Swindon)
so 10 points ahead of schedule.

Overall 6 points ahead of schedule would result in a final tally of 96 points, I’ll settle for that.

Obviously if you do beat the top sides your taking points off your rivals, but if you can amass 90 odd points it doesn't matter.

 

[Somerset Ex-TTB]

Good maths, I like that. Can't believe we haven't lost a game to anyone in the bottom 15 home or away, that is some stat, that I hope is the same this time in 2 weeks :-)

I have always thought that to win a title you need roughly 2 points a game (92 points in a season), and we are 2 ahead of that at the moment and will be 3 ahead if we win tonight, so the target of 96 points based on the first 20 games looks realistic.

Although you never know what will happen!

 

[silentshrimper]

I like alot! Unfortunately can't see Crawley budging so we may have to be happy with second or third. That will do though!

 

[Somerset Ex-TTB]

An update on DoDTS's theory after another poor performance against a top 8 side.

Played 17 of the bottom 15 (30 Games)
12 wins 4 draws (Northampton, Daggers, Morecombe and Bristol Rovers)
1 defeat (Bradford)
so 11 points behind schedule.

Played 10 out of 8 of the top sides. (16 games)
Won 4 (Shrewsbury, Accrington, Oxford and Torquay) drawn 0 lost 6 (Crawley, Shrewsbury Cheltenham, Burton and Swindon x 2)
so 12 points ahead of schedule.

Overall 1 points ahead of schedule would result in a final tally of 91 points, I’ll settle for that.

Obviously if you do beat the top sides your taking points off your rivals, but if you can amass 90 odd points it doesn't matter.

 

[BrettieAngell]

I like alot! Unfortunately can't see Crawley budging so we may have to be happy with second or third. That will do though!

Be happy with 2nd or 3rd!?!?!

Anyway this is Southend we never do it the easy way, IF we go up can see it going to the last game or via the play-offs!

 

[superblue24]

Be happy with 2nd or 3rd!?!?!

Anyway this is Southend we never do it the easy way, IF we go up can see it going to the last game or via the play-offs!

We have no hope whatsoever if we go into the PO's. We've demonstrated on more than one occasion this year, sometimes spectacularly, that we are massive big-game bottlers and that our "direct" style wont work on better defences in the league....Top 3 or bust.

 

[BrettieAngell]

We have no hope whatsoever if we go into the PO's. We've demonstrated on more than one occasion this year, sometimes spectacularly, that we are massive big-game bottlers and that our "direct" style wont work on better defences in the league....Top 3 or bust.

Yeah probably true, some people seem to be fixated on winning the title when really we are in a big time battle now just to finish in the top 3!

 

[BLUEBLOOD]

Damned lies and statistics ... sides likes Gills, Torquay, Burton and Oxford have been in and out of the top 8 all season, so it doesn't matter if we lose to them when thjey are 8th, they then lose two games and drop to 10th so it DOES matter that we lost

:dizzy: :dizzy:

 

[Somerset Ex-TTB]

I have £500 riding on us wining the title. £650 of winning bets if we do, £150 of winning bets if we finish top 3, zero if we finish in the play-offs.