Chris Powell's mate
First XI⭐
- Joined
- Aug 14, 2010
- Messages
- 5,635
Nice analysis. There's not much to disagree with. Assuming we get to 55 points, you'd be unlucky to go down with that total.I see a lot saying we are in a relegation battle. Sitting in 14th and 6 points above the drop zone and 18th in the form table doesn't sound great but not terrible.
In the last 14 seasons, 51 points has been enough to avoid relegation. Gillingham in 21st place, going at their current point per game rate, would finish on 49 points (rounded up).
Currently on 39 points, we would need 12 points from the last 14 games to stay up. Looking at the remaining games, there are key games.
Given our results against the top 8 have been poor, we can probably discard them and say any points will be bonuses, taking out 5 games.
While our home form has been poor (17th in the league), 4 of the final 7 home games are against teams who are 18th, 19th, 21st and 24th in the away league table ("typical Southend, we will lose to them" comments predicted). The other 3 are against the top end with Portsmouth having the best away record, Barnsley and Sunderland with the joint 3rd best.
That leaves us with 5 games left, all away to teams in mid-table to lower-mid table. Fleetwood are the only team with a half decent home record, so putting them down as a defeat. Our away record has been good (10th in the league), which could be the difference.
The next 4 games will not decide if we are going down or not, 3 points from those games would be good (basically beating Accrington). The 4 games after, especially Scunthorpe, Wimbledon and Shrewsbury, could decide our fate this season. Should be aiming for at least 7 points from those games.
Remaining Games
Portsmouth (H) - 3rd in league
Accrington (A) - 16th in league
Barnsley (H) - 2nd in league
Blackpool (A) - 8th in league
Scunthorpe (A) - 13th in league
Wimbledon (H) - 24th in league
Peterborough (A) - 7th in league
Shrewsbury (H) - 22nd in league
Fleetwood (A) - 9th in league
Wycombe (H) - 10th in league
Walsall (A) - 17th in league
Burton (H) - 12th in league
Rochdale (A) - 18th in league
Sunderland (H) - 4th in league