The EU Referendum

[Napster]

Thought you were an "in"? What have you seen to change you mind?

Just the governance issue. But I'm still thinking about it. The margins on this are so close I need to be 100%

 

[maninasuitcase]

Although I know very little about politics, the idea of Britain having ultimately absolute control on rules, regulations, legislation, etc does appeal to me.

Of course because no country has ever left the EU there isn't any real way to judge what the long term effects would be.

But like I said, I know sod all about politics and there may be very valid reasons unknown to me why leaving would be a bad thing.

Three countries have left the EU. Two were French dependencies, plus Greenland who were part of Denmark when they joined. From wiki:

[h=3]Greenland[edit][/h]Greenland chose to leave the EU predecessor without also seceding from a member state. It initially voted against joining the EEC when Denmark joined in 1973, but because Denmark as a whole voted to join, Greenland, as a part of Denmark, joined too. When home rule for Greenland began in 1979, it held a new referendum and voted to leave the EEC. After wrangling over fishing rights, the territory left the EEC in 1985,[SUP][4][/SUP] but remains subject to the EU treaties through association of Overseas Countries and Territories with the EU. This was permitted by the Greenland Treaty, a special treaty signed in 1984 to allow its withdrawal.[SUP][5][/SUP]

 

[londonblue]

Just the governance issue. But I'm still thinking about it. The margins on this are so close I need to be 100%

100% in what way? (I assume you mean in your own mind.) I think the most interesting point I have read is that there is no precedence for this, so it is impossible to say what will or won't happen.

My observations so far are:

1. When a "stay" advocate predicts a negative affect leaving would have they are accused of scaremongering.
2. When a leave advocate predicts a positive affect leaving would have they are accused of being naive.

For me, as I've said before this really comes down to how risk averse you are. Leaving is a risk, the question is are you prepared to take that risk or not? I would say "leavers" are less risk averse than "stayers".

I'm less risk averse, and am a "stayer". The thing that would make me more likely to vote leave is when a "leave" advocate accepts that there are going to be some disadvantages in leaving. To me their argument would be more believable if they said something on the lines of "It's a risk, and some things will be more difficult, there may even be some losers, but overall those are sacrifices worth making because the benefits are..." But they don't, they say everything will be rosy, and that (logic would dictate) simply can't be true.

 

[Napster]

100% in what way? (I assume you mean in your own mind.)

Yes in my own mind.

Philosophically, every decision is a risk, every path taken whether it is the same path, or one less travelled, there are risks to be encountered. If we stayed, what impact will this decision have on the rest of the EU? Will other countries hold referenda? Will other countries question their own culture/identity/governance?

If we left, of course the risks are unknown. There are known unknowns and unknown unknowns. Anyone denying this fact is churlish to say the least. How can these risks be minimised/mitigated/managed? That's for another thread.

 

[londonblue]

Yes in my own mind.

Philosophically, every decision is a risk, every path taken whether it is the same path, or one less travelled, there are risks to be encountered. If we stayed, what impact will this decision have on the rest of the EU? Will other countries hold referenda? Will other countries question their own culture/identity/governance?

If we left, of course the risks are unknown. There are known unknowns and unknown unknowns. Anyone denying this fact is churlish to say the least. How can these risks be minimised/mitigated/managed? That's for another thread.

Agreed. But for me, one issue is that the leave campaign can't see any downside, and that simply can't be the case. They would sound more realistic if they acknowledged that.

 

[Sandbach Shrimper]

I would expect this to be in favour of a leave, mainly because Southend is one of the most Eurosceptic regions in the UK. Assuming most people on here (that vote in this poll) live in Southend, and most of those people follow the rest of the Southend population, this should show a leave bias.

Pubey did a poll earlier in the year which was pretty evenly split. I noticed that Stan Collymore did one on Twitter last night too which was 52% stay. Over 20,000 people voted in it, so probably more representative than most of these YouGov polls you read about.

 

[mfurok]

We've been through the arguments before on a f2f basis.

I honestly don't think anything I, (or anyone else), could say would convince you to vote remain, so I'm not going to waste my time trying.

Suffice it to say, though we both voted No in 1975 (for very different reasons), I've changed my mind and political thinking since then, as a result of the direct personal experience of living in France and Spain.

I don't think you have.

I just hope that you and your fellow leave voters will put up, (and shut up), when the vote goes against you on June 23rd.

Good afternoon squire.

Like the Scottish Nationalists have?

Humour me- it's the weekend and you know I'm thick.

Please explain in a few brief bullet points why being a NO means right wing and being a YES means left wing.

I have never had a proper explanation so just give it to me both barrels please.

 

[mfurok]

Agreed. But for me, one issue is that the leave campaign can't see any downside, and that simply can't be the case. They would sound more realistic if they acknowledged that.

