Autumn budget statement - The end of the line for Cameron/Osborne?

[BrettieAngell]

An extra increase in the personal allowance which will be nearly 9,500 in April now and cancelling the 3p fuel rise in january.

 

[applelover]

Happy to take a bet with you as well, Barna. You are convinced that Labour will win but I have no idea what will happen. What odds will you give me on a Labour majority at the next election?

I'm not sure that Labour will win an overall majority, but we won't be seeing the Tories in power. Bet 365 are going Lab majority 11/8 NOC 6/4 Con majority 11/4.

I think those Tory odds will go out further with Osborne making statements like:

"It is taking time but the British economy is healing after the biggest financial crash in our lifetime,"

"It is a hard road but we are getting there. Britain is on the right track and turning back now would be a disaster."

Just after announcing that the economy shrank by 0.1% this year. What a joke and we haven't even reacghed the triple dip recession yet.

Dave needs to get rid of George and take some courageous decisions.

Tax decreases

- You've got businesses holding billions on their balance sheets that need to be given tax incentives to invest.
- You need investment in start up companies but you've got a ridiculously punitive CGT level.

Capital spending

- We need braodband, rail, housing, airports etc.

Osborne has ridiculously low interest rates to play with but can't borrow money to stimulate the economy because of the political knots he has tied himself up in. He really has truely ****** himself.

 

[shrimpled]

The 2015 'problem' for Labour is entirely of their own making. Their party is ahead in the polls (although as I have previously pointed out, no opposition party has won a majority at the next election with national poll numbers lead lower than Labour's currently is) yet their leader still trails behind Cameron when people are asked who they would prefer as the PM.

 

[Jam_Man]

The 2015 'problem' for Labour is entirely of their own making. Their party is ahead in the polls (although as I have previously pointed out, no opposition party has won a majority at the next election with national poll numbers lead lower than Labour's currently is) yet their leader still trails behind Cameron when people are asked who they would prefer as the PM.

Indeed and as said earlier I just cant see people voting Milliband in. I personally couldnt stand Cameron but when he was put against Brown he looked the lesser of two evils. Milliband might be preferable to Brown but David just stood out far more as a leader, Ed just looks like someones little brother. To have any chance of succeeding he has to make a big change in his image and how people view him.

 

[Neil_F]

I'm not sure that Labour will win an overall majority, but we won't be seeing the Tories in power. Bet 365 are going Lab majority 11/8 NOC 6/4 Con majority 11/4.

"It is taking time but the British economy is healing after the biggest financial crash in our lifetime,"

"It is a hard road but we are getting there. Britain is on the right track and turning back now would be a disaster."

Personally I don't see how two lines in the Commons is going to make any difference to the current odds or the actual result in 2015. No one watches it and even fewer people pay attention to what is said. For example, Ed Balls fluffed his "TV line" in his response and never really covered. I stopped watching after three minutes but the reaction from the media was he had a shocker. I have no idea what he said because no one reported it.

Just after announcing that the economy shrank by 0.1% this year.

He didn't. He announced the OBR forecast of a 0.1% contraction. That would mean a 0.2% contraction in Q4. One of the most annoying things about politics, and this is especially true given the government's nonsense five year plan, is that most of the arguing is about projected figures. It doesn't make a blind bit of difference because the projected figures are never correct.

Dave needs to get rid of George and take some courageous decisions.

Too late for that now.

- You've got businesses holding billions on their balance sheets that need to be given tax incentives to invest.
- You need investment in start up companies but you've got a ridiculously punitive CGT level.

I don't think incentives are the issue. The UK has a competitiveness problem, especially in manufacturing and retail. See Rajan Tata's comments today

Capital spending

- We need braodband, rail, housing, airports etc.

Osborne has ridiculously low interest rates to play with but can't borrow money to stimulate the economy because of the political knots he has tied himself up in. He really has truely ****** himself.

Everyone agrees on the need for capital spending but I don't think the cash is the problem. The difficulty is identifying those projects, getting them approved and then starting them. The planning system and the number of judicial reviews makes it incredibly difficult to get anything started. The shale gas work has the potential to unleash a wave of investment, construction and reduce energy costs but it is bound to get dragged through the courts and endless enquiries.

Who knows what may happen, and I agree with you that Osborne has voluntarily locked himself in to a five year plan. That can have serious consequences when the circumstances change, as they clearly have. However, I still think the overall fiscal and monetary directions are broadly correct (we can argue around the margins about how money is spent and how quickly) but there are very few alternatives, and even fewer credible ones.

