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Coronavirus (Non-Politics)

lordlumpington

Manager
Joined
Dec 10, 2003
Messages
1,465
With the strange tradition of Halloween approaching surely there should be a directive of no trick of treating. Or residents are given the option to spray the unwelcome visitors with sanitisor 😂
 

slapheadsteve

First XI
Joined
Aug 5, 2010
Messages
657
6 of us went into their pub in West St, Brighton last Weds. Guy on the door only asked one of us to fill out a form.
I work in the Billericay Brewery Micropub, which is table service only. Strictly no customer's are allowed at the bar.
Yes it is correct only one person, at the table has to fill out a form for Track and Trace. It does not matter if its 1 or 2 or even 6 people at the table, you only require one person's details.
That has not changed today, with the rule of 6.
You do not have to do this with every customer on a second visit, if you know the customer and have his full details you can fill the form out, but a full record must be kept every day of a contact at each table, each visit.
 

Massimo Giovanni

Life President
Joined
May 10, 2011
Messages
7,288
Location
Siena
interesting application on bbc site, tells you the number of cases in your area. Mine was 6 positives in 100,000

Have you tried getting a test?
Simple accounting is that if less tests are done, and if many well persons get tested then results will show less positive results but figures are surely just indicative?
 

pottster

Schoolboy
Joined
Sep 19, 2005
Messages
210
Have you tried getting a test?
Simple accounting is that if less tests are done, and if many well persons get tested then results will show less positive results but figures are surely just indicative?
I haven't tried getting the test as I've had no symptoms. Are you saying the figures here are incorrect?
 

Massimo Giovanni

Life President
Joined
May 10, 2011
Messages
7,288
Location
Siena
I haven't tried getting the test as I've had no symptoms. Are you saying the figures here are incorrect?
What do you think? Every person can read the news and make their own conclusions.

The figures are likely correct on the count that has taken place.

I believe it is simple maths and percentages that more testing will show more positive tests and that the wider the samples taken the less, as a %, is going to be the number of positives.
And the opposite is true, less testing will result in less positives and testing of more symptom showing persons will raise the positive %.
However by either means the results won't give a fully helpful picture to scientists trying to assess spread or how many persons might be contagious but not incapacitated, nor help with understanding possible reasons as to how people are affected differently.
 
Last edited:

MattE

Manager
Joined
Aug 8, 2005
Messages
1,082
What do you think? Every person can read the news and make their own conclusions.

The figures are likely correct on the count that has taken place.

I believe it is simple maths and percentages that more testing will show more positive tests and that the wider the samples taken the less, as a %, is going to be the number of positives.
And the opposite is true, less testing will result in less positives and testing of more symptom showing persons will raise the positive %.
However by either means the results won't give a fully helpful picture to scientists trying to assess spread or how many persons might be contagious but not incapacitated, nor help with understanding possible reasons as to how people are affected differently.

In todays Echo

He said: “People need to understand where we are. Two and a half weeks ago the percentage of positive tests in Southend was between 0.6 and 0.7 per cent. Now it is between 1.2 per cent and 1.3 per cent. It has effectively doubled.”

Looking at the % of positive tests removes the more testing finds more cases issue. All the testing is suppossed to be of people with symptoms so I don't think that has changed.
 

Massimo Giovanni

Life President
Joined
May 10, 2011
Messages
7,288
Location
Siena
In todays Echo

He said: “People need to understand where we are. Two and a half weeks ago the percentage of positive tests in Southend was between 0.6 and 0.7 per cent. Now it is between 1.2 per cent and 1.3 per cent. It has effectively doubled.”

Looking at the % of positive tests removes the more testing finds more cases issue. All the testing is suppossed to be of people with symptoms so I don't think that has changed.
I understand your point and the straight logic in that % figure.
However the testing criteria has changed and other categories of people are now being tested where as a few weeks ago it was frontline workers and a few others.
An example is someone I know who is an ICU nurse, and has had possible symptoms and been in close contact with covid patients, she has had 3 tests, all negative but done quickly so she can keep on working.
At that time, for example, teachers and students, were not being tested, now they are.
How many teenagers had covid, non crisis, over the summer, but didn't get tested? I know a few.
So again, the figures are, as I agreed likely accurately recorded BUT for me they are not the "be all and end all", more an indication of trends to be taken notice of as a guide.
 

Tinks

X Factor Winner 1943 and PHB
Joined
Nov 17, 2006
Messages
4,843
Location
Eastwood
They’re saying the second wave is coming now.
The first wave never left us.
We are still seeing some people who are positive

On the plus side locally we are not doing too bad in comparison to other areas of the country and Castlepoint is a little higher than Southend.

