Brexit negotiations thread

[MK Shrimper]

Dear oh dear. So for two years after we are technically out, we will still be in. We also will be paying 51 Billion minimum say the experts into the EU budget. They also said on the radio. and they understand this stuff far better than me, that it's like a football team that is losing getting half an hour extra time, but paying the maximum for the privilege. She promised us a good deal. Pathetic and disgraceful.

Just think what we could do with £51bn...anyone want to divide it by £350m to see how many weeks/years/decades we could fund the NHS.

 

[Lord Football]

It now seems that they've finally understood that leaving the EU is a massively complicated thing to do. I don't include Farage in that, his post speech interview just highlighted to me how ignorant of the facts he actually is and how he mislead the British people during the referendum by saying it would be easy. The undeniable fact is that he is a man who has never held the levers of powers and has no idea how they work. If he knew one thing, he'd know that if you want a working system on day one, that the trade can operate that is backed up legislation - day one needs to be somewhat later than March 2019.

By openly seeking a transition it gives businesses both here and in the EU some certainty. I couldn't possibly attempt to explain the complex relationships between trade, it systems, supply chains, international security but you simply can't change them overnight and you need considerable time to update, re-write or in some cases start afresh. Neither the UK or Europe are ready.

I am intrigued as to what our trading relationship will be. The Canada (which is a trade deal) and Norway (EFTA membership) models have been excluded. Given we are now looking to retain trading relationships until 2021, it would give scope for free trade negotiations to be started. I'll maintain the position we wont get a deal done quickly, and I'd guess we'd look to extend the transition period in some form until we have.

So bizarrely, whilst there was a lot of Maybot speak in that speech and she gave the impression of being teacher talking to school kids, the transition element, for me at least, is about the most positive thing I've heard come out of Government since Cameron resigned.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

It now seems that they've finally understood that leaving the EU is a massively complicated thing to do. I don't include Farage in that, his post speech interview just highlighted to me how ignorant of the facts he actually is and how he mislead the British people during the referendum by saying it would be easy. The undeniable fact is that he is a man who has never held the levers of powers and has no idea how they work. If he knew one thing, he'd know that if you want a working system on day one, that the trade can operate that is backed up legislation - day one needs to be somewhat later than March 2019.

By openly seeking a transition it gives businesses both here and in the EU some certainty. I couldn't possibly attempt to explain the complex relationships between trade, it systems, supply chains, international security but you simply can't change them overnight and you need considerable time to update, re-write or in some cases start afresh. Neither the UK or Europe are ready.

I am intrigued as to what our trading relationship will be. The Canada (which is a trade deal) and Norway (EFTA membership) models have been excluded. Given we are now looking to retain trading relationships until 2021, it would give scope for free trade negotiations to be started. I'll maintain the position we wont get a deal done quickly, and I'd guess we'd look to extend the transition period in some form until we have.

So bizarrely, whilst there was a lot of Maybot speak in that speech and she gave the impression of being teacher talking to school kids, the transition element, for me at least, is about the most positive thing I've heard come out of Government since Cameron resigned.

Yes I saw his reaction to the Maybot's speech on C4 news.Even more interesting ,IMO,was an interview he gave to the Daily Politics where he said he thought there shouldn't be any transition period at all and we should just leave the EU at the earliest opportunity.Madness.

The post-Brexit exit deal will indeed be interesting to behold.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

Yes I saw his reaction to the Maybot's speech on C4 news.Even more interesting ,IMO,was an interview he gave to the Daily Politics where he said he thought there shouldn't be any transition period at all and we should just leave the EU at the earliest opportunity.Madness.

The post-Brexit deal will indeed be interesting to behold.

It certainly will be, especially as the government hasn't the faintest idea of what deal they want. Well, that's not exactly true; May with her notions of creativity and imagination still has the dream of an agreement with the EU which puts us outside but without losing the trading benefits...............it's an impossible dream. What will come after that realisation dawns is anybody's guess. However, two years extra (with the possibility of additional years) is at least some relief from the likely precipice we faced in 2019.
I still hold to my 'what a mess' position and I wonder whether May will still be around in 2021 at the supposed end of negociations? I suppose you have to ask the question, who would want to take over from her to have to see through negociations, which are going to leave, one way or another, millions of people disappointed. This indeed thows up an interesting situation concerning who would lead the Tories into the next election. Perhaps that's a clever move by May, in getting an extra two years. Would the Tories want to change their leader months before the General Election in 2022???

