December fixtures

[Adam]

Great win at the weekend and a really important three points going into a crucial run of December fixtures.

Feels like the next month will define our season, good run and we'll close on the majority of teams in the play offs / automatic spots. Poor run and it's mid-table obscurity for this season.

What everyone's predictions in the following fixtures?

Bristol Rovers (A)
Bradford (H)
Scunthorpe United (A)
Charlton Athletic (H)
Shrewsbury Town (H)

 

[Depor_Shrimper]

Here's my view based upon current form . . .

15th Bristol Rovers (A)

Rovers are currently ranked 8th best team in terms of home form (22nd away) with 2 wins and 1 loss (AFC Wimbledon 1-3) in the past three games. We are currently ranked 21st in the away league table, although current form (last 3 away fixtures) indicates an improving outlook (1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss). So taking the stats into account, a draw or a narrow loss is the most likely outcome. Prediction - SCORE DRAW

5th Bradford (H)

Bradford's away form is the best in the division with 23 points collected to date and only one loss. Our home record is 4th best in the division (interestingly Bradford are only 18th with 13 points). The form record over the past six games amplifies the season record for the visitors with 3 home losses and 3 away wins (Shrewsbury, Wigan, Portsmouth). The stats are pointing towards a draw (or a one-goal win to the away team - although in truth there's not much in it). Prediction - SCORE DRAW

3rd Scunthorpe (A)

Scunny have a more balanced home/away form record although to date they are only 7th in the home table with 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses (Wigan the most recent loss in mid-October). On the other hand, in terms of the past six games there is no team better in the division with a maximum 6 wins, 13 goals scored and just 4 conceded. Getting a result here will be an excellent achievement however quite unlikely. Prediction - LOSS

6th Charlton (H)

CAFC are 7th in the away league table (having played one game less) and are one place below us in the form table based on goal difference. Their most recent away loss as unsurprisingly to Scunthorpe two weeks ago (0-2). Our result at The Valley in September (2-1 loss) indicated that there wasn't much between the two sides - in truth not a lot has changed since then. Statistically speaking the respective home/away records point towards a draw but again a narrow win either way is just as likely as per the away fixture. Prediction - SCORE DRAW

2nd Shrewsbury (H)

Shrewsbury's form has dipped in recent weeks placing only 9th in the table over the past six games, with 1 win and 2 losses recorded away from home. Over the course of the season to date they fair slightly better as the 5th ranked team away from home with 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses (Bury, Peterborough) - however they are falling compared to a month ago. This is probably our most winnable home fixture in December when you look beyond their current league position. Prediction - WIN

Total points: 6/15

Of course, this does not take into account the likely effect of momentum from games won or drawn in the run up to the next fixture and the results of the teams we face before we play them. In other words everything could change by the time we meet Scunthorpe which could tip the balance in favour of a draw or win!

 

[Stan33]

That makes depressing reading ,thank goodness it's all guess work & so wrong!

 

[Depor_Shrimper]

We're up against four teams in the top six league positions - it's more about moderating expectation. Yes we could beat all five teams however in order to achieve that we would need either a huge amount of luck or a sudden change in form that would make us title contenders. Anything below 6 points would seriously dent any hope of play-offs in my opinion, on the other hand if we collect over 10 points then the second half of the season could really end up being something special.

 

[Stan33]

But surely if we r serious about promo ,the points we have now means realistically we need more than 6 points ?

 

[Depor_Shrimper]

Yes you're probably right, however the main aim needs to be keeping within touching distance as a minimum therefore not losing to teams above us. Then when we have an "easier" run of fixtures we can look to catch-up the deficit.

 

[Ricky Otto]

Hard games but a real opportunity, we are adrift of the top 6 and we play 4 of them this month! Great opportunity to make sure we gain points at their expense and catch up. If we are going to have an upturn in form, now is when we need it.

