Play-offs & goals 2023/2024 Season

[Rattus Norvegicus]

Looking at the table for last season gives the following:-

Goals scored

Wrexham 116

Notts County 117

Chesterfield 81

Woking 71

Barnet 75

Boreham Wood 52

Bromley 68


That gives an average of 83. (Compared with 77 for the 2021/22 season).

However, excluding the two top clubs (who were top class last season) gives an average of 69.

To me, the numbers suggest once again that Southend needs to score at least 70 to 75 goals this season to be in the play-offs.

But ............... that does not take account of the 10 point deduction - so around 80 might be a better target - that makes 1.7 goals per game.

The good news is that the current squad (albeit after just four games) is managing 2.25 games per game so there is some hope.*



[* Please Note: There are plenty of other threads for posts relating to the current owner - please use them as appropriate. This thread is about the team & scoring enough goals to get into the play-offs.]

 

[Yorkshire Blue]

How the current squad could score 80 goals

Cardwell 18 - this assumes he slows significantly from his current pace of 35 goals. Just one goal every three games from here on out would give him 17.
Bridge 12 - one less than he scored last season and he’s already up and running as compared to last year where he didn’t get his first until late September
Wood 8 - will need to replace Callum Powell in the starting line-up. Scored this many last season for Tonbridge in 15 starts and 7 sub appearances. Came into his own second half of last season and we could do with something similar this year
Scott-Morriss 7 - would be 2 more than he got last season but he’s already ahead of where he was this time last year
Mooney 7 - this would be his average goal tally over the last 2 seasons
Powell 5 - probably the most optimistic target but he does already have one to his name
Coker 5 - already has 2 from limited playing time so would need just 3 from the remaining 42 games
Fonguck 4 - he managed 2 in 22 last season. If he plays twice as many games this seems feasible
Husin 4 - only 2 last season but had five the season before that
Ralph 2 - we’ll need our centre-halves to step up
Taylor 1 - as above
Kensdale 1 - managed this last season
Miley 2 - has hit this season goal tally at least twice before
Demetriou 2 - has 5 goals over the last 2 seasons even with his reduced role
Own goals 2

 

[Holy Joe]

How the current squad could score 80 goals

Cardwell 18 - this assumes he slows significantly from his current pace of 35 goals. Just one goal every three games from here on out would give him 17.
Bridge 12 - one less than he scored last season and he’s already up and running as compared to last year where he didn’t get his first until late September
Wood 8 - will need to replace Callum Powell in the starting line-up. Scored this many last season for Tonbridge in 15 starts and 7 sub appearances. Came into his own second half of last season and we could do with something similar this year
Scott-Morriss 7 - would be 2 more than he got last season but he’s already ahead of where he was this time last year
Mooney 7 - this would be his average goal tally over the last 2 seasons
Powell 5 - probably the most optimistic target but he does already have one to his name
Coker 5 - already has 2 from limited playing time so would need just 3 from the remaining 42 games
Fonguck 4 - he managed 2 in 22 last season. If he plays twice as many games this seems feasible
Husin 4 - only 2 last season but had five the season before that
Ralph 2 - we’ll need our centre-halves to step up
Taylor 1 - as above
Kensdale 1 - managed this last season
Miley 2 - has hit this season goal tally at least twice before
Demetriou 2 - has 5 goals over the last 2 seasons even with his reduced role
Own goals 2

Didn't Powell score more than 5 last season? Not sure how that's the most optimistic target

 

[Rattus Norvegicus]

Excellent analysis Yorkshire Blue.

It has cheered me up no end - last season we couldn't score for toffee at times and you couldn't see how the team could amass the goals (and points) required - although we did come rather close. Strangely it looks rather different right now .......... despite not having the attacking options of Sandat, Hyde, Murphy & Wreh for example!

On the other hand we (Southend United) were very good at defending at times last season - the last two games would suggest we have some improving to do in that area.

 

[JD]

Didn't Powell score more than 5 last season? Not sure how that's the most optimistic target

It’s realistic given he can’t hit a cows arse with banjo!

