Coronavirus (Non-Politics)

[Member]

They won't say anything yet, but I personally think if the data keeps going the way it is hospitality will be reopened indoors (with some restrictions) in April along with non-essential shops. It's being legally challenged in the courts which is also the reason the curfew and substantial meal have been scrapped. There was insufficient evidence and successfully challenged in court.

The government have made their dates clear. No sooner than:

April 12 for non-essential shops, services, retail, indoor gyms etc.
April 12 for outdoor areas in hospitality. Outdoor attractions
May 17 for indoor hospitality and attractions
June 21 for lifting all other restrictions/social distancing etc.

Why do you think they'll deviate from their widely communicated plan?

 

[Holy Joe]

The government have made their dates clear. No sooner than:

April 12 for non-essential shops, services, retail, indoor gyms etc.
April 12 for outdoor areas in hospitality. Outdoor attractions
May 17 for indoor hospitality and attractions
June 21 for lifting all other restrictions/social distancing etc.

Why do you think they'll deviate from their widely communicated plan?

To be fair they've u-turned on everything else. So it's quite plausible, if the data continues to improve, they may cave in to the pressure from one of the 'research groups' to open up faster

 

[jackj13]

The government have made their dates clear. No sooner than:

April 12 for non-essential shops, services, retail, indoor gyms etc.
April 12 for outdoor areas in hospitality. Outdoor attractions
May 17 for indoor hospitality and attractions
June 21 for lifting all other restrictions/social distancing etc.

Why do you think they'll deviate from their widely communicated plan?

The very important phrase that is being mentioned all the time is data not dates. If you're going by the data and it's better than you was expecting it has to work both ways. That's why I was quite surprised when the no sooner than dates come out. If you're going by the data why do we have no sooner than dates?

 

[Holy Joe]

The very important phrase that is being mentioned all the time is data not dates. If you're going by the data and it's better than you was expecting it has to work both ways. That's why I was quite surprised when the no sooner than dates come out. If you're going by the data why do we have no sooner than dates?

To give a chance for the data to reflect/adjust to the latest change?

 

[Chalky]

The government have made their dates clear. No sooner than:

April 12 for non-essential shops, services, retail, indoor gyms etc.
April 12 for outdoor areas in hospitality. Outdoor attractions
May 17 for indoor hospitality and attractions
June 21 for lifting all other restrictions/social distancing etc.

Why do you think they'll deviate from their widely communicated plan?

Because they all said we will be governed by data. So if data drastically improves, you apply the same principle that was applied to lockdowns, as soon as they saw an excuse to do them, they did. The reverse should also be true.

 

[Member]

The very important phrase that is being mentioned all the time is data not dates. If you're going by the data and it's better than you was expecting it has to work both ways. That's why I was quite surprised when the no sooner than dates come out. If you're going by the data why do we have no sooner than dates?

The govt made it clear that they'll make decisions based on the data but they won't bring the dates forward from those they've provided. Yes there's a chance they'll backtrack, but they set the dates so businesses can prepare. I don't expect they'll accelerate things given they've explicitly said they won't.

 

[Napster]

The govt made it clear that they'll make decisions based on the data but they won't bring the dates forward from those they've provided. Yes there's a chance they'll backtrack, but they set the dates so businesses can prepare. I don't expect they'll accelerate things given they've explicitly said they won't.

Yeah people forget the businesses have to prepare themselves! That involves the cleaning, getting staff off furlough, probably new H&S policies etc

 

[Member]

Yeah people forget the businesses have to prepare themselves! That involves the cleaning, getting staff off furlough, probably new H&S policies etc

Restocking, recruiting staff etc. Little point in reopening hospitality if people haven't returned to workplaces that support them etc.

 

[jackj13]

The Government have already said it will be 1 weeks notice before the proposed date. That is nowhere near enough time for hospitality to prepare.

The govt made it clear that they'll make decisions based on the data but they won't bring the dates forward from those they've provided. Yes there's a chance they'll backtrack, but they set the dates so businesses can prepare. I don't expect they'll accelerate things given they've explicitly said they won't.

So you admit that it's all about the data and the only reason for the dates is so businesses can prepare. That's a pretty lame argument to be honest. So for example we could be at a point where the data says we're now at the point you can reopen but you can't because we've already given you a proposed reopening date and we're not changing it.

 

[Member]

The Government have already said it will be 1 weeks notice before the proposed date. That is nowhere near enough time for hospitality to prepare.



So you admit that it's all about the data and the only reason for the dates is so businesses can prepare. That's a pretty lame argument to be honest. So for example we could be at a point where the data says we're now at the point you can reopen but you can't because we've already given you a proposed reopening date and we're not changing it.

I've not said that or admitted that. Setting dates is important for preparation, the dates have been set using estimates of where we'll be at certain points in time and include timepoints where they'll reassess things and then (hopefully) commit to the next change with one weeks' notice. They're giving each change in restriction 4 weeks to show in the data and then looking to make the next change.

It's great the cases and hospitalizations and deaths are coming down. I'm not sure if they're coming down faster or slower than the estimates they used a few weeks ago to commit to this strategy, but I think we are seeing regional variation and that in some areas the rate of decline is slowing and that needs to come down further. I don't think it's just a simple as looking at the average and trajectory and saying that we're out of the woods now and can just open everything gup immediately. I hope we get the vaccines rolled out more quickly than anticipated, and maybe that might see things accelerated, but as I've said over multiple posts I think that's unlikely.

I think the vaccination targets have been set quite conservatively as it'll enable an easy political win if we beat them. I imagine 30-40s could be getting their first jab as soon as mid-April in some regions.

