No getting away from 76points

[yogi bear up the cagire]

Had a little time this morning, still recovering from the tiredness of my weeks travels, so I did a bit of simple statistical work.
IIRC, when we still had a dozen or so matches remaining, I amongst others, fell on the 76 point target if we were to make a late charge for the play-offs.
Now, with seven or so matches to go I have taken the recent form of the top sides and applied it to the remaining games.....this is what I found:-


Team P Points Games Recent Form Estimated Final
Remaining Points
Tally
H A H A

Leicester 39 82 3 4 DWD WDLW 93
Peterboro 39 75 4 3 WWLW WWW 93
¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨
Millwall 38 70 4 4 LWLL WWWW 85
Leeds 38 65 4 4 WWWW WDDL 85
MKDons 37 68 4 5 LWDD WDDDW 82
Scunthorpe 38 64 5 3 WWWDL DLL 75
¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨
Tranmere 39 62 3 4 WWW WLDL 75
Southend 39 58 4 3 WWLW WLW 73
Oldham 38 58 3 5 LLD DLWD 66
Colchester 38 54 3 5 LWD DWDLW 66

So, amazingly, the seventy-six point target remains, stubbornly, the same. Thus, on that basis, we can only drop points in any one of our remaining fixtures, in order to make the impossible dream come true.The disappointing fact of life is, that although we have been doing extremely well recently...............................................................................
...........so have most of the teams above us. On this calculation we only have a real chance of catching Scunny or Tranmere for the final play-off place.
Personally, I've thought that it has always been a bit too much of an ask......although, whilst there is still life there is hope! Realistically, I think we have done incredibly well to get to this position and it is great credit to Tilly and the team for keeping the season alive for so long.
For those that are going to be depressed about the above figures, I have added the prediction for Colchester on the same basis........in the hope that it may cheer people up a bit!

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

Don't know why on posting all my careful columns and headings get screwed up..........
........is there a way of avoiding this? I hope that most of you can understand what I'm getting at, even in its jumbled presentation.

 

[rowhst101rhall]

I've always thought the play offs is an ask too far this season, however if we can finish top 10, that will be an over achievement imo.

Hopefully this summer we can actually strengthen the squad in key places of LM, LB and CB and give us a side with better balance to give it a good go next season.

 

[manor15]

Wow I worked out something similar but much less detailed at the game yesterday and I doubt we will make the playoffs but we have to believe, our team can do anything, COME ON YOU BLUES

 

[Sussex Shrimper]

Talk of a playoff charge is just setting ourselves back up for disappointment. Any lingering chances that we may have probably won't be helped by piling the pressure back on at this stage.

Let's just take this season for what it is - a rebuilding job, and by all appearances a pretty damn successful one. Nobody knows what will happen over the summer, but the smart money has to be on us starting next season in far better shape than this time around. We've got work to do to replace loanees and possibly Clarke, and we know that any failure to sign former or present youth internationals from major nations will be seized upon as a "disgrace" by some fans, but we're moving forwards again and that's no mean feat after losing such key figures at the start of the season.

 

[Lester Bangs]

I've always thought the play offs is an ask too far this season, however if we can finish top 10, that will be an over achievement imo.

I agree that play offs is definitely a tough ask but I think we deserve at least a top ten finish.

Had it not been for that awful slump where Tilly and Brush had to bring in some new loan players we would've been right in the mix.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

Talk of a playoff charge is just setting ourselves back up for disappointment. Any lingering chances that we may have probably won't be helped by piling the pressure back on at this stage.

Let's just take this season for what it is - a rebuilding job, and by all appearances a pretty damn successful one. Nobody knows what will happen over the summer, but the smart money has to be on us starting next season in far better shape than this time around. We've got work to do to replace loanees and possibly Clarke, and we know that any failure to sign former or present youth internationals from major nations will be seized upon as a "disgrace" by some fans, but we're moving forwards again and that's no mean feat after losing such key figures at the start of the season.

