Autumn budget statement - The end of the line for Cameron/Osborne?

[applelover]

I think that today's statement will end any hopes that the Tories will be in government after the next election.

We do need a plan B. Unfortunately Osborne has backed himself into a corner where any sort of meaningful stimulus will be seen as a political defeat. If he's supposed to be some sort of super political strategist how has he let this happen?

We'll get more of the same today. Three more years of austerity and zero growth isn't going to win an election.

Personally I think that George and David are a couple of media obsessed muppets who lack any kind of political vision or conviction. Question is are Miliband and Balls going to do any better?

 

[Jam_Man]

I think that today's statement will end any hopes that the Tories will be in government after the next election.

We do need a plan B. Unfortunately Osborne has backed himself into a corner where any sort of meaningful stimulus will be seen as a political defeat. If he's supposed to be some sort of super political strategist how has he let this happen?

We'll get more of the same today. Three more years of austerity and zero growth isn't going to win an election.

Personally I think that George and David are a couple of media obsessed muppets who lack any kind of political vision or conviction. Question is are Miliband and Balls going to do any better?

Most people wont understand the complexities of the economy and many will just vote on whether they think Ed Miliband is a better option to Cameron.

I still cant see Ed Miliband winning an election, if they had appointed David it would have been a different story.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

Most people wont understand the complexities of the economy and many will just vote on whether they think Ed Miliband is a better option to Cameron.

I still cant see Ed Miliband winning an election, if they had appointed David it would have been a different story.

Most people can readily see if their living standards are falling or not(whether or not they understand Macro/Micro-Economics).
The myth about the Milibands is the same one propounded by the Tory press.David represented a continuation of Blairism and he was tainted by support for Iraq.Ed represents a new start and a break with New Labour.

 

[Jam_Man]

Most people can readily see if their living standards are falling or not(whether or not they understand Macro/Micro-Economics).
The myth about the Milibands is the same one propounded by the Tory press.David represented a continuation of Blairism and he was tainted by support for Iraq.Ed represents a new start and a break with New Labour.

But he is very unlikeable, and that means more to most people than whether David was a continuation of anything.

Most voters have far more simple reasons for voting for who they do. Im not into politics, they all wind me up, Ive only ever voted labour though, but I wont be voting for Ed, not because of his ideology or politics, but because he looks like a bumder. (Theres analysis you wont get in the Guardian :smile:)

As for the economy, every one knows we are in a mess, but they will also see it started with labour and will naturally ask why they would be able to sort out what they couldnt before.

 

[Neil_F]

David represented a continuation of Blairism and he was tainted by support for Iraq.Ed represents a new start and a break with New Labour.

Yes, I can see how a New Labour Cabinet member, author of the 2010 Labour manifesto, who cast a vote for the Iraq war, special advisor to Gordon Brown and man without a single policy represents a break with New Labour.

I also find it funny that so many people on the left are keen to distance themselves from the only electorally successful approach the Labour party has ever had.

 

[Neil_F]

I think that today's statement will end any hopes that the Tories will be in government after the next election.

Why? The Autumn Statement (for some reason held in winter this year) is pointless. Gordon Brown invented it to get on TV one extra time a year.

Nothing of any great substance will be announced. No one knows what will be happening in 6 months let alone 2 years. Today won't have any impact on the 2015 election at all.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

Yes, I can see how a New Labour Cabinet member, author of the 2010 Labour manifesto, who cast a vote for the Iraq war, special advisor to Gordon Brown and man without a single policy represents a break with New Labour.

Ed wasn't even in Parliament at the start of the Iraq war.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

I also find it funny that so many people on the left are keen to distance themselves from the only electorally successful approach the Labour party has ever had.

.

You're perhaps too young to remember the elections of 1964 and 1966 and the two elections held in 1974.

 

[Neil_F]

I knew I should have checked that! Point taken.

I'm glad you're not dissenting from any of the other points though...

 

[Neil_F]

.

You're perhaps too young to remember the elections of 1964 and 1966 and the two elections held in 1974.

I'm absolutely too young. I do remember that Blair is the only Labour leader to win successive elections though. It was therefore the most electorally successful government.

 

[applelover]

Why? The Autumn Statement (for some reason held in winter this year) is pointless. Gordon Brown invented it to get on TV one extra time a year.

Nothing of any great substance will be announced. No one knows what will be happening in 6 months let alone 2 years. Today won't have any impact on the 2015 election at all.

Today is the day that he will have to admit that he has failed on every target he has set himself. The media will smell blood and the discourse regarding his incompetence will grow and grow. He's going to stand at the dispatch box and tell us that austerity continue at least two years into to next parliament. Due to his own arrogance he can't change tack because his ridiculous political strategy means that this will be jumped on as a failure.

