2017 Ashes

[Ricky Otto]

I'm afraid they haven't, a total this large has never been chased down batting last at Adelaide.

Within those narrow parameters, no they haven't. But I was not putting those parameters on my post, so I stand by my original post and I will add another cliché to go with your quote "there's a 1st time for everything" :smile:

 

[Shrimpers are Magic]

Records are there to be broken!

Latest odds suggest that we'd win one time out of four in this situation.

Australia 2/7 (77%)
Draw 100/1 (less than 1%)
England 11/4 (26%)

Saw something funny on one of the BBC cricket forums yesterday - someone mentioned that England were as good as 25/1 with some bookies (this was after we had OZ at 50 odd for 4)
He went on to say, for those who don't understand betting this basically means if you put £10 on England to win you lose £10 - proper wag!

 

[Yorkshire Blue]

Great stat from (I think) Jonathan Liew this morning. England have been set a target of 350+ 15 times in the last decade. Never got to within 100 runs of it.

Means England are due....

Andy Zaltzman also had a good stat about there only ever having been one successful 4th innings chase over 250 at Adelaide (Eng, in Jan 1902). But just as important is the context and there have only been two wins by teams defending a target of under 320 (Eng in 1994-95, WI in 1992-93). Most of these 4th innings target stats are irrelevant and from a different era.

It use to be hard to chase 300+ in the 4th innings because teams rarely got the opportunity because scoring rates were so much slower, pitches deteriorated and so on but in the modern era this is chaseable.

We'd back England to chase 300 in 50 overs at Adelaide in an ODI. Why not in a test match when we've got more time? It's now down to 178 needed with 6 wickets remaining and more than 40 overs remaining. The ball has lost it's shine and if we go at the same runrate we did in the first innings we'll knock them off before the lights come on and batting becomes difficult.

  Spoiler:  

It's the hope that kills

 

[rigsby]

Means England are due....

Andy Zaltzman also had a good stat about there only ever having been one successful 4th innings chase over 250 at Adelaide (Eng, in Jan 1902). But just as important is the context and there have only been two wins by teams defending a target of under 320 (Eng in 1994-95, WI in 1992-93). Most of these 4th innings target stats are irrelevant and from a different era.

It use to be hard to chase 300+ in the 4th innings because teams rarely got the opportunity because scoring rates were so much slower, pitches deteriorated and so on but in the modern era this is chaseable.

We'd back England to chase 300 in 50 overs at Adelaide in an ODI. Why not in a test match when we've got more time? It's now down to 178 needed with 6 wickets remaining and more than 40 overs remaining. The ball has lost it's shine and if we go at the same runrate we did in the first innings we'll knock them off before the lights come on and batting becomes difficult.

  Spoiler:  

It's the hope that kills

I believe the new ball is available in 18 overs . If we lose a quick couple then it will be almost impossible but lets all keep our fingers crossed.

 

[Yorkshire Blue]

I believe the new ball is available in 18 overs . If we lose a quick couple then it will be almost impossible but lets all keep our fingers crossed.

Yes, not losing early wickets will be key. We want set batsmen facing the new ball.

I liked the tactic of Woakes as a quasi-nightwatchman. It means another right-hander for this morning at a stage of the game where Australia really want to be bowling Lyon, who has been feasting on left-handers this series. Woakes' record with the bat at both fc and test level isn't far off Stoneman, Vince, Malan, Ali etc. Can he now turn a good game into a great game?

 

[rigsby]

Yes, not losing early wickets will be key. We want set batsmen facing the new ball.

I liked the tactic of Woakes as a quasi-nightwatchman. It means another right-hander for this morning at a stage of the game where Australia really want to be bowling Lyon, who has been feasting on left-handers this series. Woakes' record with the bat at both fc and test level isn't far off Stoneman, Vince, Malan, Ali etc. Can he now turn a good game into a great game?

No point in having Jimmy prod around in the morning using up vital overs so good idea.

 

[MK Shrimper]

So the usual England collapse. :facepalm:

 

[Southminster Shrimper]

We are such a poor team. Two of the poorest ashes teams that I can remember. Same old.

 

[Blueronron]

Really shocked by the way we fell away, the turning point for me losing Malan just ten minutes before close yesterday

Not saying he would have stayed and batted us to victory, but Aussie tails were up, 176-3 looked better than 177-4 from an English point of view

Missing Finn is a massive blow to us, and Stokes can be a match changer on his day think Aussie may have been hit around the field a bit more, but then who knows he may have fallen into their fielding traps with short balls, Hales not sure he has the mental capacity for 5 day but again, could he have stayed longer at the crease ....

Now the question is will Cook continue his England duties after the Ashes, doesnot look confident or maybe its the opening partner that doesnot give him the confidence, we are struggling to find the right opening combo.
Not sure what has happened to Broad, once upon a time a player you could rely on to grab a 30 run bat, but now I would prefer Jimmy A to come in and block a way

Im very much sitting on the fence with certain players, but honestly believe Finn would have given us a great chance

 

[The Big Dady]

Disappointing end to the game after a good fight back on the 4th day, and what is more worrying is that Oz bowled out our tail with the old ball.

 

[londonblue]

Are we not in danger of turning into the new India? Very good at home, abysmal away.

 

[RobM]

Are we not in danger of turning into the new India? Very good at home, abysmal away.

A bit like Southend Uited!!

 

[MK Shrimper]

Are we not in danger of turning into the new India? Very good at home, abysmal away.