 

[rigsby]

We're up against four teams in the top six league positions - it's more about moderating expectation. Yes we could beat all five teams however in order to achieve that we would need either a huge amount of luck or a sudden change in form that would make us title contenders. Anything below 6 points would seriously dent any hope of play-offs in my opinion, on the other hand if we collect over 10 points then the second half of the season could really end up being something special.

On paper January has easier fixtures, so if we come out of December with 7 points we should be on course for a top 10 finish.

With the new stadium looking closer than ever, enjoying L1 at RH this season might be last time any of us may get the chance.

As the Berliners use to say in late 1944.... "Enjoy the war.....The peace will be terrible."

 

[Leoblue]

Here's my view based upon current form . . .

15th Bristol Rovers (A)

Rovers are currently ranked 8th best team in terms of home form (22nd away) with 2 wins and 1 loss (AFC Wimbledon 1-3) in the past three games. We are currently ranked 21st in the away league table, although current form (last 3 away fixtures) indicates an improving outlook (1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss). So taking the stats into account, a draw or a narrow loss is the most likely outcome. Prediction - SCORE DRAW

5th Bradford (H)

Bradford's away form is the best in the division with 23 points collected to date and only one loss. Our home record is 4th best in the division (interestingly Bradford are only 18th with 13 points). The form record over the past six games amplifies the season record for the visitors with 3 home losses and 3 away wins (Shrewsbury, Wigan, Portsmouth). The stats are pointing towards a draw (or a one-goal win to the away team - although in truth there's not much in it). Prediction - SCORE DRAW

3rd Scunthorpe (A)

Scunny have a more balanced home/away form record although to date they are only 7th in the home table with 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses (Wigan the most recent loss in mid-October). On the other hand, in terms of the past six games there is no team better in the division with a maximum 6 wins, 13 goals scored and just 4 conceded. Getting a result here will be an excellent achievement however quite unlikely. Prediction - LOSS

6th Charlton (H)

CAFC are 7th in the away league table (having played one game less) and are one place below us in the form table based on goal difference. Their most recent away loss as unsurprisingly to Scunthorpe two weeks ago (0-2). Our result at The Valley in September (2-1 loss) indicated that there wasn't much between the two sides - in truth not a lot has changed since then. Statistically speaking the respective home/away records point towards a draw but again a narrow win either way is just as likely as per the away fixture. Prediction - SCORE DRAW

2nd Shrewsbury (H)

Shrewsbury's form has dipped in recent weeks placing only 9th in the table over the past six games, with 1 win and 2 losses recorded away from home. Over the course of the season to date they fair slightly better as the 5th ranked team away from home with 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses (Bury, Peterborough) - however they are falling compared to a month ago. This is probably our most winnable home fixture in December when you look beyond their current league position. Prediction - WIN

Total points: 6/15

Of course, this does not take into account the likely effect of momentum from games won or drawn in the run up to the next fixture and the results of the teams we face before we play them. In other words everything could change by the time we meet Scunthorpe which could tip the balance in favour of a draw or win!

I think you've probably have got it right there.... It's not enough points though, we're seriously playing catch up and need to pick up a lot more.

 

[Stan33]

Please. there r no easy fictures ,take 1 game at a time & try 2 win them all ,I'm half full sort of guy !��������

 

[AndyT]

All would not be lost with that return, as 'depor' says.

Most seasons, around 73 points is enough for the play-offs, so that's 45 more points (or 15 wins).

We have 26 games left, so can almost afford to lose as many as we win. The key is not to lose to those sides up the top with us and the results above suggest that is achievable.

Remember, in 2015/16 Barnsley went up and they were bottom on 1st December 2015!

 

[Leoblue]

On paper January has easier fixtures, so if we come out of December with 7 points we should be on course for a top 10 finish.

With the new stadium looking closer than ever, enjoying L1 at RH this season might be last time any of us may get the chance.

As the Berliners use to say in late 1944.... "Enjoy the war.....The peace will be terrible."

