Brexit negotiations thread

[Tangled up in Blue]

Its so the date can be extended. Surley that must be obvious to you

It's certainly a strong indication that Article 50 might be suspended,Revoked or extended.

 

[Spaceman Spiff]

It's certainly a strong indication that Article 50 might be invoked.

Article 50 was invoked in March 2017

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

Pointing out the obvious, she can ask to extend the date now. She doesn't have to wait until February,. Businesses are literally screaming for information and clarity and kicking the can further down the street isn't helping.

It must be remembered that EU may not agree to an extension.

It's a dangerous, dangerous game.

I can't see why the EU would agree to extend unless it was for something significant like a GE or new referendum, if its just that May couldn't get her **** together that is likely to be met with a shrug.

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...brexit-deal-likely-before-february-says-no-10

No second meaningful vote on May's Brexit deal until Febuary.Amazing attempt to run down the clock.

'May’s spokesman said the vote due to be held on 29 January was not “a second meaningful vote” and the government’s motion would not spell out in detail the next stage of the prime minister’s plan to get a Brexit agreement through parliament'.

And they wonder why MPs are trying to govern by sidestepping a government who refuse to govern.

 

[Lord Football]

Very true Lordy. All the more reason for Labour to stop being disingenuous and vote for the negotiated Brexit with the EU, to prevent further kicking of the can down the road, hey?

Your name is Rigsby and I claim my five pounds.

Absolutely ridiculous comment. Worthy of no further comment. Especially coming from someone who knows stuff.

 

[Lord Football]

I can't see why the EU would agree to extend unless it was for something significant like a GE or new referendum, if its just that May couldn't get her **** together that is likely to be met with a shrug.

There are two reasons....

1. The French, Irish and Dutch are not ready for D1ND.

2. The EU have a vested in interest in getting this right. Today, the IMF have just reported that Brexit will detriment the world economy if we no deal.

I think if we asked, we'd get.

 

[Spaceman Spiff]

Your name is Rigsby and I claim my five pounds.

Absolutely ridiculous comment. Worthy of no further comment. Especially coming from someone who knows stuff.

Oh come on Lordy, have a day off! You know as well as I do that Labour are as split as the Tories and desperately scratching around for any policy that avoids them needing to properly support Brexit or remain. The Customs Union is a ruse because the EU have ruled out ‘cherry picking’ from the four freedoms - so a customs union would also mean single market and freedom of movement. So basically not leaving at all then.

The bollocks about ‘ruling out no deal’ is exactly that: bollocks. If we legislated to never leave unless Parliament voted ‘for’ a deal, what incentive would there be for the EU to move at all? The whole negotiation process would be killed stone dead and we would remain.

Let me make some predictions for you:

1. There will be no second peoples vote
2. We will leave the EU
3. The backstop will look different when we leave
4. Getting the DUP to support the deal is the key tipping point which will bring Tory and Labour leave supporting MPs on side
5. An extension to Article 50 will be applied for and agreed by the EU after parliament approves the withdrawal deal, for a period long enough to allow the necessary legislation to be enacted.
6. Theresa May will still be PM on the day we do actually leave the EU.

Rant and rave in response if you must. I’ll accept your apology in March.

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

Oh come on Lordy, have a day off! You know as well as I do that Labour are as split as the Tories and desperately scratching around for any policy that avoids them needing to properly support Brexit or remain. The Customs Union is a ruse because the EU have ruled out ‘cherry picking’ from the four freedoms - so a customs union would also mean single market and freedom of movement. So basically not leaving at all then.

The bollocks about ‘ruling out no deal’ is exactly that: bollocks. If we legislated to never leave unless Parliament voted ‘for’ a deal, what incentive would there be for the EU to move at all? The whole negotiation process would be killed stone dead and we would remain.

Let me make some predictions for you:

1. There will be no second peoples vote
2. We will leave the EU
3. The backstop will look different when we leave
4. Getting the DUP to support the deal is the key tipping point which will bring Tory and Labour leave supporting MPs on side
5. An extension to Article 50 will be applied for and agreed by the EU after parliament approves the withdrawal deal, for a period long enough to allow the necessary legislation to be enacted.
6. Theresa May will still be PM on the day we do actually leave the EU.