 

[Rattus Norvegicus]

After yesterday's 5 goal rapaciousness I thought it might be worthwhile looking to see where we are.

16 games played & 30 goals scored = 1.875 goals per game.

Over the course of 46 games that would give 86 goals .......... my initial analysis suggested 1.7 goals per game would give us a chance of being in the play-offs even with the 10 point deduction.

It's not rocket science - if we keep clean sheets & maintain our scoring rate then we will be in the top 7 come May. And that for me is nothing short of a marvel.

 

[Rattus Norvegicus]

On 22nd October last season we beat Scunthorpe 3-0 at home & then won 3-0 away at Maidenhead.

Can anyone see how many goals we had scored at that point? I think we had a small positive goal difference of 4 (and then 7) compared with the 13 we have at the moment.

My initial thoughts are that we had a tighter defence last season but scored fewer.

 

[Blue Yonder]

On 22nd October last season we beat Scunthorpe 3-0 at home & then won 3-0 away at Maidenhead.

Can anyone see how many goals we had scored at that point? I think we had a small positive goal difference of 4 (and then 7) compared with the 13 we have at the moment.

My initial thoughts are that we had a tighter defence last season but scored fewer.

Maidstone 3-0 not Maidenhead. You had me confused for a bit.

 

[Rattus Norvegicus]

I always get those 2 muddled up ..........

 

[leeblue]

I said after the Woking game we can make the play offs comfortably the only thing stopping that will be our threadbare squad. Shame about the takeover being delayed as my confidence was based on the embargo being lifted sooner than the new date of takeover.
Ralph coming back ASAP is vital.

 

[Yorkshire Blue]

How the current squad could score 80 goals

Cardwell 18 - this assumes he slows significantly from his current pace of 35 goals. Just one goal every three games from here on out would give him 17. Now on 17 with 3 games remaining
Bridge 12 - one less than he scored last season and he’s already up and running as compared to last year where he didn’t get his first until late September Notched his 8th in all competitions Easter Monday
Wood 8 - will need to replace Callum Powell in the starting line-up. Scored this many last season for Tonbridge in 15 starts and 7 sub appearances. Came into his own second half of last season and we could do with something similar this year On 3 goals. Lost minutes to the signings of Sandat (2), Waldron (2) and Dackers (1)
Scott-Morriss 7 - would be 2 more than he got last season but he’s already ahead of where he was this time last year Now on 7
Mooney 7 - this would be his average goal tally over the last 2 seasons Left in Nov having scored just 1
Powell 5 - probably the most optimistic target but he does already have one to his name Just 2. Kanu replaced him for a month and scored 4 in one game.
Coker 5 - already has 2 from limited playing time so would need just 3 from the remaining 42 games Surpassed this with 6
Fonguck 4 - he managed 2 in 22 last season. If he plays twice as many games this seems feasible Is currently on 3. Morton started over him and scored Easter Monday though.
Husin 4 - only 2 last season but had five the season before that Is currently on 3
Ralph 2 - we’ll need our centre-halves to step up Has 2 goals
Taylor 1 - as above Yet to score. Crowther filling in for him did however score.
Kensdale 1 - managed this last season Has 1 goal
Miley 2 - has hit this season goal tally at least twice before Yet to score.
Demetriou 2 - has 5 goals over the last 2 seasons even with his reduced role - Yet to score. Kabongolo however signed as a defender/turned utility player and managed 1 goal
Own goals 2 Just one despite the Ebbsfleet defender’s attempt on Good Friday

Not that far off.

 

[Rattus Norvegicus]

We have scored 65 goals in 43 games - that is 1.51 goals per game.

My original figures suggested we needed to score around 70 goals to get into the play-offs (1.52 goals per game) so that is about right for a normal season I would suggest.

Or we would need 80 goals to take into account the point deduction.

This could be considered to be a little high given the number of 0-0 draws there have been. Another 5 goals here could have yielded another 10 points and the league table would show us in the hunt.

It's all theoretical of course.