We are now favourites to go up .....in my opinion.

[andykn]

I'm no mathematician, but with a bit of women's logic...

We need to win, and Creepy and Torquay both need to draw or lose. As there are 3 teams who could go up and one auto spot left, its a 1 in 3 chance of going up! Simples.

We don't need to win, if Creepy and Torquay both lose, a draw will do.

 

[Jam_Man]

£16k actually. :winking:

Not if they put in £1000 each.

 

[Uncle Leo]

I have just asked our football department to price up promotion on Saturday. Odds (and percentages) detailed below.

Crawley 8/15 (65%)
Torquay 3/1 (25%)
Southend 7/2 (22.22%)

http://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/football/english/league-two-2011/12-e215058500-m223273262

 

[Jam_Man]

I have just asked our football department to price up promotion on Saturday. Odds (and percentages) detailed below.

Crawley 8/15 (65%)
Torquay 3/1 (25%)
Southend 7/2 (22.22%)

http://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/football/english/league-two-2011/12-e215058500-m223273262

So we arent favourites and we arent 12/1 then.

Phew.

I still think Crawley are over estimated.

 

[Beefy]

Those seem about right. We've a very decent chance of promotion but Crawley are clear favourites.

We'll go up though.

 

[londonblue]

I have just asked our football department to price up promotion on Saturday. Odds (and percentages) detailed below.

Crawley 8/15 (65%)
Torquay 3/1 (25%)
Southend 7/2 (22.22%)

Not wishing to confuse matters further, but given that one of these has to happen, how come they don't add up to 100%?

 

[andykn]

It's called the "overround" and represents the bookies profit margin.

 

[Upminster Blue]

Not wishing to confuse matters further, but given that one of these has to happen, how come they don't add up to 100%?

Because of Ladbrokes' profit margin. And without wanting to re-open the debate, means that our true chances of promotion are less than 22.22% :smile:

 

[londonblue]

Because of Ladbrokes' profit margin. And without wanting to re-open the debate, means that our true chances of promotion are less than 22.22%

That makes sense. You're therefore correct that our chances of automatic are therefore less than 22.22%. However, this still means my original post is correct: that as unlikely as this outcome is, we have to make sure we're in a position to take advantage should Crawley and Torquay fail. I said that with three games to go where the odds were probably longer than they aren now...

 

[Jam_Man]

Because of Ladbrokes' profit margin. And without wanting to re-open the debate, means that our true chances of promotion are less than 22.22% :smile:

Somewhat highter than 8% though eh ? :smile:

 

[Uncle Leo]

It's called the "overround" and represents the bookies profit margin.

Yeah, I did ask if they could give me the prices without the overround, but they looked at me like I was from Mars.

 

[andykn]

When I used the best prices from the odds comparison website for all the 27 scenarios I added up the totals and came to very close to 100% for each set of scenarios so I'm reasonably confident that 19% represents the average of the bookies'/market's views.

 

[TTS]

Long thread - lets just win and see what else happens after that !

 

[Napster]

I would say we have 2 chances, slim and fat.

 

[BLUEBLOOD]

Because of Ladbrokes' profit margin. And without wanting to re-open the debate, means that our true chances of promotion are less than 22.22% :smile:

And probably around the 18-19% figure that andykn and i came up with

:angel:

 

[Fish]

Well, I've got Southend to get promoted at 7-1.

But that was back in August....

 

[Upminster Blue]

And probably around the 18-19% figure that andykn and i came up with

:angel:

If you want to be smart about it, depends which bookies odds you use. If Ladrokes are quoting ungenerous odds on Crawley and/or Torquay to win or be promoted it will by definition inflate our odds.

All I was saying is that based on the odds quoted on page 1 of the thread of 2/1 for us to be promoted implies our chances of promotion this Saturday as being around 1 in 12. That is unequivocal if you work through the maths based on the 2/1 price. Whether 2/1 is a fair price is another matter and, of course, opinions will differ.

Anway, lets see what happens on Saturday, that's the main thing :thumbsup:

 

[Jam_Man]

Still dont understand that 1 in 12 , the chances of going up on Saturday are 18-19% which is realistic.

8% chance is way out.

 

[londonblue]

Looks like someone on a Torquay board has done the same maths:

http://torquayfansforum.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=9193&page=9

Bottom of the page...

 

[Razam]

Looks like someone on a Torquay board has done the same maths:

http://torquayfansforum.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=9193&page=9

Bottom of the page...

So basically the Torquay guy has said the chances of getting the autos are:

Creepy = 14/27 = 51.85%
Torquay = 8/27 = 29.63%
Southend = 5/27 = 18.52%