Rant and rave in response if you must. I’ll accept your apology in March.

That is a big tip if 10 MPs from a party who have 10 MPs can get 221 others to follow their lead.

 

[Spaceman Spiff]

That is a big tip if 10 MPs from a party who have 10 MPs can get 221 others to follow their lead.

They can’t and don’t need to. But a deal on the backstop which the DUP could support would also be one the other Brexit supporting and referendum-honouring MPs could support. By the way, a defeat of 230 means you need to change the votes of 116 people to change the result.

 

[Massimo Giovanni]

They can’t and don’t need to. But a deal on the backstop which the DUP could support would also be one the other Brexit supporting and referendum-honouring MPs could support. By the way, a defeat of 230 means you need to change the votes of 116 people to change the result.

I am not sure how I feel about that scenario, the TM seems a very poor one, perhaps close to the No Deal beats a Bad Deal situation.

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

They can’t and don’t need to. But a deal on the backstop which the DUP could support would also be one the other Brexit supporting and referendum-honouring MPs could support. By the way, a defeat of 230 means you need to change the votes of 116 people to change the result.

True on the maths - I had the 230 stuck in my head.
What can she offer that DUP, EU and all the Tories who neyed will get behind?

 

[Spaceman Spiff]

True on the maths - I had the 230 stuck in my head.
What can she offer that DUP, EU and all the Tories who neyed will get behind?

This is the key question, regarding the backstop. Everybody agrees to the ends (no hard border) but disagrees over the means (‘backstop’ I.e. we cant exit the EU fully without permission. Clearly, the means as they are are not the only way to achieve the ends. But to bring the EU to the table, time needs to be running out: that is how ALL EU negotiations always work. There will need to be something that allows all sides to save face - not so impossible. The mechanism requires creative thinking and the will to get there - from both us and the EU. This is why the olive branch re: settled status fees is important and may well be followed by further olive branches, for example on workers rights and environmental standards - possibly even a promise to limit divergence on tax policy for a few years. It’s completely possible so long as those who have no interest in supporting any kind of genuine solution whatsoever (Labour, SNP) don’t succeed in tying the government in knots thanks to parliamentary arithmetic rather than any better solution or policy on their part.

 

[blues exile]

How about seven, just off the top of my, for example

Wide ranging free trade deal with Canada which allows free access to the Canadian market and allows for cheaper Canadian goods to be sold here.

Wide ranging free trade deal with Japan which allows for UK businesses to expand into the Japanese market and for cheaper Japanese goods to be sold here

Introduction of the Anti Tax Avoidance Directive which will bring more money into government coffers

Update of the Cash Controls Regulation which makes illegal movements cash that much harder for

This is the key question, regarding the backstop. Everybody agrees to the ends (no hard border) but disagrees over the means (‘backstop’ I.e. we cant exit the EU fully without permission. Clearly, the means as they are are not the only way to achieve the ends. But to bring the EU to the table, time needs to be running out: that is how ALL EU negotiations always work. There will need to be something that allows all sides to save face - not so impossible. The mechanism requires creative thinking and the will to get there - from both us and the EU. This is why the olive branch re: settled status fees is important and may well be followed by further olive branches, for example on workers rights and environmental standards - possibly even a promise to limit divergence on tax policy for a few years. It’s completely possible so long as those who have no interest in supporting any kind of genuine solution whatsoever (Labour, SNP) don’t succeed in tying the government in knots thanks to parliamentary arithmetic rather than any better solution or policy on their part.

The recission of the Settled Status fee is nothing more than a gesture which will be welcomed by those affected, but in the overall scheme of things is insignificant, after all, it was only introduced by the Tories very recently. It has no bearing on the intractable issue of the Irish backstop. From today's events, it is clear that May is just playing for time, stalling with no intention of changing or modifying her self imposed red lines. As ever, more concerned with trying to keep her party together and the DUP sweet rather than the national interest.

