Goals for promotion or play-offs

[Rattus Norvegicus]

I think that a team needs around 72 goals in a season to be in the hunt for automatic promotion - that comes out as about 1 and half goals a game. That doesn't always count of course as a 1-0 win (Hartlepool and Burton) still pockets the 3 points on offer just as much as a 3-0 win (Mansfield).

After 16 games (and a third into the season) we have scored 20: 10 at home and 10 away. (In fact our home and away form is almost identical - that's odd isn't it?) If we carry on at the same rate then the final tally will be 57 or 58 goals.

I don't think it is a matter of concern - after all it is just statistics and individual circumstances change each season. I wonder if fewer goals might be required this season as there does not seem to be teams able to grab the league "by the scuff of the neck".

Certainly the midfield scoring each week is taking away the risk of having a top scorer getting injured. And there also doesn't seem to be players in the division this year scoring every week as Pope and Britt were doing last season.

Interesting times.

 

[Pak Power]

Straker will get 20-no worries . You heard it here first!:winking:

 

[Somerset Ex-TTB]

Depends on the defense too. We have a good one, so will probably not need as many goals to get the number of points. We have looked more free scoring as the season has gone on as well.

 

[chapperzUK]

Scoring goals won't be the thing that gets us promoted, staying solid at the back will. Gillingham only scored 67 last season but also only conceded 39. We have scored 20 and only conceded 14 from 16 games, and we are on our way to achieving 58 scored and 40 conceded.

 

[Cockle43]

Lots of goals are great, however, what gets you points are miserly defences that keep clean sheets and get you a point on the occasions you can't score, with very few exceptions there are always good teams that have a day when they can't get a goal....

Therefore the stat that I take comfort from this season is that we have now kept, IIRC, ten clean sheets; now, if we can get 30 clean sheets in a season that is a guaranteed 30 points, ten goals in those games to give you ten 1-0 wins gets you the 'magic' 50 points to stay up.
Equally, keep 30 clean sheets and score 30 goals, one in each game, and that will give you 90 points....... Championship territory, theoretically 30 goals could get you the championship, just got to get them in the right games.

Leagues and promotions are sometimes won on pretty football but they are more often won off the back of a solid defence with percentage football, a la Paul Sturrock.
It's unfashionable to say so but you go places with a solid defence. At the moment we are seeing pretty football and that is getting the attention and that is great and nice to watch but, make no mistake, in this League, no one gets up without a decent defence and that is what excites me about this season so far, we have the makings of a really miserly defence and a midfield that is getting goals along with the strikers....

Keep it going and this could get really interesting....... Remember, this is SUFC, we don't do boring. :winking:

 

[Rattus Norvegicus]

Absolutely agree Cockle43 - start with keeping a clean sheet and build from that. 1 nil wins can be a little tricky - it only takes a deflected shot, a tired tackle or a poor decision (as at Bury) and suddenly it is a 1 all draw.

 

[Shrimper2thecore]

If we keep keeping clean sheets, then we only need 1 goal a game.

 

[maninasuitcase]

With the league seemingly very tight this year, a poor goal difference may mean the difference between missing out on the play-offs, or automatic promotion. I would hope that where when we can establish a early lead we don't sit back for the win but attempt to improve our GD.

Our GD is currently best of the teams on 26 points but we are three goals or more behind three of the four teams on 29 points.

 

[londonblue]

For automatic promotion you really need to be averaging 2 points a game. How many goals you score to get there is largely irrelevant.

Interestingly, it is a sign of how tight our division is that it is the only one where no-one is managing that. Each of the Prem, Championship and League 1 have 3 teams averaging at least 2 points a game.

 

[Yorkshire Blue]

I'm far less concerned about our goalscoring record now Timlin has been restored to midfield.

The problem was mainly one of creativity IMO and Timlin adds a different dimension to our passing.

 

[Rattus Norvegicus]

Another reason in our favour at the moment is the options we have available.

If we play 1 upfront we can choose between Corr and Woodrow and then there is Fred due back soon. And in addition Seedy was on the bench at Exeter.

In midfield we have Laird and Payne - and we can change our shape as well.

In defence we also have options. Thompson and Phillips.

Thank goodness the run of injuries we had in the first few games has partly tailed off ....... and we are not picking up that many yellow or red cards. This all helps.

 

[Massimo Giovanni]

I think Dan Bentley is the more likely reason for the fewer goals than any defensive performances, the full backs are sound but the middle/heart two pairings are not standing out as "must" players for every game in the same way as the GK and full backs. Up front while it is great that others are contributing to the goals I would like to see a settled and scoring forward from the 3 main strikers we are likely to be using. Consistency is the way to get promoted.

 

[Bearded Shrimper]

I like that we're playing players in the front 3 who are actually comfortable there, makes a big difference.

I think a solid defence will get us where we want to go. numbers of goals for/against are irrelevent. If we have a solid defence we can afford to be low scorers and I'd happily ride that wave to promotion