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Does anyone know how that compares to the odds you would have got for each of those outcomes at the beginning of the season, i.e. how accurate have the bookies been, and are we more or less likely to experience each outcome?
 
Does anyone know how that compares to the odds you would have got for each of those outcomes at the beginning of the season, i.e. how accurate have the bookies been, and are we more or less likely to experience each outcome?

This is from the Outrights 14/15 thread. We were 9th favourite to win the league, with Burton 2nd favourites.

Luton favourite on paddy power, Shrimpers looking good value 16/1

View attachment 2700
 
104i5g0.png
 
I would say we need to win seven games to be in with a chance of automatics. And one of them would need to be against Bury.
 
Amazingly there's still a 1 in 5 chance of autos. Obviously the chances have diminished, but there's still a lot to play for.

So the loss to Burton reduced our chances by around 10 percent for auto's.

Just need to win from now on and get a bit of luck around us.
 
I'm not sure why the tail in the 'before' data has changed because it should be identical to the previous graph. Probably a gremlin lurking but pretty sure today's stuff is ok. Involves a lot of manual moving of data so easy for an error to sneak in. Got big plans for next season's better version.
 
I'm not sure why the tail in the 'before' data has changed because it should be identical to the previous graph. Probably a gremlin lurking but pretty sure today's stuff is ok. Involves a lot of manual moving of data so easy for an error to sneak in. Got big plans for next season's better version.
You make a much better job of it, than I could do. So please keep up the good work ! :thumbsup:
 
Like to see the stats if we fail to get a win at Bury, cant imagine we would have any chance of top 3 unless we win that one.
 
Like to see the stats if we fail to get a win at Bury, cant imagine we would have any chance of top 3 unless we win that one.

If I fix the Bury vs Southend match as a Bury win:

First = 0.1%
2 or 3 = 5.7%
Playoffs = 80.2%
Miss playoffs = 14.1%
 
Does anyone else think that if we're in the play offs we'd be better off playing the home leg first? Get a draw at home, and go for the win away!

If that works, at least Wembley is also an away match!
 
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