Question Play offs?

[Spaceman Spiff]

Should we reach the playoffs, we will be the team to beat, I don’t think anyone would want to play us.
For those who say it’s a season to early, look at the league 2 table, currently Wrexham 2nd and Notts County 6th, both with basically the same squads that we matched last season.....believe!

We didn’t match Notts County away, but otherwise I agree

 

[rigsby]

With one more signing this week we will have the squad that everyone will expect to challenge for 1st place next season.......So the minimum expected will be 3rd place form for the rest of this season.

Who cares who's 7 points ahead, if we win games we get in the play-offs. Halifax and Eastleigh away were on my 'tricky' list when I was speaking to someone a few weeks ago. Back then I said looks like at least 14 wins........Now its just 12 and the fixtures have become easier.

 

[fredheim_holm]

Just done a crude projection based on season form. As expected, the -10 costs us a play-off place in this scenario. Obviously teams will alter their season form for better or worse over the next 20 games or so, but this gives a rough steer on how things are going.

If form stayed as it is now (it wont) we would need around 1.93 PPG or 37 points from the 57 remaining to sneak into 7th spot, taking the minus 10 into the equation. That is equivalent form to Barnet (3rd - 1.96 PPG).

The target to aim for (7th spot) is around 71/72 points (Essentially 81/82 points for us because of the -10) which would likely of seen us finish 4th on a level playing field. Or 11/12 wins and a few draws from the remaining 19 games.

A tough ask of course, it's basically top 3 form required for the rest of the season. But not out of the question with this bunch.

1​	Chesterfield	115​
2​	Bromley	92​
3​	Barnet	90​
4​	Solihull Moors	78​
5​	Altrincham	76​
6​	Oldham Athletic	72​
7​	Gateshead	71​
8​	Aldershot Town	71​
9​	FC Halifax Town	68​
10​	Rochdale	67​
11​	Southend United (-10)	65​
12​	Eastleigh	63​
13​	Wealdstone	61​
14​	Maidenhead United	55​
15​	Boreham Wood	55​
16​	Dagenham & Redbridge	51​
17​	York City	51​
18​	Hartlepool United	51​
19​	Dorking Wanderers	50​
20​	Woking	46​
21​	Ebbsfleet United	44​
22​	AFC Fylde	43​
23​	Oxford City	39​
24​	Kidderminster Harriers	33​

Interesting analysis, just the sort of thing I was wondering, thanks @Smiffy.

The key point seems to be roughly top 3 form required here on out. We're currently 5th in the table (ignoring deductions) so it's a bit of a jump up to get there, but not crazy. Let's see if the new squad depth and lack of cloud hanging over our heads can be the boost we need.

 

[Grayson]

In 2 weeks' time, assuming no postponements, we will have played 4 of the current top 5 twice already with 15 still to play.

Of that 15, we would be playing against 10 of the current bottom 12. We really should fancy it.

 

[Stan33]

With one more signing this week we will have the squad that everyone will expect to challenge for 1st place next season.......So the minimum expected will be 3rd place form for the rest of this season.

Who cares who's 7 points ahead, if we win games we get in the play-offs. Halifax and Eastleigh away were on my 'tricky' list when I was speaking to someone a few weeks ago. Back then I said looks like at least 14 wins........Now its just 12 and the fixtures have become easier.

Slow down riggers nothing is ‘easy ‘in footers

 

[stewart]

Lets just cool down a little, i will wait until after the next 4 games to make a prediction, we have 2 against Wealdstone , 1 against Altrincham and 1 against Chesterfield who are walking this division , Altrinham are also doing well while Wealdstone sit above us also ,Get 7 or more points from these four games and just maybe a spot in te playoffs is possible.

 

[Shrimpergonzo]

Lets just cool down a little, i will wait until after the next 4 games to make a prediction, we have 2 against Wealdstone , 1 against Altrincham and 1 against Chesterfield who are walking this division , Altrinham are also doing well while Wealdstone sit above us also ,Get 7 or more points from these four games and just maybe a spot in te playoffs is possible.

