Polling - big Lab lead, Lib misery and the rise of UKIP -

[applelover]

LATEST VOTING INTENTION
Con Lab Lib
14 Dec 28 39 9 Lab +11
14 Dec 33 45 9 Lab +12
13 Dec 33 43 9 Lab +10
12 Dec 31 44 12 Lab +13
11 Dec 31 43 10 Lab +12
10 Dec 33 42 10 Lab +9
10 Dec 35 44 9 Lab +9
10 Dec 26 41 8 Lab +15
7 Dec 33 42 10 Lab +9
6 Dec 32 42 10 Lab +10
5 Dec 32 44 9 Lab +12
4 Dec 30 44 11 Lab +14
3 Dec 31 43 11 Lab +12
3 Dec 28 40 10 Lab +12
1 Dec 31 44 10 Lab +13
29 Nov 29 38 9 Lab +9
29 Nov 32 42 10 Lab +10
28 Nov 32 44 11 Lab +12
27 Nov 31 43 9 Lab +12
26 Nov 34 43 9 Lab +9
25 Nov 31 41 8 Lab +10
25 Nov 35 42 10 Lab +7
23 Nov 33 44 9 Lab +11
22 Nov 31 43 10 Lab +12
21 Nov 33 41 9 Lab +8

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

Polls are just polls and obviously there is a long way to go until the election. However these polls are looking pretty good for Labour. As I have stated previously I can't see the Conservatives winning the next election without a significant improvement in the economy or a catastrophe for Labour.

The recent 10% polling for UKIP is a massive head ache for Cameron. Farage is a very engaging politician. Most, myself included, believe that he is spot on in his analysis on the EU. UKIP presents a genuine choice for disaffected traditional Tory voters. However eurosceptic Labour voters have no viable centre-left eurosceptic alternative.

 

[superblue24]

If I thought they'd get in, I would vote UKIP to be honest.

This country is one more Labour reign away from ruin and Miliband is the man to be stood in number 10 as the country comes crashing down around his ears whilst he ponders and minces about like Alan Partridge....All the Barnablues of the world will finally open their eyes....but it will be too late....

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

If I thought they'd get in, I would vote UKIP to be honest.

This is the credibility problem that UKIP will continue to have until they can get an MP elected at either a by-election or GE.
I'm afraid polling well at European elections(as they will presumably again in 2014)won't be enough.
Certainly Farage is a capable politician and UKIP's recent attempts to become more than a one issue party(eg over immigration and gay marriage)will help them to peel off votes from former Tories.

 

[Neil_F]

Polling for the two major parties added together has been consistent. The protest polling that used to go to the Lib Dems is now split elsewhere with the majority being picked up by UKIP. However, as the last general election showed, protest polling rarely translates into votes cast at the ballot box.

I think those advising Cameron to do something about UKIP are confusing noise for signal. The three main parties are now so discredited that I don't think there is anything they could do that would win back disaffected voters because they simply will not believe them. Most of those people now don't vote and those that do vote for minor parties affect the outcome in perhaps 10 seats.

The situation is ripe for a new party I think. Something with a popular mandate that was composed of moderate, non-politicos would have a real chance of breaking through given enough financial backing. No such movement exists though and I don't see it happeneing any time soon.

 

[shrimpled]

No great surprises there, but totally irrelevant the result of the next GE.

UKIP will poll well but won't come close to winning a seat.

Lib Dem vote isn't far short of where it has been for years, bar a burst in 2010, and generally in the areas where they have MP's & lead council's their support is more than holding up. In Tory/ Lib Dem marginals their vote share has actually increased. Also, in some Lib Dem/ Labour margianals soft Tories will continue to lend their support and actually across the country these "soft Tories" are beginning to look at the LD's more seriously.

As previously stated the Labour lead is not as high as it they would expect it to be and no opposition has actually won the next GE with poll leads as low as they currently have. Their biggest issue is with their leader.

We're 2 and a bit years away and as the time draws closer and people begin to take a slight interest in what is going on expect the polls for Tories to increase, Labour to decrease, Libs to remain fiarly static, and UKIP to decrease.

My prediction, another coalition.

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

This is the credibility problem that UKIP will continue to have until they can get an MP elected at either a by-election or GE.
I'm afraid polling well at European elections(as they will presumably again in 2014)won't be enough.
Certainly Farage is a capable politician and UKIP's recent attempts to become more than a one issue party(eg over immigration and gay marriage)will help them to peel off votes from former Tories.

UKIP seem to be padding out their policies but every time Farage is on Question Time he answers every single question with 'because of the powers of the EU....' no matter how revelevant or not it is and the other members of the panel tend to just ignore him. They still just seem like a one issue pressure group.

 

[Dick Bate's Protege]

Polling for the two major parties added together has been consistent. The protest polling that used to go to the Lib Dems is now split elsewhere with the majority being picked up by UKIP. However, as the last general election showed, protest polling rarely translates into votes cast at the ballot box.

I think those advising Cameron to do something about UKIP are confusing noise for signal. The three main parties are now so discredited that I don't think there is anything they could do that would win back disaffected voters because they simply will not believe them. Most of those people now don't vote and those that do vote for minor parties affect the outcome in perhaps 10 seats.

The situation is ripe for a new party I think. Something with a popular mandate that was composed of moderate, non-politicos would have a real chance of breaking through given enough financial backing. No such movement exists though and I don't see it happeneing any time soon.

Peter Hitchens has been saying the same thing recently; a party with traditional Conservatives values. Mind you he hates everything and everyone not in tune with Victorian Britain.

 

[C C Csiders]

Peter Hitchens has been saying the same thing recently; a party with traditional Conservatives values. Mind you he hates everything and everyone not in tune with Victorian Britain.

And is proven to be Parker from The Thunderbirds.

 

[Neil_F]

Peter Hitchens has been saying the same thing recently; a party with traditional Conservatives values. Mind you he hates everything and everyone not in tune with Victorian Britain.

Oh no... do I really agree with Peter Hitchens? I need to change my position.

I don't really know what traditional Conservative values means. I suspect that the people saying it actual mean, "a party that represents my own views..."

 

[Massimo Giovanni]

Seeing as SE Essex is a Tory heart land and the MPs we have at present are not of the calibre of Teddy Taylor & they have expenses/integrity issues BUT still get an overwhelming vote any poll is a tad irrelevant for those that live here as you could dress a monkey with a blue rosette and 20,000 would vote it in if it was the tory candidate. Fools & sheep abound the Essex:'( coast.