I can't see this being our last season at RH. Even if they start work just before Xmas (if the council gives us the go ahead), the scale of the project is huge. It's not just a stadium to build, it's everything that goes with it.

We have another year and half at RH at least.

 

[Stan33]

Never heard that 1 b4 !

 

[Leoblue]

All would not be lost with that return, as 'depor' says.

Most seasons, around 73 points is enough for the play-offs, so that's 45 more points (or 15 wins).

We have 26 games left, so can almost afford to lose as many as we win. The key is not to lose to those sides up the top with us and the results above suggest that is achievable.

Remember, in 2015/16 Barnsley went up and they were bottom on 1st December 2015!

Were they really? That's quite remarkable.

 

[AndyT]

Yep, I have the table somewhere 'Leo'. There you go :-

https://www.11v11.com/league-tables/league-one/04-december-2015/

Remarkable, I agree.

 

[rigsby]

I can't see this being our last season at RH. Even if they start work just before Xmas (if the council gives us the go ahead), the scale of the project is huge. It's not just a stadium to build, it's everything that goes with it.

We have another year and half at RH at least.

Yes I agree.

However if they do start work then the expectation will increase.....Nothing less than promotion on the back of 3-0 wins will be a failure. We already have some fans believing we should be a regular top 10 Championship side.


7th last season was in our top 15 ever finishes in over 100 years. We finished well above our budget, had some cracking games and scored 70 goals. Which is more goals than Dave Webb ever achieved. Yet some claim they weren't 'entertained' enough.

 

[Ayrshire Blue]

Depends how we play of course but turn up like we did Saturday we'll beat anyone at home

I'll predict;

Bristol Rovers (A) Win
Bradford (H) Win
Scunthorpe United (A) Lose (we never bloody win there)
Charlton Athletic (H) Draw
Shrewsbury Town (H) Draw

 

[Depor_Shrimper]

Depends how we play of course but turn up like we did Saturday we'll beat anyone at home

I'll predict;

Bristol Rovers (A) Win
Bradford (H) Win
Scunthorpe United (A) Lose (we never bloody win there)
Charlton Athletic (H) Draw
Shrewsbury Town (H) Draw

Bradford have the best away record in the league, it's interesting that you have us down for the win but yet we only draw against Charlton and Shrewsbury?

 

[rigsby]

Yep, I have the table somewhere 'Leo'. There you go :-

https://www.11v11.com/league-tables/league-one/04-december-2015/

Remarkable, I agree.

Interestingly Coventry were 2nd but fell away and ended up in L2 within 18 months. Gills were 4th and Edinburgh was flavour of the month but they had a poor second half and only just escaped relegation last season, perhaps helped by that ridiculous red against Innis.

Gills also come back from 1-0 down, first game of the season to win at RH. So linking in with your other thread how many times has that happened in the last 3 years......Southend losing at home after leading by a goal.

 

[Leoblue]

Yes I agree.

However if they do start work then the expectation will increase.....Nothing less than promotion on the back of 3-0 wins will be a failure. We already have some fans believing we should be a regular top 10 Championship side.


7th last season was in our top 15 ever finishes in over 100 years. We finished well above our budget, had some cracking games and scored 70 goals. Which is more goals than Dave Webb ever achieved. Yet some claim they weren't 'entertained' enough.

Being at RH we'll always be a top 10 Lg 1 side with an odd season in the Championship at best. We just can't move forward as club at RH..

With our new ground I certainly can see us being a top 10 Championship side though (that's if it's 4 sided).

I really don't have a problem with people being excited over our future, but they've got to be realistic with where we're playing our football right now. RH is a dump and the facilities are very poor, give us a new shiny stadium and more people will come along. We know we have the catchment area and I know for a fact that the ticket office have 30,000 + on there data base who have attended a Southend match.

I LIKE TO THINK OF IT LIKE THIS. Football aside, would you rather go to RH and watch a concert with Elton John OR a new stadium with great facilities and don't get high on urine fumes? People prefer comfort these days when paying good money for entertainment.