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

This is the key question, regarding the backstop. Everybody agrees to the ends (no hard border) but disagrees over the means (‘backstop’ I.e. we cant exit the EU fully without permission. Clearly, the means as they are are not the only way to achieve the ends. But to bring the EU to the table, time needs to be running out: that is how ALL EU negotiations always work. There will need to be something that allows all sides to save face - not so impossible. The mechanism requires creative thinking and the will to get there - from both us and the EU. This is why the olive branch re: settled status fees is important and may well be followed by further olive branches, for example on workers rights and environmental standards - possibly even a promise to limit divergence on tax policy for a few years. It’s completely possible so long as those who have no interest in supporting any kind of genuine solution whatsoever (Labour, SNP) don’t succeed in tying the government in knots thanks to parliamentary arithmetic rather than any better solution or policy on their part.

Agreed that creative thinking is needed but creativity is something Mrs May lacks (the 'Go Home' were novel I guess). I think running down the clock is because she can't figure a way out of the cul de sac not to panic the EU into caving in.
Those that don't want a deal could include Labour and SNP but also includes ERG who want No Deal and the Tory Remainers who want to cancel A50.
The conclusion is still that she has created an impossible situation and is doing very little to alleviate it.

 

[Lord Football]

Oh come on Lordy, have a day off! You know as well as I do that Labour are as split as the Tories and desperately scratching around for any policy that avoids them needing to properly support Brexit or remain. The Customs Union is a ruse because the EU have ruled out ‘cherry picking’ from the four freedoms - so a customs union would also mean single market and freedom of movement. So basically not leaving at all then.

The bollocks about ‘ruling out no deal’ is exactly that: bollocks. If we legislated to never leave unless Parliament voted ‘for’ a deal, what incentive would there be for the EU to move at all? The whole negotiation process would be killed stone dead and we would remain.

Let me make some predictions for you:

1. There will be no second peoples vote
2. We will leave the EU
3. The backstop will look different when we leave
4. Getting the DUP to support the deal is the key tipping point which will bring Tory and Labour leave supporting MPs on side
5. An extension to Article 50 will be applied for and agreed by the EU after parliament approves the withdrawal deal, for a period long enough to allow the necessary legislation to be enacted.
6. Theresa May will still be PM on the day we do actually leave the EU.

Rant and rave in response if you must. I’ll accept your apology in March.

I really do have a Brexit to fix. So days off aren't something I'm likely to enjoy for some time.

And with the exception your point 5 (only because I have a different professional perspective than you) I've pretty much said the same as you throughout this recent debate.

Brexit has always hinged on Northern Ireland.

I'm not quite sure why you felt the need to rant at me about Corbyn.

 

[Spaceman Spiff]

I really do have a Brexit to fix. So days off aren't something I'm likely to enjoy for some time.

And with the exception your point 5 (only because I have a different professional perspective than you) I've pretty much said the same as you throughout this recent debate.

Brexit has always hinged on Northern Ireland.

I'm not quite sure why you felt the need to rant at me about Corbyn.

On that last point, I thought it was obvious. You had only just been ranting at me for saying that Labour are the problem as regards any can kicking that may be happening/necessary. So I decided to back that up with the reasons why that is the case. Call that a rant if you wish; I’d always understood rants to necessarily have less basis in reality.

On the subject of reality, you have a Brexit to fix do you? Well that’s odd, I haven’t seen you about much in Westminster. I work right with the Cabinet Office Brexit team on Parliament square. I don’t work directly on it myself, but I do work directly to John Manzoni. Do you know who heads the CO Brexit team up? I do. In addition to working with him now I worked with him for 10 years at the Home Office, and many moons ago before I was a civil servant I worked for his mum (!). I also regularly go to DExEU. I am there tomorrow, for a meeting with two SCS colleagues. I’m not sure whether you even know where they are based do you? As such, I’m not sure I need any lectures about Brexit or what it involves thanks. All I do need to do (when the repetitiveness isn’t boring the tits off me) is get out there and keep dispelling the crap people regurgitate from the news.

 

[Spaceman Spiff]

Agreed that creative thinking is needed but creativity is something Mrs May lacks (the 'Go Home' were novel I guess). I think running down the clock is because she can't figure a way out of the cul de sac not to panic the EU into caving in.
Those that don't want a deal could include Labour and SNP but also includes ERG who want No Deal and the Tory Remainers who want to cancel A50.
The conclusion is still that she has created an impossible situation and is doing very little to alleviate it.