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

See that nice Mr Macron wasn't too impressed by the Maybot's Florence speech.Be interesting to see what Mutti thinks too after tomorrow's elections in Germany.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-41369600

 

[callan]

Just think what we could do with £51bn...anyone want to divide it by £350m to see how many weeks/years/decades we could fund the NHS.

Coming out of many years of austerity, there is much we could do with the money.....boost services, finance our ailing infrastructure etc....we wont as we look o be prepared to carry on handing over what are considerable amounts to the EU....not sure what we had paid in since we joined but recall half a trillion as a figure mentioned.

Whilst the figure on the side of the bus was certainly misleading, is it much different to putting a gross salary figure forward on a CV.....either way we are and have paid billions into a project....that hasn't managed a successful audit since it's come into being.

Now I know you voted remain, but are you happy to hand over billions of UK taxpayers money to a project that even whilst part of prior to the referendum, we were never fully integrated with, and isn't overtly keen on having it's books checked?

 

[Lord Football]

Maybe if we hadn't had years of austerity, of which a major plank was slashing civil services jobs, we may be in a position where we wouldn't need a transition period and we wouldn't be worrying how to control of our own borders with no staff.

God knows how much the resourcing is going to cost us.

It just sums up the ridiculousness of the situation we've found ourselves in.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

Maybe if we hadn't had years of austerity, of which a major plank was slashing civil services jobs, we may be in a position where we wouldn't need a transition period and we wouldn't be worrying how to control of our own borders with no staff.

God knows how much the resourcing is going to cost us.

It just sums up the ridiculousness of the situation we've found ourselves in.

It is precisely that austerity, combined with the Tories incompetence over Brexit negotiations, which will win the next general election for Labour.

 

[old leigh shrimper]

Nothing of consequence will happen or be announced until the next General election...... As there would be nothing to be gained by the uk politicians if there was.They will be looking to be re-elected on further promises at the time...IMHO

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

I won't be around to see it but when history is written, towards the end of this century, Cameron will be pointed out as easily the most catastrophic Prime Minister the UK has had during that period, for offering a referendum demanding a simple majority, on the question of our membership of the EU. Those on here that will still be alive (Trump permitting) mark my words!
The British people were 'sold a pup' through sound bites and downright lies in June 2016 (although the truth was neither the preserve of the remain camp nor certainly the leave supporters).
Although the referendum result was not binding, it is now the assumption that we must follow the 'will of the people.'.............and the options are stark. We must leave the EU.............."Brexit is Brexit".........although, quite honestly no one, least of all our present government, hae any idea what that really means. The power struggle in the Tory party is ongoing and there are those who would wish (along with much of industry and commerce) for a softer Brexit. This line is being pushed, by some but certainly not all in the Labour Party. Surely and sadly this argument is as deceitful as many of the claims from the leave campaign in the referendum. It can only lead to a situation where we would still be paying heavily into the EU without any say in the decisions that body takes. It would be IMHO a far inferior position to the one we hold (considering the advantages we have negotiated over the years) at the present time, inside the EU.
The only logical position, blindly following the simple majority referendum leave vote, is a hard Brexit. There are some on here who closely adhere to that resolution of the EU negotiations. Yet, that gamble with so many problems and complications and lack of certainty concerning its outcome, is one pushed by much of the right-wing press with their vested interests. Even if it does eventually work out in some way, in the distant future, I don't think these supporters have spelt out exactly what that will mean for a future 'cut price' Britain. It certainly won't be one which will benefit the poor and needy and there lies the ironic tragedy, as it was those in deprived areas (many, like Cornwall and Wales, receiving subsidies from the EU) who voted for Brexit. For me there are similarities between the UK Brexit and US Trump. The idea that by leaving the EU Britain will become great again is just as deluded as the idea of many of the poor in the US who supported Trump with the idea that it would benefit and improve their situation.
The EU is far from perfect but those who decry the EU for its non-elected business-orientated bureaucrats, just wait and see what post hard-Brexit Britain has in store for you. What a mess!

