Eastleigh By-Election

[C C Csiders]

There will be something hugely wrong with democracy in this country if the candidate standing for the Beer, Baccy and Crumpet Party doesn't sail into Westminster.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

There will be something hugely wrong with democracy in this country if The Lib/Dems don't sail back into Westminster.

Corrected for you.:winking:

 

[superblue24]

Lib Dems followed by UKIP. Labour nowhere.

I would have voted the "Elvis Loves Pets" party...

 

[Benfleet A1]

I'm sure our Labour loving buddies of this board will dumb down UKIP's performance but lets have this right, 27.8% of the vote up 24.20% on the last general election taking a 14% swing from the LibDems and knocking the Tories into third place. Take it how you like but that is one hell of a performance and a clear message to all three of the so called main parties.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

[video]http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-21625726[/video]

I'm sure our Labour loving buddies of this board will dumb down UKIP's performance but lets have this right, 27.8% of the vote up 24.20% on the last general election taking a 14% swing from the LibDems and knocking the Tories into third place. Take it how you like but that is one hell of a performance and a clear message to all three of the so called main parties.

Be careful what you wish for.

Personally I'll start to take UKIP seriously when (or if) they ever win a parliamentary seat.

Certainly not before that.

In any case UKIP would seem to be more of a threat to the Tories and the Sex/dems than anything else.
Labour held onto its core vote at Eastleigh.Although Labour lost its deposit, Eastleigh is hardly a target seat for them(148 on the list, IIRC)whereas it's 18th on the Tories hit list and a seat they must win back if they're to win an absolute majority at the next election.

 

[Benfleet A1]

[video]http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-21625726[/video]



Be careful what you wish for.

Personally I'll start to take UKIP seriously when (or if) they ever win a parliamentary seat.

Certainly not before that.

And just like the shop keeper in Mr Benn, Barna appears. I know what I'm wishing for and with last nights results I very nearly got it. The LibDems, Labour and the Tories threw everything they had at Eastleigh and sent every high profile name they could find to fight their causes. UKIP's high profile names were Nigel Lafarge and erm, that was it. Rubbish it all you like, UKIP caused a major stir last night.

Care to comment on Labours woeful performance?

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

And just like the shop keeper in Mr Benn, Barna appears. I know what I'm wishing for and with last nights results I very nearly got it. The LibDems, Labour and the Tories threw everything they had at Eastleigh and sent every high profile name they could find to fight their causes. UKIP's high profile names were Nigel Lafarge and erm, that was it. Rubbish it all you like, UKIP caused a major stir last night.

Care to comment on Labours woeful performance?

Scroll up.

 

[Neil_F]

Labour held onto its core vote at Eastleigh.Although Labour lost its deposit, Eastleigh is hardly a target seat for them(148 on the list, IIRC).

I thought Labour were the One Nation party???

By-elections never have any long-term impact so it is a dangerous game to read too much into them. However...

There is clearly huge disenchantment with the three main parties. UKIP has now become the protest party that the Lib Dems used to be. The Lib Dems may not get wiped out at the next election as everyone thinks. They clearly aren't going to gain any seats and they may lose a few to Labour but they can clearly defend seats effectively.

For Labour it is difficult to see where they are going to pick up enough seats to win a majority. They are nowhere in the south of England (except parts of London) and there are few realistic seats to gain from the Tories.

For the Tories, the same applies as to Labour. I can't see how they will win a majority. They are fighting for perhaps 30 seats at most, mainly with the Lib Dems, and I don't see how they will win them. With UKIP the main protest party they will surely lose some seats where their vote is split.

It is hard to see how we end up with anything other than another hung parliament, though probably with Labour as the largest party.

 

[Benfleet A1]

Scroll up.

Sorry missed that bit for some reason (nightshift is killing me) but after reading it are you really being serious? The opposition party looses its deposit and raises it share of the vote by 0.2% in a mid term by-election at a time when they are 8-10 points ahead in all the polls, surely alarm bells should be ringing. Even O'Farrell has admitted that UKIP has taken some of the Labour vote. I know you are completely blinkered but even you must admit that last night was a car crash for Labour and the Tories and a hollow victory for the LibDems.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

Sorry missed that bit for some reason (nightshift is killing me) but after reading it are you really being serious? The opposition party looses its deposit and raises it share of the vote by 0.2% in a mid term by-election at a time when they are 8-10 points ahead in all the polls, surely alarm bells should be ringing. Even O'Farrell has admitted that UKIP has taken some of the Labour vote. I know you are completely blinkered but even you must admit that last night was a car crash for Labour and the Tories and a hollow victory for the LibDems.

