Pubey
Guest
For stats nerds.
I decided to do a simulation of the remaining games.
My simulation is simple and limited, for now.
I use the season form of each team (probability of a win, draw or loss) to simulate the outcome of all remaining fixtures.
I then ran the simulation 10,000 times to work out a prediction of what might happen to Southend.
First place = 3.7%
2nd or 3rd place = 24.5%
Playoffs = 60.1%
Miss out completely = 11.8%
(Never in 10,000 simulations were we relegated - are we actually mathematically safe?)
Important details/assumptions:
- Each predicted result is independent of all other results - therefore doesn't account for recent form
- All teams are 'assumed equal' - The probabilities of the result are based on the home team and on their past performance across the league. It's not based on the actual match, who they're facing and if it's home and away. I might try this but it'll take a lot more time.
- When the model predicts the ranked league table, and where teams have level points, the team who are currently higher in the table are assumed to rank highest. This is probably a fair assumption and avoids having to simulate goals scored.
Enjoy!
I decided to do a simulation of the remaining games.
My simulation is simple and limited, for now.
I use the season form of each team (probability of a win, draw or loss) to simulate the outcome of all remaining fixtures.
I then ran the simulation 10,000 times to work out a prediction of what might happen to Southend.
First place = 3.7%
2nd or 3rd place = 24.5%
Playoffs = 60.1%
Miss out completely = 11.8%
(Never in 10,000 simulations were we relegated - are we actually mathematically safe?)
Important details/assumptions:
- Each predicted result is independent of all other results - therefore doesn't account for recent form
- All teams are 'assumed equal' - The probabilities of the result are based on the home team and on their past performance across the league. It's not based on the actual match, who they're facing and if it's home and away. I might try this but it'll take a lot more time.
- When the model predicts the ranked league table, and where teams have level points, the team who are currently higher in the table are assumed to rank highest. This is probably a fair assumption and avoids having to simulate goals scored.
Enjoy!
Last edited: