[b said:
Quote[/b] (sufcintheprem @ Oct. 19 2005,18:09)]But sir!
Surely the land at Roots Hall is right next to the CBD and as a result much more valuable than Fossett's Farm which, in Southend terms, is out in the sticks?
Alas, so far as I know on the urban development plan the Roots Hall site is earmarked as an area that can only be redeveloped for residential purposes only.
As a result, the value of the land on which Roots Hall sits is comparatively small compared to the potential retail development value (and thus, crucially, the potential income streams) of Fossetts Farm.
[b said:
Quote[/b] (sufcintheprem @ Oct. 19 2005,18:09)]Also, sir, if you extend your model then you have to assume that the situation has reached a stalemate and then you will reach the model that I was creating. In a stalemate, RM is happy enough because the club is becoming more profitable at RH but he wouldn't mind the stadium. Fans are happy enough cos they have a club. Delancey must surely be sitting there wondering why they have invested in something that will probably start losing money soon.
RM is not happy enough. Fundamentally, he is (so far as I know) the minority partner in a company to which SUFC is a massive creditor - to the tune of several millions (we don't know how much exactly, but my guess is that the value of the debt alone must be in the region of £4m).
SUFC as an entity does not (alas) have a pot to p*ss in. Right now, SUFC's chief financial assets are probably Freddy Eastwood & Mitch Cole... for whom, in a "fire sale" situation, you might make 600K tops.
The only thing that Delancey really wants is money. Ideally, it wants the Fossetts Farm site... although I am somewhat unclear as to precisely how they get their hands on it for developmental purposes. There are two major stumbling blocks for Delancey:
1. Will the council give the green light to a purely business-only redevelopment of the site?
2. Would Lansbury sell to Delancey (since, it should be noted, neither Ron nor Delancey owns the FF site)?
Then again, would Lansbury sell to Ron? Who knows. Alas, however, I agree with Naps. Ron does not hold all the aces. Fundamentally, SUFC has a huge debt - largely underwritten by Delancey alone, rather than SEL - no obvious way to pay that debt off (since it has no assets) and thus nothing to bargain with to allow the club to get its own way in relation to FF or Roots Hall.
Then again, other than the fact that it has an asset which is (at the moment) largely unrealisable - namely SUFC's debt - Delancey isn't in a great position... since it's highly unlikely that they could "go it alone" on FF, and since they don't want to develop FF in partnership with Ron.
[b said:
Quote[/b] (sufcintheprem @ Oct. 19 2005,18:09)]In my view, Ron has all the aces here and all Delancey can do is keep raising the stakes until RM folds. With the better hand, RM won't fold and Delancey, assuming they can't force Roots Hall to be knocked down without a replacement, will sit on a loss-making asset for the foreseeable future.
Basically, it's like a game of poker where both players have got absolutely crap hands - a pair of number cards each - and, whilst neither is willing to back down, neither is really sure how to take things forward.
I predict many more moons of stalemate on this one... but that's OK, since it gives the Trust time to become millionaires and to buy both Ron & Delancey out of Roots Hall, leaving the two of them to fight over FF in perpetuity...