Simple - here are a few risks but they are all worth it.

• Both leaving and staying are a risk because we cannot predict the future.
• Leaving is a risk to financial services in London because the Yanks don't like the Europeans but have to access them and like to do it via London - that may change to (say) Frankfurt - but it may not.
• The currency/interest rate traders are likely to shift rates to make themselves some money - not for solid economic reasons but they will pretend that it is because of uncertainty (see above) - that will cause some short term chaos - no change there then.

This all suggests to me that a lot of the stayers are in that camp because they are being frightened by the arch capitalists in our society who also raise WW3 (not plagues of locusts yet) as a likely outcome.

I am therefore genuinely baffled why the left appear to generally want in but no-one appears to be able to explain it.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

Good afternoon squire.

Like the Scottish Nationalists have?

Humour me- it's the weekend and you know I'm thick.

Please explain in a few brief bullet points why being a NO means right wing and being a YES means left wing.

I have never had a proper explanation so just give it to me both barrels please.

Personally, I happen to think the SNP are a more effective oppostion to the Tories than the PLP, atm.You may have noticed that they're on the remain side too.

Dunno, if you saw Frank Field on the Daily Politics earlier? He's on the leave side of the argument, as it happens.What I agree with him about,however,is that for most people voting on 23rd June it'll be "a gut feeling" that decides their vote.

Of course there are principled arguments on both sides.There are also specious one,especially concerning immigration.

My gut feeling, FWIW, is that you either believe in the European ideal or you don't.

I've spent most of my professional life working in mainland Europe,as you know.I also happen to believe in the free movement of people in the EU.

There are obviously problems with the way the EU works but I happen to believe it's an institution that can be democratized if the 28 member states are willing to do so.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36341206

The latest scare story by the leave side.

 

[callan]

Unless you spoil your ballot paper, not going to help on the 23rd June now is it.

Still 5 weeks to go for those of us who are undecided to make our minds up.

 

[londonblue]

Simple - here are a few risks but they are all worth it.

• Both leaving and staying are a risk because we cannot predict the future.
• Leaving is a risk to financial services in London because the Yanks don't like the Europeans but have to access them and like to do it via London - that may change to (say) Frankfurt - but it may not.
• The currency/interest rate traders are likely to shift rates to make themselves some money - not for solid economic reasons but they will pretend that it is because of uncertainty (see above) - that will cause some short term chaos - no change there then.

This all suggests to me that a lot of the stayers are in that camp because they are being frightened by the arch capitalists in our society who also raise WW3 (not plagues of locusts yet) as a likely outcome.

I am therefore genuinely baffled why the left appear to generally want in but no-one appears to be able to explain it.

They don't sound like risks, they sound like conspiracy theories.

 

[rigsby]

Personally, I happen to think the SNP are a more effective oppostion to the Tories than the PLP, atm.You may have noticed that they're on the remain side too.

Dunno, if you saw Frank Field on the Daily Politics earlier? He's on the leave side of the argument, as it happens.What I agree with him about,however,is that for most people voting on 23rd June it'll be "a gut feeling" that decides their vote.

Of course there are principled arguments on both sides.There are also specious one,especially concerning immigration.

My gut feeling, FWIW, is that you either believe in the European ideal or you don't.

I've spent most of my professional life working in mainland Europe,as you know.I also happen to believe in the free movement of people in the EU.

There are obviously problems with the way the EU works but I happen to believe it's an institution that can be democratised if the 28 member states are willing to do so.

Even people who are voting to remain don't believe that. Lots will vote to stay in because they are fearful of change or what they see as risk. However they are far more aware now of how bad the EU is being run so at least Politicians are promising, falsely of course, to change things.

Boris and co are of course hopping we stay in, just. That way he will be fighting an easy win in the next GE because Labour will have to defend the EU, when they have been against it for years. Jeremy has really missed a trick by deserting his own principles.

 

[rigsby]

I would expect this to be in favour of a leave, mainly because Southend is one of the most Eurosceptic regions in the UK. Assuming most people on here (that vote in this poll) live in Southend, and most of those people follow the rest of the Southend population, this should show a leave bias.

We can't help being much smarter than the rest of the UK.

 

[Gremlin]

I see the luvvies are in favour of remain.:thumbsup:

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36338220

It only needs Russell Brand to join in for Leave to have it in the bag.

 

[Crabby Shrimper]

Let's hope for a warm sunny day - the weather shouldn't be a bar to people turning out, but often is. Whatever the outcome, I sincerely hope there is a huge turnout for this very important decision.

(Plus I've got tickets to a cricket match that evening!)

