Four into three won't go (aka how confident are you today?)

[Beefy]

Us and Crawley have been in the top two for most of the season but Cheltenham have been chasing hard and don't appear to be letting up.

Of the chasing pack, Swindon are on great form and look poised to take advantage of any slip up from one of the top three. Shrewsbury are only a point behind Swindon but I think there's a step down in quality from the top four to them and would expect them to trail off.

So today, with 21 games to go, what is your gut feeling about which of these four sides will not go up automatically?

I'm actually going for Crawley. I think we've strengthened well and that both Cheltenham and Swindon have enough about them to keep their current form going over most of the next few months whereas Crawley are stuttering slightly and seem too reliant on Tubbs & Barnett up front.

 

[Rob1920]

Can't see Crawley not being in the top 3 unfortunately, with their squad & budget. Swindon should sustain their form and I obviously hope and believe we will too. I do think Cheltenham are currently punching above their weight, which you can only do for so long. I'd say they are the most likely to slip back in the last third of the season.

Can't rule out Shrewsbury either, they are a consistently good side at this level.

 

[sufc_dave]

I think Cheltenham are in the running for a bit of a slump to be honest. Full credit to them for achieving some great results, but I can't see them lasting unfortunately.

Saying that, I dont think Crawley will finish in the top 3 either. Think the top 3 will consist of us, Swindon and Shrewsbury.

 

[Pubey]

I've gone for Crawley, because when it gets to la crunch I don't think they have the players, manager or fanbase to push them on.

 

[shallowshrimper]

Along the same lines I have been wondering if this season the top 3 whoever they are will all need 90+ points to assure automatic promotion. I think a few few years back MK Dons and Peterborough both had 90 plus points and cant remember who was third but I think they had 87 or 88 points.

On present form us and Cheltenham are on course for 95 but surely we wont need that many..........will we?

 

[Jam_Man]

I cant pick one of those, far too clsoe at moment.

Out of the 4 it was us recently looking the wobbliest, and we still have a lot of away games coming up.

Think the home games against them all are going to be key, should get some big crowds for those.

 

[Rayleigh Weir]

Definitely went with heart rather than head and voted Crawley...

 

[Shrimper Stu]

I didn't read the question properly before answering! I should have gone for Cheltenham, not Southend.

I can't see Cheltenham keeping up with their current form for much longer.

 

[Ayrshire Blue]

I see Cheltenham fading away. Although I'd love it to be Crawley.

 

[jarvisyeh]

Would have to go with Cheltenham but only because no one expected them to be where they are now, Crawley and Swindon were both tipped to be there or thereabouts, however I would love it to be Crawley with Shrewsbury going up via playoffs

 

[SU BLUE]

i think both us and shrewsbury have had our little blip Swindon and Cheltenham have there's to come. Crawley are probs in the middle of there's at present. Tough call this one but i hope we don't run the rule of the playoff's

 

[canveyshrimper]

i think both us and shrewsbury have had our little blip Swindon and Cheltenham have there's to come. Crawley are probs in the middle of there's at present. Tough call this one but i hope we don't run the rule of the playoff's

Not sure about that Swindon lost something like 5 out of their first 8 games. Having said that it's rumoured that they are about to sell Caddas & Ritchie. I think that Cheltenham may be the team to fade, I still expect Gillingham to be there or thereabouts.

I'd be happy to see Crawley drop out of contention, but don't think they will.

PS : Welcome to the board mate.

 

[TTS]

The way I would like to see it is that we have had our 'dip' Cheltenham are still on the crest that we was when we was in our 17 game winning run. I would love to see Swindon and Crawley get draws in their FAC games in the next round, adding to their fixture congestion !

Also, surely the others are thinking ' Southend have had their run and dip and now they are winning again ....'

People should beware us, not the other way round !!

