Relegation and Promotion Issues

[Rattus Norvegicus]

The 5 teams below us in the league are all at home tonight - and we are of course away at Bradford. And the 3 teams above us are also at home.

On paper, Chesterfield and Coventry have the easier teams to play but we shall see .............

 

[Barry.C]

I parted company with a few bob on Bradford and Sheff Utd before the season started, along of course with my usual heart felt Southend bet,

 

[Rattus Norvegicus]

So here we are - almost 40% of the way through the season.

Bury have parted company with Flitcroft and are letting in goals for fun.

Oldham are under a transfer embargo - whether that matters at the moment I'm not sure but it can't help very much when you are 3rd from bottom.

Shrewsbury and Chesterfield are not picking up the points they require.


At the top Scunthorpe are picking up points regularly (they scored 4 against us) and managed a 1-0 win against 10 man Oldham on Saturday with an 80th minute goal - the sort of game you need to win to keep yourself up at the top. I don't think they have yet had a bad spell.

Not much surprise to see Bolton up there - and Sheffield United have improved tremendously since they lost to us!

Bradford were doing well until the weekend but I think that is only a minor blip and expect to see them in the play-offs.

Otherwise any team putting a good run together could find themselves in the play-off positions come Christmas.


Any views?

 

[Supernaut]

So here we are - almost 40% of the way through the season.

Bury have parted company with Flitcroft and are letting in goals for fun.

Oldham are under a transfer embargo - whether that matters at the moment I'm not sure but it can't help very much when you are 3rd from bottom.

Shrewsbury and Chesterfield are not picking up the points they require.


At the top Scunthorpe are picking up points regularly (they scored 4 against us) and managed a 1-0 win against 10 man Oldham on Saturday with an 80th minute goal - the sort of game you need to win to keep yourself up at the top. I don't think they have yet had a bad spell.

Not much surprise to see Bolton up there - and Sheffield United have improved tremendously since they lost to us!

Bradford were doing well until the weekend but I think that is only a minor blip and expect to see them in the play-offs.

Otherwise any team putting a good run together could find themselves in the play-off positions come Christmas.


Any views?

It's ridiculously tight, as always. Given our historical good form in November it was perhaps always likely that we'd put together a decent run and improve our league standing by this time. I expect us to hover around our current position for the rest of the season, with a blip in April, finishing up around 10th. Unless we do some incredible business in the next transfer window, in which case we might sneak the play-offs. A lot depends on keeping our key players fit of course.

 

[MK Shrimper]

Championship here we come :smile:

 

[Benfleet A1]

The play offs would make me a very happy bunny.

 

[Rattus Norvegicus]

If we do stay in this league we could be joined by Plymouth and Carlisle (long distances) not to mention Rotherham, Blackburn and Wigan .............

 

[Bearded Shrimper]

I'd be happy to improve on last season. Play offs would be great, but anything above last season would do great

 

[mattitouk]

I'd be happy to improve on last season. Play offs would be great, but anything above last season would do great

Exactly this!

for me, as long as we finish one place higher this season than last season, and one place higher each year as I consider it progress & moving in the right direction......Year after year.

I would rather have another few years in league one improving year on year, before eventually achieving promotion to the Championship, as apose to getting to the Championship this year and being ludicrously out of budget and end up having back to back relegations, and end up back in the basement league with even more debt!.... ring any bells?

Lessons may have been learned from our last experience.. But knowing our club & history, and stadium etc... I doubt it!

 

[Rattus Norvegicus]

Exactly this!

for me, as long as we finish one place higher this season than last season, and one place higher each year as I consider it progress & moving in the right direction......Year after year.

I would still like us to be in or around the play-offs come the end of the season - it will add more people to the gates and that in turn will help the club finance the players we need.

We are 9 points away from the relegation zone and only 1 from the play-offs - very tight but the top 4 teams have a little gap on everyone else.

Any one else wondering if the Scunthorpe manager might be a target for other clubs if he continues with this performance?

 

[Bromley Blue]

Exactly this!

for me, as long as we finish one place higher this season than last season, and one place higher each year as I consider it progress & moving in the right direction......Year after year.

I would rather have another few years in league one improving year on year, before eventually achieving promotion to the Championship, as apose to getting to the Championship this year and being ludicrously out of budget and end up having back to back relegations, and end up back in the basement league with even more debt!.... ring any bells?

Lessons may have been learned from our last experience.. But knowing our club & history, and stadium etc... I doubt it!

I agree with the sentiment of this. We should be looking to improve the squad and league position year on year. And if you have sneak into the playoffs late in the season and go up you could very well get murdered in the Championship the following year.

But football isn't that black and white and to be honest, if it were then it wouldn't be so popular. If we improved one league position year on year then after a couple of years our better players would get poached as they'd get frustrated at a lack of promotion and we'd have to build again. There would then be no guarantees that the players we bring in as replacements would be of the same quality, as signings at our level tend to be a bit hit and miss.

I think clubs like Bournemouth have proven that sometimes you can get promoted to a league above your station and if you've got a decent manager and a few talented players you can survive for a few years. I'd argue that clubs like Brentford and Rotherham have overachieved in the Championship in recent seasons too given their size.

Sometimes you just have to go up and see how you get on.

 

[Rattus Norvegicus]

Sometimes you just have to go up and see how you get on.

:thumbsup: This above - I would rather give it a really good go and get relegated than not get promoted at all.


Which again brings me back to Scunthorpe with crowds of 4,000 odd. How would they survive in the division above if we couldn't with crowds that would be about 10,000 odd?

 

[Kevin Hogg]

:thumbsup: This above - I would rather give it a really good go and get relegated than not get promoted at all.


Which again brings me back to Scunthorpe with crowds of 4,000 odd. How would they survive in the division above if we couldn't with crowds that would be about 10,000 odd?

They have survived before. Wimbledon survived in the top division with a core support of around 6000 plus away fans. Bournemouth anyone??

 

[rigsby]

They have survived before. Wimbledon survived in the top division with a core support of around 6000 plus away fans. Bournemouth anyone??

Russian owners anyone?

Look what happened to Wimbledon....Someone stole the whole club.

 

[Bromley Blue]

Yes Bournemouth have had money pumped into them and they've been able to afford players we (and previously they) could only dream of signing. But I only really think that helped at League One level. Once they were in the Championship there were/are a lot of clubs with big budgets either chasing the Premiership dream or benefitting from parachute payments from being there previously. What Bournemouth have achieved is still remarkable despite the considerable investment into their club.

 

[Napster]

Performing above bookie's expectations recently

https://cchappas.shinyapps.io/TeamPerformance/

 

[Napster]

and our form is very good

https://experimental361.com/2016/11/30/experiment-form-tables/

 

[Rattus Norvegicus]

Well, it's changing at the bottom and top of the division .............

Scunthorpe have 1 point from the last 9 (partly due to us :smile:) and will drop out of the top 2 if Bolton win their game in hand. That would leave Sheffield Utd and Bolton in the promotion slots - something that many would have predicted at the start of the season.


However, I am not sure that many would have predicted that Coventry would be bottom of the table and require 11 points to get out of the relegation zone. That seems rather difficult but there are still 45 points for them to play for ...... and of course we have to go there in a month's time (14th March).

Swindon and Port Vale are dropping fast - whilst full credit to Shrewsbury and Oldham who have picked up points of late. Swindon have lost their last 5 games whilst it is 6 games since Port Vale won.

 

[onceknownasrab]

I think we are better placed than many small clubs to survive a promotion to the Championship. We have already had a couple of stabs at it. I am sure that somewhere in the previous experiences we have learned something. Geographically we are fortunate and it may well be easier to get the necessary, better players, to join up at that level.

We could wait until FF is built to go up. The extra capacity would be a benefit but that may mean stifling ambition for an indeterminate time. When you are on the crest of a wave you either ride it or you sink.

 

[Polish_Blues]

With PB and his massive contract in the games, we will have a better fist at The Championship than in 2006/07 under Tilson.