Wealdstone are one place below us actually (but with games in hand). I agree though - we'll have a much better idea after these 4 games.

 

[Lincoln Shrimp]

The key to overhauling the points deficit is to beat the teams above us. We still have Altrincham Gateshead, Aldershot, Oldham, Solihull and Rochdale left to play.....in that order. 4 of these 6 matches being at home.

 

[Billy Bests boot laces]

The fact Oldham are in the playoffs is enough to give us all hope.

Until Oct they were struggling somewhat?. Must admit i haven't been taking any notice of their results, but guess they must have been/ are on a decent run at present?.

 

[Holy Joe]

Until Oct they were struggling somewhat?. Must admit i haven't been taking any notice of their results, but guess they must have been/ are on a decent run at present?.

I think their fortunes changed after replacing the manager

 

[Southstand blue]

What’s your farm?

Crops and horses

 

[Blues4LifeDan]

Until Oct they were struggling somewhat?. Must admit i haven't been taking any notice of their results, but guess they must have been/ are on a decent run at present?.

Sometimes adjusting to league takes time, as we well know. They signed some very good players (Norwood, Hobson to name a few) and they always had the capability and expectations to get in the playoffs. They are exactly where they should be to be fair.

Out of all the games and possibilities we could face if we miraculously made the playoffs, Oldham away isn't one I'd relish.

 

[dusterman]

Crops and horses

Ah right, whereabouts is it as I’m up that way? The wife goes to Fordham for horse riding.

 

[Tommy2holes]

Sometimes adjusting to league takes time, as we well know. They signed some very good players (Norwood, Hobson to name a few) and they always had the capability and expectations to get in the playoffs. They are exactly where they should be to be fair.

Out of all the games and possibilities we could face if we miraculously made the playoffs, Oldham away isn't one I'd relish.

True but I doubt Oldham would want to face us either.

Even at their place. In a play off game we would take 1500+ , maybe even 2k+

I'd fancy us against any team in this division. Bromley are the team I'd hate to play. They just have a knack of playing their anti football and winning games.

My choice would be Barnet. We owe them massively after the Christmas double defeat when we had a bare bones squad.

Signing Waldron is the missing piece. Pace, power and a finisher of different goals.

I'm not quite of the mind set that the play offs are a certainty, but this squad is more than capable of overhauling a 7 point gap in the coming months.

Each game is vital.

 

[CC51DAS]

Solimoors, although currently 12 points clear of us in fourth, have quite a few tough fixtures left including Barnet and Bromley - and us. Could be a tough run in for a small club punching above their weight (again).

We beat them convincingly at home and have a far superior goal difference. If we can repeat this result at theirs we would need to win three more games than them and match their other results to finish above them. Too much to expect ?

 

[WhiteNoise]

Based on current form it's not impossible. Hopefully the arrival of the recent additions to the squad will help our form during the run-in. I'll try and keep this updated on a weekly basis. We can get betting odds of about 9/2 (18%) to finish in the top 7.

 

[Holy Joe]

True but I doubt Oldham would want to face us either.

Even at their place. In a play off game we would take 1500+ , maybe even 2k+

Would they give us that many tickets? Be to their advantage to give us the min amount?

 

[South Bank Hank]

Crops and horses

Ah the legendary 2020-2021 Southend United squad.

 

[The Original Tribal Chief]

We won't drop another point and will get into the top 3.

 

[Harry Bullocks]

True but I doubt Oldham would want to face us either.

Even at their place. In a play off game we would take 1500+ , maybe even 2k+

I'd fancy us against any team in this division. Bromley are the team I'd hate to play. They just have a knack of playing their anti football and winning games.

My choice would be Barnet. We owe them massively after the Christmas double defeat when we had a bare bones squad.

Signing Waldron is the missing piece. Pace, power and a finisher of different goals.

I'm not quite of the mind set that the play offs are a certainty, but this squad is more than capable of overhauling a 7 point gap in the coming months.

Each game is vital.

Apparently their away end holds over 3,000