I'd also suggest that the weather could have a huge impact on the vote. if it's a low turnout due to the weather, I'd imagine the ones to stay at home would be those who don't have strong views one way or the other, and I'd say those people would be more likely to vote stay. I've no evidence to back this up, just a feeling that the "leave" camp have stronger views on the matter than a large percentage of the "remain" group.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

Even people who are voting to remain don't believe that. Lots will vote to stay in because they are fearful of change or what they see as risk. However they are far more aware now of how bad the EU is being run so at least Politicians are promising, falsely of course, to change things.

Boris and co are of course hopping we stay in, just. That way he will be fighting an easy win in the next GE because Labour will have to defend the EU, when they have been against it for years. Jeremy has really missed a trick by deserting his own principles.

Dunno if you saw Paul Mason on QT last night? Despite openly advocating for leave in his journalism (from an extreme-left perspective) he seemed to suggest that he'd probably abstain in June.

The PLP has been pro-EU for some time now.As I've suggested previously, if JC's going to pick a fight with the PLP, I think it'll be over unilateral nuclear disarmament, (which he has always been passionate about,throughout his career) and not the EU,which he is at best luke warm about.

 

[Bielzibubz]

Personally, I happen to think the SNP are a more effective oppostion to the Tories than the PLP, atm.You may have noticed that they're on the remain side too.

Dunno, if you saw Frank Field on the Daily Politics earlier? He's on the leave side of the argument, as it happens.What I agree with him about,however,is that for most people voting on 23rd June it'll be "a gut feeling" that decides their vote.

Of course there are principled arguments on both sides.There are also specious one,especially concerning immigration.

My gut feeling, FWIW, is that you either believe in the European ideal or you don't.

I've spent most of my professional life working in mainland Europe,as you know.I also happen to believe in the free movement of people in the EU.

There are obviously problems with the way the EU works but I happen to believe it's an institution that can be democratised if the 28 member states are willing to do so.

But this is the bit I cannot get my head around anyone actually believing that it could be (even when spelled right) The EU is now, always has been and always will be inherently undemocratic and incapable of meaningful change. It's corrupt to the core as well which is why, as I've said before, the accounts haven't been signed off in over two decades. If it was a company the fraud office would have been all over it many years ago and it's head/heads would have been barred from holding any kind off directorship for life with some of the probably locked up.

If I have to pay a little more in tax because of an Brexit, if the cost of living and the cost of certain goods goes up slightly because of an Brexit and if times do become a little tough in the post Brexit five years then these are small prices to be paid to retain our national sovereignty, to gain back our ability to set and repeal our own laws, to get rid of those that govern over us and set those laws if required. I don't want to be a European. I am first and foremost British and proud and always will be. (Just like to add I'm not racist or a member of any right wing group before some smart arse accuses me of it) If you want to abdicate your heritage, national identity, your ability to choose who and how your governed then by all means vote remain on the 23rd but as the old saying goes 'be careful what you wish for'

 

[Bielzibubz]

Dunno if you saw Paul Mason on QT last night? Despite openly advocating for leave in his journalism (from an extreme-left perspective) he seemed to suggest that he'd probably abstain in June.

The PLP has been pro-EU for some time now.As I've suggested previously, if JC's going to pick a fight with the PLP, I think it'll be over unilateral nuclear disarmament, (which he has always been passionate about,throughout his career) and not the EU,which he is at best luke warm about.

And there my friends you have it in a nutshell. 'Seemed to suggest he's probably'..........in other words 'I didn't understand a word of what he was saying but I can make it fit my left wing 'Remain' agenda anyway' :hilarious:

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

But this is the bit I cannot get my head around anyone actually believing that it could be (even when spelled right) The EU is now, always has been and always will be inherently undemocratic and incapable of meaningful change. It's corrupt to the core as well which is why, as I've said before, the accounts haven't been signed off in over two decades. If it was a company the fraud office would have been all over it many years ago and it's head/heads would have been barred from holding any kind off directorship for life with some of the probably locked up.

If I have to pay a little more in tax because of an Brexit, if the cost of living and the cost of certain goods goes up slightly because of an Brexit and if times do become a little tough in the post Brexit five years then these are small prices to be paid to retain our national sovereignty, to gain back our ability to set and repeal our own laws, to get rid of those that govern over us and set those laws if required. I don't want to be a European. I am first and foremost British and proud and always will be. (Just like to add I'm not racist or a member of any right wing group before some smart arse accuses me of it) If you want to abdicate your heritage, national identity, your ability to choose who and how your governed then by all means vote remain on the 23rd but as the old saying goes 'be careful what you wish for'

I'm British and will remain so until I die,however, I'm also proud to be European.

Frankly, I don't subsribe to your view of what Britishness consists of and nor do millions of others,IMO.