There's a wealth of racist jokes waiting to be told by Britain First members/US Presidents in that post. :stunned:

 

[Shrimpers are Magic]

Really shocked by the way we fell away, the turning point for me losing Malan just ten minutes before close yesterday

Not saying he would have stayed and batted us to victory, but Aussie tails were up, 176-3 looked better than 177-4 from an English point of view

Missing Finn is a massive blow to us, and Stokes can be a match changer on his day think Aussie may have been hit around the field a bit more, but then who knows he may have fallen into their fielding traps with short balls, Hales not sure he has the mental capacity for 5 day but again, could he have stayed longer at the crease ....

Now the question is will Cook continue his England duties after the Ashes, doesnot look confident or maybe its the opening partner that doesnot give him the confidence, we are struggling to find the right opening combo.
Not sure what has happened to Broad, once upon a time a player you could rely on to grab a 30 run bat, but now I would prefer Jimmy A to come in and block a way

Im very much sitting on the fence with certain players, but honestly believe Finn would have given us a great chance

Tend to agree with you on Finn, he was bowling fast and taking plenty of wickets at the end of the summer and his extra height and bounce would have troubled Australia. Overton was picked to tour for the same reason (height and bounce not pace) and he is one the few to come out of this test with any credit.
Didn't give us a snowballs to be honest but did expect more of rear guard than we got.
All goes back to the toss for me, big mistake by Root and series now gone.

 

[BrettieAngell]

Are we not in danger of turning into the new India? Very good at home, abysmal away.

Seems to be a general trend in test cricket tbh.

 

[Perth Bambi]

Think people are forgetting that after losing the last away tour 5-0 we then went and won the next home Ashes series. Losing an away tour does not make us an awful team. The vast majority of teams lose away as cricket is heavily condition dependent.
English conditions do not suit lightening quick fast bouncy bowlers (as much as swing fast medium bowlers) Therefore the quicker bowlers aren't going to look as impressive in the county game. That is fine on a home series but on an away series where those conditions suit we either book the bowlers who have proved it in the county game or take a chance (which we have done previously with Tremlett/Plunkett and we did this time with Finn to some extent, we were just unlucky that he was injured.
With tailenders, it is always going to be much easier facing fast medium 120km/h balls (like starc, lyon, cummings have to) especially when it isn't moving much than a 145km/h pace. That is why our tail enders are not hanging around much at all.
Broad unfortunately doesn't really look interested in trying to be someone who scores runs anymore (since he got his wack on the head).
The Aussies were talking about their selectors picking morons before the series started (Marsh and Paine) and unfortunately their gambles have worked, whereas ours (Vince) hasn't at all.
Yes we are not batting well, we seem to have a poor mentality of giving away our wickets stupidly and yes we didn't bowl well so far a lot of the time however to say this is an awful team is a huge exaggeration. I fully expect (assuming most of them are still playing) that this team will be successful in English summer. I also expect this team would be more than matching the Aussies if we are playing at home.
Good teams win consistantly at home, great teams win away. Unfortunately this isn't a great team but there are very few of those around (in fact probably none at the moment) in test cricket.
Our 2010/11 win was fantastic but we can't expect to be doing that all of the time. Cook had a mind blowing tour and we had a team that also included Trott in his prime, KP, and some experienced, established players. (prior, bell, collingwood).
We also had the huge advantage of having Swann. I don't think we can underestimate how important Lyon is to this series for the Aussies. Him playing (very) well has meant they can give their (very good) 3 fast bowlers short spells. We just don't have that unfortunately any more.
I honestly don't feel we are miles behind this Aussie team, what I do feel is that the places we are behind (our spin bowlers, our type of fast bowlers) make an Aussie team who are probably a little (at best) better than us look a whole lot better than us.
I can't see us winning at the WACA (depending on the arrival of our next child) I will be there on the Saturday however we need to improve our mentality of chasing everything. It is like we have improved our attacking and batting pace so much in one day we feel we need to go for it in test cricket as well, we have almost given up in building an innings.

 

[Shrimpers are Magic]

Tremlett wasn't exactly lightning pace but did have height and bounce (how many times have I said height and bounce recently?) also worth remembering the attack when we won the last two tests to win the ashes over there was Anderson, Tremlett and Bresnan, the latter bowling superbly at the MCG. Of course the key to it all was a class act in Swann holding up a end and taking important wickets allowing the big men to rest properly between spells.
It is so bleeding obvious where the main issue is and needs addressing sharpish.

 

[Shrimpers are Magic]

As well as Mark Wood, reserve keeper Ben Foakes is to play the next tour match. This is possibly a sign that the England management are so concerned by the impact Lyon is having that they are considering playing Foakes so Lyon has one less left hander to bowl at. Can only see Ali making way for a variety of reasons but mostly because a. he bats left handed and b. perth may not take spin (which shouldn't be a problem as he doesn't bowl any)
It's a massive call but something has to give - the ashes are already lost in my opinion but to compete in perth would be decent as we normally get blown away there.

 

[mattitouk]

I see Ben Duckett is suspended after pouring a pint over Anderson's head. What with the Stokes fight and Bairstows headbutt on Cameron Bancroft. It's safe to say our professionals do like a dust up in a pub.

 

[Shrimpers are Magic]

If Mark Wood is not selected to bowl at Perth then I'm finished bothering with them this winter. I would even consider dropping Anderson as he will get nothing on that surface but more likely they will drop Overton or Woakes, probably Woakes.