Indeed A_SS, the hard remainers who haven’t accepted the referendum result are a big problem. However, the best way to expose them is to isolate them. That is why solving the backstop, to the extent that it gets the DUP and referendum-respecting MPs on side, is so important. There will be nobody but the hard remainer Tories and SNP left (who are quite happy to be exposed as such) other than Labour. There would be no possible excuse left for whinging on about a second peoples vote or staying in the customs union then. And guess what, just like they did when they voted for the referendum, the EU Withdrawal Act and the triggering of Article 50, when there is nowhere left to hide Labour will finally do the decent thing out of fear of being exposed as the unprincipled politickers they are. Theresa May hasn’t ‘created’ this situation, although she could certainly have managed it far better in terms of involving parliament more. To infer that Labour would have been any more open had they been in charge is not credible: does anyone remember Iraq, for a start?

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

Indeed A_SS, the hard remainers who haven’t accepted the referendum result are a big problem. However, the best way to expose them is to isolate them. That is why solving the backstop, to the extent that it gets the DUP and referendum-respecting MPs on side, is so important. There will be nobody but the hard remainer Tories and SNP left (who are quite happy to be exposed as such) other than Labour. There would be no possible excuse left for whinging on about a second peoples vote or staying in the customs union then. And guess what, just like they did when they voted for the referendum, the EU Withdrawal Act and the triggering of Article 50, when there is nowhere left to hide Labour will finally do the decent thing out of fear of being exposed as the unprincipled politickers they are. Theresa May hasn’t ‘created’ this situation, although she could certainly have managed it far better in terms of involving parliament more. To infer that Labour would have been any more open had they been in charge is not credible: does anyone remember Iraq, for a start?

There is an Iraq thread there waiting to be used. Corbyn voted against sending troops in as did McDonnell and Abbot. Strange that people seize on a decision made 16 years ago when trying to critique Labour.

It's absolutely May's fault. She accepted the job of PM when the other contenders dropped out, she broke the fixed term rule and risked David Cameron's majority and called an election without a manifesto or campaign to speak of, she showed her weakness to DUP with £1bn of taxpayers money and gave a new angle of difficulty making promises to them that didn't fit other needs, she argued with her own party for 2.5+ years more than the EU, she tried to cut out Parliament even with court cases and lost MPs' trust, she told her cabinet they would agree with her rather than listen to them so they quit - drip drip 13 of them, she wasted a crucial month when she had her deal ready to go and her plan B is just the same deal after it was voted down by 230 votes to add to the three losses in one day and being found in contempt of Parliament.

Of course it is May's fault, she has made wrong turns at every given opportunity. It's bafflingly bad and embarrassing that the whole word can see and associates that performance with us as a nation. It's her fault.

 

[Lord Football]

On that last point, I thought it was obvious. You had only just been ranting at me for saying that Labour are the problem as regards any can kicking that may be happening/necessary. So I decided to back that up with the reasons why that is the case. Call that a rant if you wish; I’d always understood rants to necessarily have less basis in reality.

On the subject of reality, you have a Brexit to fix do you? Well that’s odd, I haven’t seen you about much in Westminster. I work right with the Cabinet Office Brexit team on Parliament square. I don’t work directly on it myself, but I do work directly to John Manzoni. Do you know who heads the CO Brexit team up? I do. In addition to working with him now I worked with him for 10 years at the Home Office, and many moons ago before I was a civil servant I worked for his mum (!). I also regularly go to DExEU. I am there tomorrow, for a meeting with two SCS colleagues. I’m not sure whether you even know where they are based do you? As such, I’m not sure I need any lectures about Brexit or what it involves thanks. All I do need to do (when the repetitiveness isn’t boring the tits off me) is get out there and keep dispelling the crap people regurgitate from the news.

Taken the advice below...... Discussion happening elsewhere.

We both clearly know lots and I suspect Spacey is as stressed and tired and grumpy as me.

 

[Shrimpers are Magic]

I myself can always be found in the kitchen at parties.
Now stop your bitching or take it OUTSIDE!