 

[Leigh_Seasider]

The Government have already said it will be 1 weeks notice before the proposed date. That is nowhere near enough time for hospitality to prepare.



So you admit that it's all about the data and the only reason for the dates is so businesses can prepare. That's a pretty lame argument to be honest. So for example we could be at a point where the data says we're now at the point you can reopen but you can't because we've already given you a proposed reopening date and we're not changing it.

In my opinion it’s the support to these businesses needs to improve, not having them open sooner. I’d personally leave pubs and restaurants til last but give them better financial support. It’s absolutely right that schools should go back first and absolutely right we should be slow and cautious. We want this to be the absolute final lockdown, we don’t want another one. I want to go back to work for good - as I’m sure do millions of others.

 

[jackj13]

I've not said that or admitted that. Setting dates is important for preparation, the dates have been set using estimates of where we'll be at certain points in time and include timepoints where they'll reassess things and then (hopefully) commit to the next change with one weeks' notice. They're giving each change in restriction 4 weeks to show in the data and then looking to make the next change.

It's great the cases and hospitalizations and deaths are coming down. I'm not sure if they're coming down faster or slower than the estimates they used a few weeks ago to commit to this strategy, but I think we are seeing regional variation and that in some areas the rate of decline is slowing and that needs to come down further. I don't think it's just a simple as looking at the average and trajectory and saying that we're out of the woods now and can just open everything gup immediately. I hope we get the vaccines rolled out more quickly than anticipated, and maybe that might see things accelerated, but as I've said over multiple posts I think that's unlikely.

I think the vaccination targets have been set quite conservatively as it'll enable an easy political win if we beat them. I imagine 30-40s could be getting their first jab as soon as mid-April in some regions.

I'm not saying open up everything immediately, I understand some restriction will still need to be in place and I understand the 4 week wait. But if we are ahead of where they thought the data should be then it should be brought forward because that is then not going by the data.

I do agree on this. However if we still have restrictions in place to wait for that age group to be vaccinated then we will be coming out far too slowly as there is next to no risk there.

In my opinion it’s the support to these businesses needs to improve, not having them open sooner. I’d personally leave pubs and restaurants til last but give them better financial support. It’s absolutely right that schools should go back first and absolutely right we should be slow and cautious. We want this to be the absolute final lockdown, we don’t want another one. I want to go back to work for good - as I’m sure do millions of others.

Of course everybody does. But pubs and restaurants have been very unfairly targeted in all of this. Loads more restrictions in place than other places. Even the government had to come out this week and confirm the eat out to help out scheme didn't result in a spike of cases as it was being misreported. They also got given strict government guidelines to collect test and trace contact details and this week it was admitted test and trace didn't even use the data. Didn't need to do that to stroll round primark and get as close you like to somebody though.

 

[Leigh_Seasider]

Of course everybody does. But pubs and restaurants have been very unfairly targeted in all of this. Loads more restrictions in place than other places. Even the government had to come out this week and confirm the eat out to help out scheme didn't result in a spike of cases as it was being misreported. They also got given strict government guidelines to collect test and trace contact details and this week it was admitted test and trace didn't even use the data. Didn't need to do that to stroll round primark and get as close you like to somebody though.

Mate I'm not saying I don't sympathise but pubs/restaurants at least could open through last summer. My industry has been affected throughout this, we've been trading over 90% down since last March. The timetable now isn't the issue (it's the right way).. it's how businesses have been supported and I won't even go there on 'things that could've been done different' - as that's politics!!!!

 

[Ricey]

Mate I'm not saying I don't sympathise but pubs/restaurants at least could open through last summer. My industry has been affected throughout this, we've been trading over 90% down since last March. The timetable now isn't the issue (it's the right way).. it's how businesses have been supported and I won't even go there on 'things that could've been done different' - as that's politics!!!!

Im with you there, my industry is in bits and not likely to get back to pre covid numbers for at least 3 years. We are running on bare bones just to survive.

 

[jackj13]

Mate I'm not saying I don't sympathise but pubs/restaurants at least could open through last summer. My industry has been affected throughout this, we've been trading over 90% down since last March. The timetable now isn't the issue (it's the right way).. it's how businesses have been supported and I won't even go there on 'things that could've been done different' - as that's politics!!!!

Jesus sorry to hear that. What business are you in? I've been quite luck but know many people that have been awfully effected.

 

[Leigh_Seasider]

Jesus sorry to hear that. What business are you in? I've been quite luck but know many people that have been awfully effected.

I work in travel, so that’ll be the last thing to get back to normal! Let’s all just hope the data keeps going in the right direction, it’s gone on too long. Oh for the day we can all grab a beer and have a day at the football!!

 

[jackj13]

I work in travel, so that’ll be the last thing to get back to normal! Let’s all just hope the data keeps going in the right direction, it’s gone on too long. Oh for the day we can all grab a beer and have a day at the football!!

And I can't wait till it does! And to be honest whatever your opinion on the speed of it now it does appear we are on final straight so hopefully not too much longer!

 

[blueblueblue]

Did I hear right this morning on the radio of a 1% pay rise, I caught the tail and of the report.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

Did I hear right this morning on the radio of a 1% pay rise, I caught the tail and of the report.

Yeah but that's a recommendation.So could (and should) be changed.

 

[blueblueblue]

Yeah but that's a recommendation.So could (and should) be changed.

Funny enough, I've just heard the full report. Bloody hell, that's not going to sit well amongst the British public. They're even talking about industrial action.

I can certainly see this being reversed. Clap them every week as hero's, then this