I remain of the opinion that trend growth is now about 1%, not 2.7% as the OBR continually forecast. The next election should be a discussion of whether we want 1% growth with higher taxes to protect existing services or a more dynamic economy that grows faster but distrbutes the benefits of growth unequally. I suspect that discussion will not happen though.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

As one of the few who actually knows something about economics

I have an "A" level in Economics and a BA(Hons)in Politics.Does that count as knowing anything about Economics?

you're looking at the economic impact on the 2015 election.
The political impact is completely detached from economic reality, not least because the vast majority understand next to nothing about economics.
The significance of the Autumn Statement is that it feeds into the narrative around government's economic competence.

The significance of this Autumn budget is that GO has admitted that the Government will miss its own debt target for 2015.While the deficit target has been reduced,the books will not be balanced by 2015,as promised.
It's also been announced that the economy will have negative growth in Q4.That will very likely lead to the Government losing its Triple A credit rating in the early months of next year(as France and the US have already done).
The economic consequences of that probably won't be too great(ie the Government should still be able to borrow money cheaply).The political consequences could be disastrous.Yet another nail in the Government's coffin for economic competence, in a year when growth is certain to be low and yet more cuts will come into force.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

Personally I don't see how two lines in the Commons is going to make any difference to the current odds or the actual result in 2015. No one watches it and even fewer people pay attention to what is said. For example, Ed Balls fluffed his "TV line" in his response and never really covered. I stopped watching after three minutes but the reaction from the media was he had a shocker. I have no idea what he said because no one reported it.

I thought he did rather well.Watch out for his "not waving but drowning" line on this evening's news.

 

[Neil_F]

I don't watch the news. I'll take your word for it on his performance but the extensive opinion was he bombed. I have no judgement since I didn't see more than 3 minutes.

 

[londonblue]

Why? The Autumn Statement (for some reason held in winter this year) is pointless. Gordon Brown invented it to get on TV one extra time a year.

...and continued by GO because he wants the same no doubt!

The significance of this Autumn budget is that GO has admitted that the Government will miss its own debt target for 2015.While the deficit target has been reduced,the books will not be balanced by 2015,as promised.
It's also been announced that the economy will have negative growth in Q4.That will very likely lead to the Government losing its Triple A credit rating in the early months of next year(as France and the US have already done).The economic consequences of that probably won't be too great(ie the Government should still be able to borrow money cheaply).The political consequences could be disastrous.Yet another nail in the Government's coffin for economic competence, in a year when growth is certain to be low and yet more cuts will come into force.

Especially as that was what they were warning would happen if Labour got back in. However, this hasn't happened yet, but if it does...(to quote Arnie in Commando) "All ****ing hell is gonna break loose!"

 

[superblue24]

I have an "A" level in Economics and a BA(Hons)in Politics.Does that count as knowing anything about Economics?



The significance of this Autumn budget is that GO has admitted that the Government will miss its own debt target for 2015.While the deficit target has been reduced,the books will not be balanced by 2015,as promised.
It's also been announced that the economy will have negative growth in Q4.That will very likely lead to the Government losing its Triple A credit rating in the early months of next year(as France and the US have already done).
The economic consequences of that probably won't be too great(ie the Government should still be able to borrow money cheaply).The political consequences could be disastrous.Yet another nail in the Government's coffin for economic competence, in a year when growth is certain to be low and yet more cuts will come into force.

Awful isn't it. Was in such superb shape when Labour left wasn't it.....Uhhhhhh

Well OK, at least we can say that Labour inherited a similar mess from the Tories in 97.....Ummmm

Historically, I don't think Labour have ever left the economy in good shape.....Perhaps you should consider the possibility that Labour have put us in a hopeless position in the first place.......

 

[Cricko]

Awful isn't it. Was in such superb shape when Labour left wasn't it.....Uhhhhhh

Well OK, at least we can say that Labour inherited a similar mess from the Tories in 97.....Ummmm

Historically, I don't think Labour have ever left the economy in good shape.....Perhaps you should consider the possibility that Labour have put us in a hopeless position in the first place.......

That's rubbish. The Tories would not of not done anything different when the banks collapsed and the world recession started. Both parties are far to close IMO and constantly blame each other like children in a playground, no wonder the populous of the general vote have no faith in either these days. The facts however remain, there is no easy answer to any of this.

This country, as many other western world countries are, have far to many people to ever find jobs for all or even for the millions of Uni leavers that are stuck on the scrapheap. For most in this technological age they are a lost cause when computers and machinery replace jobs every day for the bigger companies to remain viable to their shareholders by posting bigger profits each year.. While the need to keep marching on with bigger profitable goals rather than thinking of how it actually effects the whole people of a country,nothing will change.

