Odds on Blues drawing Southend Manor in FA Cup?

[greyerfox]

Has it been mentioned on here that Manor have reached the final qualifying round of the FA Cup and play Kettering away on 29 Oct? With their most impressive results in the FA Cup thus far it is not beyond the bounds of possibilty that we could be in the hat with them in the draw for the first round proper.

 

[silentshrimper]

Yeh it was mentioned on another part of the forum somewhere. Unfortunately Kettering away is a big big ask for them, think there is a 4 tier difference. Depends what strength squad Kettering put out I guess.

Hope they get through though that would be amazing!

 

[wally4pm]

I'd welcome a tie against them so that we can wallop them and progress into the next round. Anybody who thinks they can hold a candle to us is sadly dellusioned. I rather think Kettering may be a step too far for them.

 

[Shrimper]

Damnit. Was hoping that they would play at home as if they were I was going to go and watch them. I'd like them to get through, but I can't see it. Would be pretty epic if Southend played Southend Manor at Southchurch Park. Thing is, this is still a major achievement for them and they've no doubt done their finances well in the last few weeks.

I wouldn't write them off against Kettering though, they played Leighton Town who are a league above them, wish them luck!

 

[Lord Football]

The odds, well there are 80 sides in the first round proper. It is no longer based on a north / south basis, so the odds of us getting any particular side are 79-1.

There are I believe 64 sides left in the 4th Qualifying Round, so you need to include the 32 that will get knocked out so that ups the odds to 111-1, which will drop to 79-1 once the Qualifying Round is played.

Then you need to factor in the chances of Manor actually turning over Kettering, which are say 16-1 and at this point I need a maths degree, which I don't have.

 

[southendkid]

The odds, well there are 80 sides in the first round proper. It is no longer based on a north / south basis, so the odds of us getting any particular side are 79-1. There are I believe 64 sides left in the 4th Qualifying Round, so you need to include the 32 that will get knocked out so that ups the odds to 111-1, which will drop to 79-1 once the Qualifying Round is played. Then you need to factor in the chances of Manor actually turning over Kettering, which are say 16-1 and at this point I need a maths degree, which I don't have.

Surely if you assume the odds of manor winning are 16-1 then the odds of playing them is a 1 in (16 * 79) chance? Off the top of my head that's about 1250-1. So basically don't get your hopes up.

 

[BrettieAngell]

slim to none I reckon, they've done really well to get this far would be an amazing achievement if they made it through to the 1st round.

 

[Skyblue]

What type of crouds have they been getting? Is this where our missing 4,000 have gone for their footy fix!

 

[DCC]

Erm, no. They got 309 for the cup win over Leighton, which was their highest crowd of the season by a long way. Their crowd for the first league game of the season was just 10...

http://www.southendmanor.co.uk/resfix.aspx

 

[discord]

would be interesting match considering some blues fans have played for manor inc me :smile:

 

[SUFCNATHAN96]

My coaches son plays for Manor and he told me that so far they have made £15,000.

 

[The Big Shrimp]

£17250.00 to be exact!