People said Obama had it all to do to get re-elected considering the state of the economy. Well we're in a much worst mess. Obama is charismaticand likeable. Even Tories accept that Osborne ans Cameron are complete @#%&*! Barring an absolute disaster for Labour there is no way they can win the next election

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

The fact is that Cameron(or another Tory pm)somehow needs to increase the Tory vote share (by something like 11%).at the 2015 election,if he is to get a Commons majority.That's clearly ot going to happen.
Incidentally,not since 1974(when there were two elections, not just one)has a sitting PM increased their party's share of the vote.Thatcher couldn't do it in 83 or 87 nor could Blair in 2001 and 2005.
For all his arrogant charm, Cameron is no Thatcher or Blair.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

I'm absolutely too young. I do remember that Blair is the only Labour leader to win successive elections though. It was therefore the most electorally successful government.

Wrong.Wilson was PM in '64 and '66.He also won the two elections held in 1974.

 

[Neil_F]

Today is the day that he will have to admit that he has failed on every target he has set himself. The media will smell blood and the discourse regarding his incompetence will grow and grow. He's going to stand at the dispatch box and tell us that austerity continue at least two years into to next parliament. Due to his own arrogance he can't change tack because his ridiculous political strategy means that this will be jumped on as a failure.

People said Obama had it all to do to get re-elected considering the state of the economy. Well we're in a much worst mess. Obama is charismaticand likeable. Even Tories accept that Osborne ans Cameron are complete @#%&*! Barring an absolute disaster for Labour there is no way they can win the next election

He'll say that the OBR projection shows he won't meet one of his targets. He shouldn't have imposed them but he hasn't failed to meet them yet.

If you are that confident of a Labour win what odds will you give me for a £100 stake on Labour having a majority at the next election? I'll take the bet. I don't necessarily think that Labour won't win but there is so much that could happen in half a Parliament.

 

[Neil_F]

Wrong.Wilson was PM in '64 and '66.He also won the two elections held in 1974.

I stand corrected.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

I knew I should have checked that! Point taken.

I'm glad you're not dissenting from any of the other points though...

Your other comments were a mixture of facts and opinion.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

If you are that confident of a Labour win what odds will you give me for a £100 stake on Labour having a majority at the next election? I'll take the bet. I don't necessarily think that Labour won't win but there is so much that could happen in half a Parliament.

(I already have a bet on the 2015 election result with Superblue 24).

You would do well to remember though that:

"While the Conservatives struggle to piece together 2/5's of the electorate,Labour's core support plus left-leaning former Lib Dems could theoretically give Ed Miliband close to 40% of the vote without needing to get out of bed."

Michael Ashcroft.Conservative peer and former deputy chairman of the Tory party.

 

[Neil_F]

Happy to take a bet with you as well, Barna. You are convinced that Labour will win but I have no idea what will happen. What odds will you give me on a Labour majority at the next election?

 

[Yorkshire Blue]

Why? The Autumn Statement (for some reason held in winter this year) is pointless. Gordon Brown invented it to get on TV one extra time a year.

Nothing of any great substance will be announced. No one knows what will be happening in 6 months let alone 2 years. Today won't have any impact on the 2015 election at all.

I would agree with most of that, but the last sentence.

As one of the few who actually knows something about economics you're looking at the economic impact on the 2015 election. The political impact is completely detached from economic reality, not least because the vast majority understand next to nothing about economics. According to a recent ITV survey just 6% understood that Osborne's plan was actually to increase national debt over the course of this Parliament.

The significance of the Autumn Statement is that it feeds into the narrative around government's economic competence. This narrative is largely driven by a media who are using it give the government a bloody nose as a threat not to curb their powers and implement Leveson.

 

[superblue24]

Who seriously would have wanted the job of straightening out the economy in 2010? Come to think of it, who wants it now or the next election? I don't think either party have done a good job if I'm honest, but if Labour come back to power, I doubt they would cut the deficit any quicker, if at all! Then what happens? All of these headlines will read the same, but will instead be blaming the Labour party.

I do know that having Miliband anywhere near No. 10 would be disastrous for the country. Tantamount to having Mr Bean or Alan Partridge running things. Maybe Labour DO have the right ideas, but they have the wrong leader. It's all very well looking at the local elections, but what Barna is still struggling to grasp is that the local Labour electorates might be likable people (or at worst the best of a bad bunch) being voted by the public but when it comes to 2015, most of these people will look at the bigger picture and realize that a vote for Labour is a vote for Miliband.....