The oppostion party in Eastleigh wasn't Labour it was the Tories.

The Labour candidate was an oddball who made an unforgivable comment about Thatcher in his book and should never have been selected in the first place.

As I implied, it was always going to be an unwinnable seat for Labour, whatever the circumstances.

If I were a Tory, (which thank the Lord I'm not sir) I'd be worried though.

 

[dloman]

The oppostion party in Eastleigh wasn't Labour it was the Tories.

The Labour candidate was an oddball who made an unforgivable comment about Thatcher in his book and should never have been selected in the first place.

As I implied, it was always going to be an unwinnable seat for Labour, whatever the circumstances.

If I were a Tory, (which thank the Lord I'm not sir) I'd be worried though.

Have to disagree, the main opposition party in parliament in a mid term by election would be expecting to see an increase in their vote wherever the seat is. Interestingly from a conservative point of view this may not be as bad as it looks, as if Lib Dems had lost the seat to Cons it would have put intense pressure on the coalition as a whole. Nick Clegg had already had a bad few weeks and the pressure from within his own party could have forced the coalition into **** down, as bar him and Alexander there is little support from within.

In essence a Conservative win could have quite conceivably resulted in the demise of the working government and forced a general election.

 

[dloman]

Hmmm filter seems to think **** (tlem. The word backwards) is a swear word. Strange

 

[C'mon you Shrimpers]

this is a disaster for Labour. Picking an unrecontructed left wing fascist (and having worked in London Boroughs in the past there are a lot of them about) who stupidly has gone in print about wishing Thatcher had been killed in the Brighton bombing and we had lost the Falklands was gross incompetence but just shows what we'd get if these clowns were ever voted back in.
An unbelievable result for UKIP.
Personally I now spoil my ballot paper and write what I think about the candidates on it. It makes me feel better and is as effective in my view than a protest vote.

 

[MK Shrimper]

Hmmm filter seems to think **** (tlem. The word backwards) is a swear word. Strange

Tis odd indeed.

 

[Crabby Shrimper]

Hmmm filter seems to think **** (tlem. The word backwards) is a swear word. Strange

I seem to recall Barna having a hissy because someone kept calling him a (tlem). Think it got filtered because of that

 

[MK Shrimper]

http://audioboo.fm/boos/1240559-con...er-of-people-who-are-resigning-from-the-party

Interesting interview by Tory MP Eleanor Laing who says that die-hard Tory's are deserting the party.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

By-elections never have any long-term impact so it is a dangerous game to read too much into them. However...

There is clearly huge disenchantment with the three main parties. UKIP has now become the protest party that the Lib Dems used to be. The Lib Dems may not get wiped out at the next election as everyone thinks. They clearly aren't going to gain any seats and they may lose a few to Labour but they can clearly defend seats effectively.

For Labour it is difficult to see where they are going to pick up enough seats to win a majority. They are nowhere in the south of England (except parts of London) and there are few realistic seats to gain from the Tories.

For the Tories, the same applies as to Labour. I can't see how they will win a majority. They are fighting for perhaps 30 seats at most, mainly with the Lib Dems, and I don't see how they will win them. With UKIP the main protest party they will surely lose some seats where their vote is split.

It is hard to see how we end up with anything other than another hung parliament, though probably with Labour as the largest party.

Not often we see eye to eye on politics but I find myself pretty much in agreement with everything you say here.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

I seem to recall Barna having a hissy because someone kept calling him a (tlem). Think it got filtered because of that

A lasting tribute to Canvey Shrimper's sense of fairplay and impartiality.I must say I miss him on here.

 

[dloman]

A lasting tribute to Canvey Shrimper's sense of fairplay and impartiality.I must say I miss him on here.

To be honest at first i thought i must have some sort of typing tourettes that i didn't realise, it was only when i retyped the word tlem that i knew i was cured!

 

[GrumpyBlue]

The oppostion party in Eastleigh wasn't Labour it was the Tories.

The Labour candidate was an oddball who made an unforgivable comment about Thatcher in his book and should never have been selected in the first place.
.

John is a good guy - remember he is an Enclosure Man :thumbsup: