Jeremy Corbyn's Labour

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

Bit sticky on the Diane Abbott bit about his post though weren't you :winking:

I'm not sure what this means?

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to predict that a massively left leaning party are going to fail in country where the political climate is centre-right. If you're referring to 2016 because it was a year of political surprise, then remember that the surprises were all one-way traffic. I don't think you'll be seeing any surprise shifts to the left any time soon (and Le Pen losing would not constitute a "surprise" since she herself is an underdog).

Barna - Aligning with centre-left might curry some flavor with the electorate, but I would still back Tory to retain power (perhaps by a lesser majority). If things stay as they are, there will be no gains for Labour in a GE.

you weren't surprised that a left wing Muslim was voted in as Mayor of our capital city then?

 

[superblue24]

you weren't surprised that a left wing Muslim was voted in as Mayor of our capital city then?

Umm, no. Had you not noticed that most of London is Labour? London holds a HUGE ethnic minority electorate too.

 

[rigsby]

you weren't surprised that a left wing Muslim was voted in as Mayor of our capital city then?

Zac is a dry lunch. 80% of his own MP's think the same about Corbyn, luckily for all the other parties you Labour members don't agree.

See what happens when you give the people power....You get Corbyn. Shame the same people who voted for Corbyn and insist the people have spoken, can't except the same principle for Brexit.

 

[Shrimpers are Magic]

you weren't surprised that a left wing Muslim was voted in as Mayor of our capital city then?

What's being Muslim got to do with him being Mayor of London, why even bring his faith up?

 

[Benfleet A1]

Labour need 3 million extra votes more than what Beaker required to gain a majority of 1 in a general election. Big ask.

That came from the Fabian Society as well (apart from the Beaker bit, that was me)

 

[Gremlin]

It includes all the polls taken last year including the most recent one (13th-16th Dec) that I mentioned from the Observer which gives the Tories a 7 % point lead.

Perhaps your YouGov poll is a rogue poll? :winking:

Edit.I saw that in a poll of polls recently that the Tory lead was quoted as around 12%.I imagine we could probably agree on that.Expect that gap to close from next week onwards though.

Amazingly the Wikipedia page you seem to rely upon has now been updated to include this most recent "rogue poll".

Your "25% is history" statement remains accurate and a Tory lead of "around 12%" depends on whether you can accept 15% within your margin of error. I'm sure you can and will.

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

What's being Muslim got to do with him being Mayor of London, why even bring his faith up?

Why bring up his faith? That is a question for Goldsmith, Cameron, Fallon, the Evening Standard - and the answer is that if you are a Muslim standing for office in this country you are instantly at a disadvantage.


The Conservatives knew that their angle on this made them look racist but they played the percentages and decided that if they painted Sadiq as a dangerous Muslim and themselves as racist he would lose more votes than they would.


That is the facts of life - if you field a Muslim candidate you instantly lose a % of votes.


For Labour to field a Muslim candidate to fight for a job that was Tory for the last two terms and to win convincingly shows that 1) you can win office with a left win agenda 2) you can win office in places that were previously Tory 3) that if the press are against you and you have a massive party membership to mobilise then you can even the odds


But Labour in 2016 didn't just win in the capital they also won in the West and in the North.


When Labour win elections some people say it is despite Corbyn and when they do badly in opinion polls the same people say it's because of Corbyn.


2020 is a long way off and nothing is predictable in politics right now and when May's honeymoon period is over and the lack of hospital beds, lack of trains, lack of housing, lack of a plan with the EU are harder and harder to cover up there are 700,000+ Labour members ready to have face to face conversations with the full knowledge of how effective that was when they look the job of London Mayor off the Tories.

 

[mrsblue]

Why bring up his faith? That is a question for Goldsmith, Cameron, Fallon, the Evening Standard - and the answer is that if you are a Muslim standing for office in this country you are instantly at a disadvantage.


The Conservatives knew that their angle on this made them look racist but they played the percentages and decided that if they painted Sadiq as a dangerous Muslim and themselves as racist he would lose more votes than they would.


That is the facts of life - if you field a Muslim candidate you instantly lose a % of votes.


For Labour to field a Muslim candidate to fight for a job that was Tory for the last two terms and to win convincingly shows that 1) you can win office with a left win agenda 2) you can win office in places that were previously Tory 3) that if the press are against you and you have a massive party membership to mobilise then you can even the odds


But Labour in 2016 didn't just win in the capital they also won in the West and in the North.


When Labour win elections some people say it is despite Corbyn and when they do badly in opinion polls the same people say it's because of Corbyn.