The world has changed in my lifetime dramatically from when we all helped each other, to the new world of, just look after number one.

 

[superblue24]

That's rubbish. The Tories would not of not done anything different when the banks collapsed and the world recession started. Both parties are far to close IMO and constantly blame each other like children in a playground, no wonder the populous of the general vote have no faith in either these days. The facts however remain, there is no easy answer to any of this.

This country, as many other western world countries are, have far to many people to ever find jobs for all or even for the millions of Uni leavers that are stuck on the scrapheap. For most in this technological age they are a lost cause when computers and machinery replace jobs every day for the bigger companies to remain viable to their shareholders by posting bigger profits each year.. While the need to keep marching on with bigger profitable goals rather than thinking of how it actually effects the whole people of a country,nothing will change.

The world has changed in my lifetime dramatically from when we all helped each other, to the new world of, just look after number one.

I'll tell you what has ruined us. This "namby pamby" country changing from being a well respected world leader to allowing immigrants in to pretty much live off my bloody wedge. Too many people having children they can't afford to have and then coming "cap in hand" to the government looking for a pay out, and getting it!!

I've never claimed ANY benefits up until my baby was born a few months back and the only reason I did this was to claim my "piece of ***" from the government. I've paid NI since I was old enough to vote and never been into hospital and I pay a ludicrous amount of tax on my earnings which I see very little return from. Happy to pay tax on public maintenance and the general sundries, but seeing my tax get given to singe mums and immigrants doesn't fly with me. Also, what on earth we pay out billions to charity for is absolutely beyond me! Charity begins at home and we should, as a country, be looking to rein in donations to other countries for a year or so and be a little wiser. You wouldn't catch me donating sizeable chunks of cash to charity if I was up to my eyeballs in debt!

Unemployment figures are massively inaccurate. Jobs are out there but people aren't willing to graft, feel the job is beneath them, filled by a foreigner, or unable to show enthusiasm in an interview.

All of the above does not apply to disabled people with whom I sympathize with unless they've brought it on themselves....(i.e. by excessive drinking, smoking, drug abuse etc)

Cut the benefits on a "case by case" basis, stop the charity for a year or so, and deport these foreign freeloaders....You'd be surprised how quickly our economy would head in the right direction.

 

[Rusty Shackleford]

You're other comments were a mixture of facts and opinion.

So Neil is other comments? I don't understand.

 

[steveo]

So Neil is other comments? I don't understand.

Just another form of left wing name calling.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

So Neil is other comments? I don't understand.

Just another form of left wing name calling.

As I pointed out to Neil(and as he gracefully accepted)ED wasn't even an MP at the time the Iraq war started.
Some of the other comments he made about EM were factually correct, others were mere opinion.Clear? :tease:

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

The world has changed in my lifetime dramatically from when we all helped each other, to the new world of, just look after number one.

Don't worry.We're all in it together.:winking:

 

[Rusty Shackleford]

As I pointed out to Neil(and as he gracefully accepted)ED wasn't even an MP at the time the Iraq war started.
Some of the other comments he made about EM were factually correct, others were mere opinion.Clear?

No not really. Surely as an English teacher you would know that 'Your' would convey this, rather than the hyphenated 'You're'. So I can't see that you would possibly make such a rudimentary mistake, especially when you are so knowledgeable about all matters, and your skills are sought from Ramallah to Rangoon.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

your skills are sought from Ramallah to Rangoon.

Never applied for (or been offered)a job in Rangoon.:finger:

 

[Rusty Shackleford]

Never applied for (or been offered)a job in Rangoon.:finger:

What about the rogue apostrophe? I expect better from someone who claims to be a master of our mother tongue.

 

[Yorkshire Blue]

I have an "A" level in Economics and a BA(Hons)in Politics.Does that count as knowing anything about Economics?

You are the poster boy for not knowing anything about economics.

That will very likely lead to the Government losing its Triple A credit rating in the early months of next year(as France and the US have already done).

Ah right, you are suggesting that Osborne has done a good job in keeping a triple A rating this long whereas our contemporaries have noticeably failed to do so.

No not really. Surely as an English teacher you would know that 'Your' would convey this, rather than the hyphenated 'You're'. So I can't see that you would possibly make such a rudimentary mistake, especially when you are so knowledgeable about all matters, and your skills are sought from Ramallah to Rangoon.

I think he's an English teacher in the sense that his nationality is English.