 

[Clinton Baptiste]

I think its us plus 2 others, I honestly feel with the additions we have made, we will get promotion comfortably. Would wait until the end of the jan window to make judgements on the others. Swindon look very strong, have a very good midfield and defence and Benson (and whoever else they sign up front) will get goals. Crawley have been thwarted in their transfer efforts so far but do have two very good strikers in Tubbs and Barnett and a strong defence. Cheltenham seem to have been quite lucky with injuries and played the same team week in week out. Whether this catches up with them remains to be seen. We can rotate, Im not sure they can. I will go for us, Crawley and Swindon at this point in time but you never know if another team may make a late surge. Oxford have a strong squad as do Rotherham, Shrewsbury and Gillingham so dont rule them out.

 

[Somerset Ex-TTB]

i think both us and shrewsbury have had our little blip Swindon and Cheltenham have there's to come. Crawley are probs in the middle of there's at present. Tough call this one but i hope we don't run the rule of the playoff's

Exactly what I was going to say. Cheltenham have only lost 1 of the last 16 league games and must be due a dip soon, Crawley have lost 1 of the last 17 league games, however they have only won 1 of the last 5 and that was against Barnet. Hopefully their dip will last another 3 or 4 games, and they play each other at the start of Feb.

We have lost 2 of 18 league games, but are now 4 without defeat, so our little run in theory should be over for now. In one respect we were a bit lucky that a lot of the poor games and results came in the cup.

Swindon have lost 2 of 16 games, but I fear that the JPT and FA Cup will get in their way a little, as they will be playing Saturday/Tuesday for almost every single week from now until the end of the season (if they get to the JPT final).

So after all that I reckon it will be Swindon that miss out, but will go up through the play-offs (if their players are not dead by then after a potential 61 game season)

 

[Mr Plow]

Here's the points totals for the last few seasons needed for playoffs/promotion -

97 Title winner 2008
93 Title winner 2009
89 Title winners 2007(Average Points for Title winners)
88 3rd place 2008
86 Title winners 2006, Title winner 2010
85 3rd place 2007, Title winner 2008
82 3rd place 2009(Average points needed to finish 3rd)
81 3rd place 2006
80 3rd place 2010
78 play offs 2008, 3rd place 2008
72 play offs 2009
71 play offs 2007(Average points needed to finish 7th)
69 play offs 2008
68 play offs 2010
66 play offs 2006

 

[Smiffy]

Here's the points totals for the last few seasons needed for playoffs/promotion -

97 Title winner 2008
93 Title winner 2009
89 Title winners 2007(Average Points for Title winners)
88 3rd place 2008
86 Title winners 2006, Title winner 2010
85 3rd place 2007, Title winner 2008
82 3rd place 2009(Average points needed to finish 3rd)
81 3rd place 2006
80 3rd place 2010
78 play offs 2008, 3rd place 2008
72 play offs 2009
71 play offs 2007(Average points needed to finish 7th)
69 play offs 2008
68 play offs 2010
66 play offs 2006

So by my calculations, I think an average of around 1.5 points per game between now and May, should see us promoted.

We are currently rolling at 2.08.

A 1.5 average is about the same overall form as a team in 10th.

30 points (ish) from 63 on offer....We can do this.

 

[canveyshrimper]

So by my calculations, I think an average of around 1.5 points per game between now and May, should see us promoted.

We are currently rolling at 2.08.

A 1.5 average is about the same overall form as a team in 10th.

30 points (ish) from 63 on offer....We can do this.

I'd like us to improve our home form. We've taken 25 points from 13 home games and 27 from 12 away. Bear in mind we have Creepy, Cheltenham & Swindon to come to Roots Hall, coincidentally the 3 teams that we've lost to away.

I'm quietly confident that Sturrock won't let the players get carried away and I'm sure we'll take one of the automatic spots.

 

[DTS]

I have gone Crawley as I think they might struggle to keep up the momentum they have and they are also being bank rolled massively so that can always go wrong too.

 

[Bromley Blue]

Although I feel Cheltenham are over-performing at the moment, I took a look at their fixtures for the rest of the season yesterday and compared them to ours. As you know we have a lot of difficult games coming up in the next month or so whilst Cheltenham's fixtures looked a lot more straightforward (on paper). However they have a similar tough spell of games to us in March where they have to play most of the teams currently around them. If we can just keep in touch with the sides at the top over the next month or so I think we'll then have enough about us in the last few months to get over the line.