2020 is a long way off and nothing is predictable in politics right now and when May's honeymoon period is over and the lack of hospital beds, lack of trains, lack of housing, lack of a plan with the EU are harder and harder to cover up there are 700,000+ Labour members ready to have face to face conversations with the full knowledge of how effective that was when they look the job of London Mayor off the Tories.

How many muslims live in London ?
How many Muslims voted for Khan ?

Scenario,

City called "white folk"... City has population of 8 million....Mayor candidates number 4....1 is Muslim and Asian....city has only 5% ethnic with 3% of these Muslim .....other 3 candidates are all white dudes.

Who do you think would be elected Mayor?

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

Umm, no. Had you not noticed that most of London is Labour? London holds a HUGE ethnic minority electorate too.

View attachment 4454

Boris Johnson - London Mayor 2008 to 2016 representing the Conservative Party.

When would the ethnic mix in London make any difference? Are the Chinese more likely to vote for a Muslim? Are Black Christians more likely to vote for a Muslim? Are Hindus more likely to vote for a Muslim? The fact that a mixed ethnic society is not necessarily an advantage to Sadiq can be shown in the way that the Conservatives targeted Hindus specifically to make them fear they would not be treated fairly with a Muslim mayor, and the whole non Muslim population generally to attempt to make us all fear him.

I invested many hours canvassing for Sadiq so clearly his religion is no issue for me but it is for a lot of people and not just whites but people of all races.

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

How many muslims live in London ?
How many Muslims voted for Khan ?

Scenario,

City called "white folk"... City has population of 8 million....Mayor candidates number 4....1 is Muslim and Asian....city has only 5% ethnic with 3% of these Muslim .....other 3 candidates are all white dudes.

Who do you think would be elected Mayor?

Dear Shrimpers Are Magic. See what I mean?

 

[mrsblue]

Dear Shrimpers Are Magic. See what I mean?

Would Khan have won if London had a small ethnic minority?......the answer would be Defo not IMO.

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

Would Khan have won if London had a small ethnic minority?......the answer would be Defo not IMO.

Dear Shrimpers Are Magic - do you see what I mean again?

 

[rigsby]

Boris Johnson - London Mayor 2008 to 2016 representing the Conservative Party.

When would the ethnic mix in London make any difference? Are the Chinese more likely to vote for a Muslim? Are Black Christians more likely to vote for a Muslim? Are Hindus more likely to vote for a Muslim? The fact that a mixed ethnic society is not necessarily an advantage to Sadiq can be shown in the way that the Conservatives targeted Hindus specifically to make them fear they would not be treated fairly with a Muslim mayor, and the whole non Muslim population generally to attempt to make us all fear him.

I invested many hours canvassing for Sadiq so clearly his religion is no issue for me but it is for a lot of people and not just whites but people of all races.

No your motivation was the fact that Zac Goldsmith comes from a wealthy family. That's a crime you have a real issue with.

 

[Benfleet A1]

How many muslims live in London ?
How many Muslims voted for Khan ?

Scenario,

City called "white folk"... City has population of 8 million....Mayor candidates number 4....1 is Muslim and Asian....city has only 5% ethnic with 3% of these Muslim .....other 3 candidates are all white dudes.

Who do you think would be elected Mayor?

So how did Boris get in, using your, err, WTF was you using? Please don't say a scenario, it really wasn't.

 

[mrsblue]

So how did Boris get in, using your, err, WTF was you using? Please don't say a scenario, it really wasn't.

Wasnt it Boris v Ken L ?

No contest then.

Cannot remember who he was against.

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

No your motivation was the fact that Zac Goldsmith comes from a wealthy family. That's a crime you have a real issue with.

thanks for enlightening me, that doesn't tie up with what I wrote in this thread about salary caps, I must have misunderstood my own thoughts and am so pleased you are here to explain them to me. Hours and hours wandering the streets and talking to strangers and I never even knew why I was doing it until now, it's........an epiphany

 

[Bearded Shrimper]

Would Khan have won if London had a small ethnic minority?......the answer would be Defo not IMO.

that's coz you're an idiot.
Khan was the best candidate, that's why he won. He won coz he was the better candidate and ran a better campaign. Goldsmith might well of won if he'd run as himself which is a fairly liberal, independent-minded, environmental Tory. In many ways the ideal candidate to take on the modern Labour (or Corbyn) Party. He then ran the very worst campaign for modern London and modern Labour.
That is why Khan won, he ran on stuff like making buses cost less

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

Wasnt it Boris v Ken L ?

No contest then.

a big Sadiq fan are you?

 

[Bearded Shrimper]

Labour need 3 million extra votes more than what Beaker required to gain a majority of 1 in a general election. Big ask.

That came from the Fabian Society as well (apart from the Beaker bit, that was me)

Beaker is/was a Lib Dem mate. Ed Miliband is many things but he's not ginger