We really need the testing and tracing to be working to capacity
 

Ricey

Scott Forbes No.1 Fan
Joined
Dec 21, 2003
Messages
31,345
Location
Braintree
The first wave never left us.
We are still seeing some people who are positive

On the plus side locally we are not doing too bad in comparison to other areas of the country and Castlepoint is a little higher than Southend.

We really need the testing and tracing to be working to capacity
Are numbers not just higher because we are testing more?
 

Massimo Giovanni

Life President
Joined
May 10, 2011
Messages
7,288
Location
Siena
Are numbers not just higher because we are testing more?
Yes and no!
More test may mean more positives, however last few weeks test have (supposedly) been open to more sectors of public, aside from front line and hospitalised patients.
Months ago many managed what was likely covid without being tested.
The test figures are an indicator, and ought to be used along with other indicators such as GP advice and NHS direct ph advice.
All said and done it does seem numbers are on the rise but in what age groups? High risk? Oldsters? Youths?
A proper press and journalists would be asking these questions and reporting it better?
 

MattE

Manager
Joined
Aug 8, 2005
Messages
1,082
Yes and no!
More test may mean more positives, however last few weeks test have (supposedly) been open to more sectors of public, aside from front line and hospitalised patients.
Months ago many managed what was likely covid without being tested.
The test figures are an indicator, and ought to be used along with other indicators such as GP advice and NHS direct ph advice.
All said and done it does seem numbers are on the rise but in what age groups? High risk? Oldsters? Youths?
A proper press and journalists would be asking these questions and reporting it better?
I saw a report on the age distribution a week or 2 ago (copied under graph below). It is now much more prevalent in the under 40's. I queried with the author if that was because at the start of the crisis you were only tested if hospitalised, or over 70(?), so testing was skewed to the older generation. The author claimed not - but I don't see how the age statistics from now are comparable to 4 to 6 months ago.


Capture.PNG


In recent days and weeks, concern has risen that Europe could be at the beginning of a second wave of the pandemic. Here in the UK in fact, the number of confirmed cases rose by 2,988 yesterday, which was the largest daily increase since May 22. But even as case numbers have risen, hospitalisations and deaths have thankfully not. One of the key reasons for this is that it’s now younger people who are more likely to get the virus. Most of this evidence has been anecdotal across the world but the attached chart from Public Health England provides some telling statistics.


Back at the peak of the pandemic in late March, 61% of the confirmed cases were among those over 60. But they now make up just 11% of cases. For over 80 year olds it's dropped from 28% to 3%.


For those under 40 it’s the reverse picture with cases increasing from 14% to 67% of the total.


Cases amongst the 20-39 years old group has increased from 12% of the total to 48% over the same period. Indeed this cohort seem to be where most of the concern is globally in terms of spreading the virus. They are young enough not to be too scared by the risks and also young enough to be restless from the restrictions.
 

Tinks

X Factor Winner 1943 and PHB
Joined
Nov 17, 2006
Messages
4,843
Location
Eastwood
I saw a report on the age distribution a week or 2 ago (copied under graph below). It is now much more prevalent in the under 40's. I queried with the author if that was because at the start of the crisis you were only tested if hospitalised, or over 70(?), so testing was skewed to the older generation. The author claimed not - but I don't see how the age statistics from now are comparable to 4 to 6 months ago.


View attachment 12884


In recent days and weeks, concern has risen that Europe could be at the beginning of a second wave of the pandemic. Here in the UK in fact, the number of confirmed cases rose by 2,988 yesterday, which was the largest daily increase since May 22. But even as case numbers have risen, hospitalisations and deaths have thankfully not. One of the key reasons for this is that it’s now younger people who are more likely to get the virus. Most of this evidence has been anecdotal across the world but the attached chart from Public Health England provides some telling statistics.


Back at the peak of the pandemic in late March, 61% of the confirmed cases were among those over 60. But they now make up just 11% of cases. For over 80 year olds it's dropped from 28% to 3%.


For those under 40 it’s the reverse picture with cases increasing from 14% to 67% of the total.


Cases amongst the 20-39 years old group has increased from 12% of the total to 48% over the same period. Indeed this cohort seem to be where most of the concern is globally in terms of spreading the virus. They are young enough not to be too scared by the risks and also young enough to be restless from the restrictions.
That would reflect what we are seeing.
Massimo Giovanni is absolutely spot on in regards to testing.
When this first hit us the only way to get tested was admission into hospital - this is not the case now. Although, from a colleague working on the test and trace and on the local statics there are more negative than positive cases coming back.
At the moment all the local care homes are being tested (residents) on a monthly basis and staff in the homes weekly. The care homes are fully aware of everything and have procedures in place for new admissions.
Plans are coming into place for community nurses to be tested weekly and GP services too.
 
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