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

I won't be around to see it but when history is written, towards the end of this century, Cameron will be pointed out as easily the most catastrophic Prime Minister the UK has had during that period, for offering a referendum demanding a simple majority, on the question of our membership of the EU. Those on here that will still be alive (Trump permitting) mark my words!
The British people were 'sold a pup' through sound bites and downright lies in June 2016 (although the truth was neither the preserve of the remain camp nor certainly the leave supporters).
Although the referendum result was not binding, it is now the assumption that we must follow the 'will of the people.'.............and the options are stark. We must leave the EU.............."Brexit is Brexit".........although, quite honestly no one, least of all our present government, hae any idea what that really means. The power struggle in the Tory party is ongoing and there are those who would wish (along with much of industry and commerce) for a softer Brexit. This line is being pushed, by some but certainly not all in the Labour Party. Surely and sadly this argument is as deceitful as many of the claims from the leave campaign in the referendum. It can only lead to a situation where we would still be paying heavily into the EU without any say in the decisions that body takes. It would be IMHO a far inferior position to the one we hold (considering the advantages we have negotiated over the years) at the present time, inside the EU.
The only logical position, blindly following the simple majority referendum leave vote, is a hard Brexit. There are some on here who closely adhere to that resolution of the EU negotiations. Yet, that gamble with so many problems and complications and lack of certainty concerning its outcome, is one pushed by much of the right-wing press with their vested interests. Even if it does eventually work out in some way, in the distant future, I don't think these supporters have spelt out exactly what that will mean for a future 'cut price' Britain. It certainly won't be one which will benefit the poor and needy and there lies the ironic tragedy, as it was those in deprived areas (many, like Cornwall and Wales, receiving subsidies from the EU) who voted for Brexit. For me there are similarities between the UK Brexit and US Trump. The idea that by leaving the EU Britain will become great again is just as deluded as the idea of many of the poor in the US who supported Trump with the idea that it would benefit and improve their situation.
The EU is far from perfect but those who decry the EU for its non-elected business-orientated bureaucrats, just wait and see what post hard-Brexit Britain has in store for you. What a mess!

Best thing I've seen on SZ in quite a while.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

]Nothing of consequence will happen or be announced until the next General election[/B]...... As there would be nothing to be gained by the uk politicians if there was.They will be looking to be re-elected on further promises at the time...IMHO

Far too cynical.It's 2022 we're talkng about.Or quite possibly before if the Tories think the electoral cycle might be working in their favour (now the five year rule has effectively been abolished).:winking:

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

Apologies to TUIB and *** but I couldn't ignore this one. For those, like me, who have doubts about the clarity of Labour's position on Brexit and concerns that Corbyn is ducking discussion on Europe, Sadiq Khan was on Radio Four news this morning, to reassure us all. He summed up Labour's position succinctly when he appeared to agree, following our exit from the EU, to the continuance of free movement of labour................................................for London! :smile:

 

[callan]

Apologies to TUIB and *** but I couldn't ignore this one. For those, like me, who have doubts about the clarity of Labour's position on Brexit and concerns that Corbyn is ducking discussion on Europe, Sadiq Khan was on Radio Four news this morning, to reassure us all. He summed up Labour's position succinctly when he appeared to agree, following our exit from the EU, to the continuance of free movement of labour................................................for London! :smile:

Labour I don't think have a position on Brexit, they do however appear to have a strategy to be all things to all men.
Whilst I can see this working in the short term, particularly with the Tories handling of the negotiations, at some point the Electorate are going to want to know what Labours plans are.

