Clohessey v. Assombalonga

[Pubey]

There was a great article from Simon Kuper (I think) the other week, explaining the increasing prevalence of Moneyball-esque statistical analysis in football. It’s on the rise, and clubs who don’t use it are going to be left behind. Chelsea are widely regarded as having the best approach in the Premier League, right down to Abramovich sanctioning statisticians to compile a database of penalties that can be accessed when needed.

However, he also mentioned that it can go wrong and backfire quite spectacularly, which is just what’s alleged to have happened at Liverpool. Basically, Fenway came in and Dalglish/Comolli were given the remit that transfers had to make sense from both a financial and statistical outlook. Carroll was highlighted as being the striker in the Premier League with the highest conversion rate of crossed balls into the box, so was bought at an outlandish price. When he backfired, Fenway attempted to address the situation by recruiting the player who delivered the most crosses into the box – step forward Aston Villa’s Stewart Downing who, with Fenway believing that he’d solve Carroll’s malaise, was also recruited at an outlandish price.

On a very base level, it made sense. Best conversion rate + best crossing rate = goals. Only, such is the organisation and nature of Premier League defences, scoring from a cross into the box is supposed to be the least efficient means of actually scoring a goal. Liverpool completely failed to factor in that data, and spent in excess of £50m on a dud project. The failure to recognise that cost Comolli his job, with Dalglish falling soon after.

There’s countless analyses that are similar – the number of freekicks that are shots on goal is dwindling massively after the sports science/data analysis team hired by the German national team uncovered that the success rate of scoring directly is significantly lower than the success rate of floating a delivery into a dangerous area.

The Carroll/Downing stuff is really interesting, especially as they were often substituted for each other. There seemed to be a major disconnect through the club.

 

[EastStandBlue]

The Carroll/Downing stuff is really interesting, especially as they were often substituted for each other. There seemed to be a major disconnect through the club.

The archetypal example of how not to install a director of football above the manager. I've no time for Dalglish, he spent more time last season being belligerent and cantankerous in his defence of a man who admitted using a racist term than actually managing Liverpool, but I felt sorry for him in that respect. He quite obviously had players thrust upon him who he had no idea what to do with.

 

[Yorkshire Blue]

The archetypal example of how not to install a director of football above the manager. I've no time for Dalglish, he spent more time last season being belligerent and cantankerous in his defence of a man who admitted using a racist term than actually managing Liverpool, but I felt sorry for him in that respect. He quite obviously had players thrust upon him who he had no idea what to do with.

Only if he's gone senile.

The side he built at Blackburn was built around Wilcox and Ripley's crosses for Shearer.

The bigger problem would be how to fit a player he inherited, Gerrard, into that system.

 

[C C Csiders]

The only view I have on this is that the name Assombalonga sounds like a medical term for soembody with extended depression.

 

[Shrimper2thecore]

In today's game stats and tactics are becoming increasingly important!

Tactics are needed nowadays! Stats are needed! To analyse a players performance! Surely a player who makes more completed passes is better than a player who doesn't?

Depends if that is all your viewing. For example a striker may decide not to pass to him team all match, but scores a hattrick, has clearly done well, regardless of his pass completion stats.

 

[EastStandBlue]

Only if he's gone senile.

The side he built at Blackburn was built around Wilcox and Ripley's crosses for Shearer.

The bigger problem would be how to fit a player he inherited, Gerrard, into that system.

I wouldn't rule that out.

But I agree with you about Gerrard, especially after he dialled in a particularly dismal performance yesterday. Judging by the players he spent most of the summer either acquiring or attempting to acquire (Allen, Sigurdsson, Sahin), you'd have to imagine that Brendan Rodgers is of the same frame of mind.

 

[Onion_Bag_Dave]

Depends if that is all your viewing. For example a striker may decide not to pass to him team all match, but scores a hattrick, has clearly done well, regardless of his pass completion stats.

Of course. It was just an example.

There is a way you could work our who is effective.

I've written some notes down for a laugh, will try and work it out a bit more in depth!

 

[Yorkshire Blue]

Depends if that is all your viewing. For example a striker may decide not to pass to him team all match, but scores a hattrick, has clearly done well, regardless of his pass completion stats.

You are judging the striker a success there on his statistics.....

 

[Shrimper2thecore]

You are judging the striker a success there on his statistics.....

Yes, but on the statistic that ultimately wins football matches - goals.

Don't get me wrong, I am actually a big fan of stats, but it's true that they can generally be used to show whatever you want them to show.

 

[onceknownasrab]

There was a great article from Simon Kuper (I think) the other week, explaining the increasing prevalence of Moneyball-esque statistical analysis in football. It’s on the rise, and clubs who don’t use it are going to be left behind. Chelsea are widely regarded as having the best approach in the Premier League, right down to Abramovich sanctioning statisticians to compile a database of penalties that can be accessed when needed.

However, he also mentioned that it can go wrong and backfire quite spectacularly, which is just what’s alleged to have happened at Liverpool. Basically, Fenway came in and Dalglish/Comolli were given the remit that transfers had to make sense from both a financial and statistical outlook. Carroll was highlighted as being the striker in the Premier League with the highest conversion rate of crossed balls into the box, so was bought at an outlandish price. When he backfired, Fenway attempted to address the situation by recruiting the player who delivered the most crosses into the box – step forward Aston Villa’s Stewart Downing who, with Fenway believing that he’d solve Carroll’s malaise, was also recruited at an outlandish price.

On a very base level, it made sense. Best conversion rate + best crossing rate = goals. Only, such is the organisation and nature of Premier League defences, scoring from a cross into the box is supposed to be the least efficient means of actually scoring a goal. Liverpool completely failed to factor in that data, and spent in excess of £50m on a dud project. The failure to recognise that cost Comolli his job, with Dalglish falling soon after.

There’s countless analyses that are similar – the number of freekicks that are shots on goal is dwindling massively after the sports science/data analysis team hired by the German national team uncovered that the success rate of scoring directly is significantly lower than the success rate of floating a delivery into a dangerous area.

Thoroughly interesting and enlightening post. :thumbsup: