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Relegation and Promotion Issues

Forums New posts
Some interesting games above us, tomorrow :-

Bradford City v. Bolton Wanderers
Sheffield United v. Scunthorpe United

Also, Rochdale are at home to in-form Charlton Athletic and Millwall are otherwise engaged in the FA Cup, so a win for us and we could leap to 5th! :cool:
 
AndyT said:
Just for nostalgia's sake, this is the table after we lost at Rochdale :-

http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/league-one/2016-2017/table/2016-10-08

Apart from us and a small handful of other clubs, positions haven't changed dramatically for most.
Click to expand...

interesting website that, some incredible data

If you look at today's table -v- same date last season we were in 7th on 47 points (v today 6th on 49)

http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/league-one/2016-2017/table

http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/league-one/2015-2016/table/2016-02-16

Looking at the last season and the previous 4 seasons 74 points is sufficient to get inside the playoffs, which is surely within out sights.

http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/league-one/2015-2016/table

Looking at the tables of last season (this time last years -v- end of season) it really shows how important the final 15 games are as Gillingham were in 2nd on 58pts and Barnsley at that time were on 42 in 13th, and we know who went up and also Barnsley seem to be holding their own in the Champ.


We can do this ! :smile:
 
The last time 6th place had more than 74 points was in 2009/10, our relegation season. Huddersfield finished 6th with 80 points. That said, Southampton in 7th finished on 73, so from Huddersfield's perspective 74 would have been enough.

http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/league-one/2009-2010/table

At this point in that season, 6th placed Huddersfield were already on 54 points, 5 more than us and 4 more than 6th placed Millwall, so they only gained 26 points from the remaining 15 games, very similar to the 25 points we'd need to get to 74.

http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/league-one/2009-2010/table/2010-02-20

It does seem that 74 is a good target to aim for, although there's always the odd season that can mess that up.

Interestingly in the 2009/10 season, Millwall were just outside the playoffs, 11 behind 2nd placed Leeds but rocketed up in the last 15 games, taking 33 points and being just 1 point and 2 goals away from snatching 2nd place from Leeds. Didn't matter though, Millwall's form led them to win the playoffs.

----------------

For us to reach that 74 points mark, getting 25 points over 15 games could look something like this:

7W 4D 4L or 8W 1D 6L.

We're effectively aiming for 8 wins from 15 games, or 7 wins with only 4 losses along the way. Good to keep in mind that it shouldn't be doom and gloom if we lose a couple along the way.
 
fredheim_holm said:
The last time 6th place had more than 74 points was in 2009/10, our relegation season. Huddersfield finished 6th with 80 points. That said, Southampton in 7th finished on 73, so from Huddersfield's perspective 74 would have been enough.

http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/league-one/2009-2010/table

At this point in that season, 6th placed Huddersfield were already on 54 points, 5 more than us and 4 more than 6th placed Millwall, so they only gained 26 points from the remaining 15 games, very similar to the 25 points we'd need to get to 74.

http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/league-one/2009-2010/table/2010-02-20

It does seem that 74 is a good target to aim for, although there's always the odd season that can mess that up.

Interestingly in the 2009/10 season, Millwall were just outside the playoffs, 11 behind 2nd placed Leeds but rocketed up in the last 15 games, taking 33 points and being just 1 point and 2 goals away from snatching 2nd place from Leeds. Didn't matter though, Millwall's form led them to win the playoffs.

----------------

For us to reach that 74 points mark, getting 25 points over 15 games could look something like this:

7W 4D 4L or 8W 1D 6L.

We're effectively aiming for 8 wins from 15 games, or 7 wins with only 4 losses along the way. Good to keep in mind that it shouldn't be doom and gloom if we lose a couple along the way.
Click to expand...

Current form 28 points in the last 15
 
I don't want to jinx anything, but 7W 4D 4L should be massively achievable given the run we're on/opponents we have left to play.
 
We have picked 37 from 19 since that Rochdale game, almost 2 points a game. Also as Firestorm said before 28 from 15 which is again almost 2 points a game.

Given the fixture list, I would not be at all surprised to continue that sort of form and pick up something close to 2 points a game from now until the end of the season.

I might have said that last year as well though :winking:
 
Sorry to be go against the optimism but 25 points from 15 sounds rather tricky to me - but I haven't been through each of the fixtures to form a "calculated viewpoint".

To get 25 points suggests to me that we would not have a "difficult period" between now and the end of the season ....... and yet that is just what many teams do have.

Sorry ............. but it has to be said ........
 
Last edited:
Rattus Norvegicus said:
Sorry to be go against the optimism but 25 points from 15 sounds rather tricky to me - but I haven't been through each of the fixtures to from a "calculated viewpoint".

To get 25 points suggests to me that we would not have a "difficult period" between now and the end of the season ....... and yet that is just what many teams do have.

Sorry ............. but it has to be said ........
Click to expand...

we got our difficult period out the way early
 
Let's beat Northampton and take the next game after that , eyes that wander too far in front take their eyes off the most important game, which is always the next one.
 
Have a guess who is top of the form table over the last six matches?

Guarantee you won't get it first time!
 
Is it Shrewsbury? They've had a good run of results recently. Or is it Oxford after all....?
 
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