This team has no belief

[Chris Powell's mate]

I see a lot saying we are in a relegation battle. Sitting in 14th and 6 points above the drop zone and 18th in the form table doesn't sound great but not terrible.

In the last 14 seasons, 51 points has been enough to avoid relegation. Gillingham in 21st place, going at their current point per game rate, would finish on 49 points (rounded up).

Currently on 39 points, we would need 12 points from the last 14 games to stay up. Looking at the remaining games, there are key games.

Given our results against the top 8 have been poor, we can probably discard them and say any points will be bonuses, taking out 5 games.

While our home form has been poor (17th in the league), 4 of the final 7 home games are against teams who are 18th, 19th, 21st and 24th in the away league table ("typical Southend, we will lose to them" comments predicted). The other 3 are against the top end with Portsmouth having the best away record, Barnsley and Sunderland with the joint 3rd best.

That leaves us with 5 games left, all away to teams in mid-table to lower-mid table. Fleetwood are the only team with a half decent home record, so putting them down as a defeat. Our away record has been good (10th in the league), which could be the difference.

The next 4 games will not decide if we are going down or not, 3 points from those games would be good (basically beating Accrington). The 4 games after, especially Scunthorpe, Wimbledon and Shrewsbury, could decide our fate this season. Should be aiming for at least 7 points from those games.

Remaining Games
Portsmouth (H) - 3rd in league
Accrington (A) - 16th in league
Barnsley (H) - 2nd in league
Blackpool (A) - 8th in league
Scunthorpe (A) - 13th in league
Wimbledon (H) - 24th in league
Peterborough (A) - 7th in league
Shrewsbury (H) - 22nd in league
Fleetwood (A) - 9th in league
Wycombe (H) - 10th in league
Walsall (A) - 17th in league
Burton (H) - 12th in league
Rochdale (A) - 18th in league
Sunderland (H) - 4th in league

Nice analysis. There's not much to disagree with. Assuming we get to 55 points, you'd be unlucky to go down with that total.

 

[Chris Powell's mate]

This team isn't very good, whether it has any belief or not is a moot point.
Every Southend side of any consequence had at least one top player at this level: Bentley, Freddy, Britt Assombalonga, when on loan, Powell himself, Stan, Royce, Derek Spence; Billy Best etc - there's no one vaguely in that ball park as it stands. Please don't tell me about potential; it's the here-and-now we should be worried about.
Players frankly not up to it; others learning; the rest injured. On a good day, Simon Cox is one to retain from the seniors; the rest are going to take us down unless six of seven other sides below or around us do even worse.

 

[Mr Browns Ghost]

the

Nice analysis. There's not much to disagree with. Assuming we get to 55 points, you'd be unlucky to go down with that total.

trouble we have, is we are not playing like a team who believe we could get relegated, we are playing like a bunch of free loaders going through the motions in nothing games. for the last 8-9 games we have been getting decisively worse, We battled for an hour at charlton, and that is the level at least we should be aspiring to every game, it doesn't matter if we are not good enough, as long as we can get 11 players on that pitch and we Beg Steal and borrow until the very final seconds we will have a chance. The trouble is we have a management team and a group of players who are happy to feel hard done by and are happy to have a huge injury list to hide behind, it almost feels abit like the end of Steve Tilsons rayne... rabbits in the head lights just awaiting the inevitable... I genuinely feel (and I would love to be proved wrong) that the Chris Powel journey will end mid next year, (if it lasts that long) I simple seen enough, from the pre season, to not knowing who your captain was... these are my concerns, and like I say i would gladly be proved wrong, but I fear for him and this team over the next 12-18 months

 

[Chris Powell's mate]

the

trouble we have, is we are not playing like a team who believe we could get relegated, we are playing like a bunch of free loaders going through the motions in nothing games. for the last 8-9 games we have been getting decisively worse, We battled for an hour at , and that is the level at least we should be aspiring to every game, it doesn't matter if we are not good enough, as long as we can get 11 players on that pitch and we Beg Steal and borrow until the very final seconds we will have a chance. The trouble is we have a management team and a group of players who are happy to feel hard done by and are happy to have a huge injury list to hide behind, it almost feels abit like the end of Steve Tilsons rayne... rabbits in the head lights just awaiting the inevitable... I genuinely feel (and I would love to be proved wrong) that the Chris Powel journey will end mid next year, (if it lasts that long) I simple seen enough, from the pre season, to not knowing who your captain was... these are my concerns, and like I say i would gladly be proved wrong, but I fear for him and this team over the next 12-18 months

Not buying part of that: 'the trouble is we have a management team and a group of players who are happy to feel hard done by and are happy to have a huge injury list to hide behind.' How do you hide behind a huge injury list? You're suggesting they pretend it isn't there.
And as a result, they ARE hard done by.
You can't miracle a winning team out of these circumstances: it's like knitting with fog!

 

[RobM]

"The problem lies in midfield, can't pass, can't tackle, lose possession too easily, no wonder the centre backs hoof it long, they know the midfield will lose it anyway."

And that, ladies and gentlemen, sums it up.

 

[Mr Browns Ghost]

Not buying part of that: 'the trouble is we have a management team and a group of players who are happy to feel hard done by and are happy to have a huge injury list to hide behind.' How do you hide behind a huge injury list? You're suggesting they pretend it isn't there.
And as a result, they ARE hard done by.
You can't miracle a winning team out of these circumstances: it's like knitting with fog!

you don't have to by into anything I say Mr Powells Friend, my views... not necessarily yours

 

[Weston's left foot]

Yeah can’t wait for it to finish ,first time in twenty odd years I’ve not been going,last game was New Year’s Day

so you were going during the Alvin Martin era then? because that was much worse than now.

 

[marlow17101032]

so you were going during the Alvin Martin era then? because that was much worse than now.

Yes I was but I was a lot younger then I now rather work weekends and earn money than come home every Saturday with the raging hump and taking it out on the people close to me

 

[superblue24]

I'd say relegation is looking nailed on at this point. Not sure if Powell will survive us getting too close to the red line. The league table flatters us at this point and we're a couple of games from being very close to the bottom 4.