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

Apologies to TUIB and *** but I couldn't ignore this one. For those, like me, who have doubts about the clarity of Labour's position on Brexit and concerns that Corbyn is ducking discussion on Europe, Sadiq Khan was on Radio Four news this morning, to reassure us all. He summed up Labour's position succinctly when he appeared to agree, following our exit from the EU, to the continuance of free movement of labour................................................for London! :smile:

the lack of a vote on it at Conference is down to the membership as they chose the policies they wanted voted on. There is a debate but no vote. I think that at the moment that is the right thing to do as the EU situation changes daily so its not ideal to have a fixed policy when the situation is so fluid. Because Labour supporters are largely Remain, but with MPs in Leave areas too, Labour need to play the long game. Frustrating for those who voted Remain (myself included) but I'm not spooked by it, I'm willing to be patient.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

Labour I don't think have a position on Brexit, they do however appear to have a strategy to be all things to all men.
Whilst I can see this working in the short term, particularly with the Tories handling of the negotiations, at some point the Electorate are going to want to know what Labours plans are.

On the contrary, the Tories have now taken over lock, stock and barrel, Labour's very clear position on remaining as members of the single market and the Custom's union, in the transition period to Brexit.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

the lack of a vote on it at Conference is down to the membership as they chose the policies they wanted voted on. There is a debate but no vote. I think that at the moment that is the right thing to do as the EU situation changes daily so its not ideal to have a fixed policy when the situation is so fluid. Because Labour supporters are largely remain, but with MPs in Leave areas too, Labour need to play the long game. Frustrating for those who voted Remain (myself included) but I'm not spooked by it, I'm willing to be patient.

I'm afraid that no degree of patience is going to solve the situation of the basic split in your party. Labour supporters in the south may be largely remain but surely that can't be said of those in the north? The direction at the moment is strictly non-committal, seemingly in the vain hope that things will somehow sort themselves thus not requiring the need to come down on one side or the other. The likelihood is that this won't work and there will soon be a make your mind up time for the Labour Party which risks alienating either your voters in the north or the south.
Yet, as Mr Kahn didn't go quite as far as to suggest, there is a solution. We could have the continuation of 'free movement of labour' just in London and the south of England. Perhaps this is what May was alluding to when she suggested that the EU should be creative and imaginative! :winking:

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

I'm afraid that no degree of patience is going to solve the situation of the basic split in your party. Labour supporters in the south may be largely remain but surely that can't be said of those in the north? The direction at the moment is strictly non-committal, seemingly in the vain hope that things will somehow sort themselves thus not requiring the need to come down on one side or the other. The likelihood is that this won't work and there will soon be a make your mind up time for the Labour Party which risks alienating either your voters in the north or the south.
Yet, as Mr Kahn didn't go quite as far as to suggest, there is a solution. We could have the continuation of 'free movement of labour' just in London and the south of England. Perhaps this is what May was alluding to when she suggested that the EU should be creative and imaginative! :winking:

I'm sure you've noticed that HMG is currently The Tories.They will be replaced by Labour at the next general election.

There is no "split" in Labour on Europe.There is within the Tories,both inside and outside parliament.

The Tories have insisted that free movement of labour will go in March 2019.Apparently, poeple will have to register from then on.We'll see.

 

[callan]

On the contrary, the Tories have now taken over lock, stock and barrel, Labour's very clear position on remaining as members of the single market and the Custom's union in the transition period to Brexit.

This is a Joke right?

From Labours Manifesto...ambiguity at it's finest...

It said: “We will scrap the Conservatives’ Brexit White Paper and replace it with fresh negotiating priorities that have a strong emphasis on retaining the benefits of the Single Market and the Customs Union – which are essential for maintaining industries, jobs and businesses in Britain.”

From the Leader of the Party;

23 July: Negotiate access to the single market, but not membership
Jeremy Corbyn said that the UK would have to leave the single market because staying in it is “dependent on membership of the EU”. He said that instead, the UK should reach a trade agreement with the trading bloc that gives the UK the same benefits (i.e. tariff-free access).

However....

Keir Starmer has said (as you point out) that the UK should stay in the Single Market for a transitional period....

Tom Watson seems to have a different view as he tells us that the UK 'could' stay in the single market permanently.

Sadiq Khan wants full membership for London?...plus continued freedom of movement?

Perhaps you will share with us how Labour are going to achieve all of this?

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

Fine! We all know that the transition period is just a breather to try and sort out the completely intractable difficulties of a smooth exit from the EU...........IT'S NOT A SOLUTION! Please tell me where the Labour Party stands regarding the single market, custom's union and free movement of Labour etc etc POST 2021.