I think there are points of agreement with what you have said above but also some points that I would withold judgement for the moment. 'Play-off charge' was language that was perhaps more appropriate for a month or so ago when not only were we showing a fine vein of form but we could also hope that two or three teams above us would crack..........that sadly has not been the case. I have been very careful in my language and would have thought that I gave the impression that there was very little chance of our play-off dream coming to fruition.
As for rebuilding...........I'm not sure that the news is that positive. Our first period of success this season was based on a team using Federici, HRK, Harding and Sawyer as loan players. The second wind this season has been achieved with the benifit of Robinson and Dervite, neither of whom are likely to be with us next year. For me, we shall have to wait until August to find out how the rebuilding for next season has gone.

 

[Nobby Snide]

with the threadbare squad we have this season, any finish above half way is a good season....again, a high reliance on loans has got us there...some will argue, thats what loans are for, but I would be happier with the loans 'patching the squad' rather than being the reason of our success..

but, saying that, well done T&B for playing the game. The fat lady hasnt cleared her throat yet for play off places......ahem

 

[Shrimper]

I remember that not so long ago we were 17th and lots of people were baying for Tilson's head, now look at the team. Fantastic form of late and had we beaten Crewe like we had deserved to and drawn against Millwall, again, like we deserved to then we would've been touching the play-offs. I can't see us doing it myself as i think the games against MK Dons and Leicester will cripple us but they are at home so we can have some help from the 12th man. I hope that we win all of our remaining games and see how it goes but i can just either goal difference coming into it, or us needing to beat Cheltenham on the last day of the season and failing to do so.

 

[Sussex Shrimper]

As for rebuilding...........I'm not sure that the news is that positive. Our first period of success this season was based on a team using Federici, HRK, Harding and Sawyer as loan players. The second wind this season has been achieved with the benifit of Robinson and Dervite, neither of whom are likely to be with us next year. For me, we shall have to wait until August to find out how the rebuilding for next season has gone.

One thing that I hope is now becoming clear is that we perform much better going forwards when we employ a front-line built around guile and movement than one reliant upon physical presence. I respect Revell as a professional, but I feel that we do better with a different kind of player. I still think that a forward pairing of any two of Barnard, Freedman and Laurent can do good things for us, and we know that Walker can be effective if we can instill enough confidence into him. I'm not sure that the loss of Robinson will be the end of the world. Dervite will be almost impossible to replace, but at least now we have some idea of the sort of qualities we should be looking for in a player who can compliment what we already have at the back.

...again, a high reliance on loans has got us there...some will argue, thats what loans are for, but I would be happier with the loans 'patching the squad' rather than being the reason of our success..

I understand where you're coming from, but at the same time I think that we have to be realistic about the calibre of player we can sign permanently. The loan market is probably the only way that we can sign players of the same calibre as those affordable by the bigger clubs likely to be in this division next season. I agree that the core of the side should consist of permanent signings so that it's not liable to be decimated at any moment, but the loan market provides us with the opportunity to sign some difference makers along the way. I'd love to see more players like Dervite and Sawyer getting the chance to cut their teeth with us next year, as long as we're not too dependent upon them.

 

[Shrimpador]

Football365 do a similar table on current form..

http://stats.football365.com/dom/ENG/D2/runin.html

Also shows us coming up slightly short.

But you never know, anything could happen in the next few games, Friday night is vital though. If we lose any games at home, it's game over.

Still, looking good for next season if we can strengthen in the summer.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

I wonder whether there is actually an argument for the bubble of hope regarding play-offs being pricked pretty quickly. That done, it would give us a number of matches to experiment with. For example, giving Scannell alonger run (if he doesn't already get one), bringing Herd in and blooding a few youths..................just a thought!

 

[sosman]

'Play-off charge' was language that was perhaps more appropriate for a month or so ago when not only were we showing a fine vein of form but we could also hope that two or three teams above us would crack..........that sadly has not been the case.

Yes, excellent work there.

Obviously the basis of the prediction is current form. Realistically, what we have to hope for is that we maintain our current form AND the appropriate clubs above us, as you put it, crack.

If they don't, then we need approx 76 points which means winning every game bar one, a substantial improvement even on our current form. Far more likely, I suggest, is that our current form fades and the best we can hope for is that we continue in the current vein. If that is the case, then it is possible that some of our comepetitors above us will fade and we can climb above them and grab a probably ill-deserved space.

Put simply, our best hope is that due to other team's errors, 76 points is not required, as it's very unlikely we'll get there. 72 maybe.

 

[Rayleigh boy]

its not uncommon for a club to seriously stumble at the last - we probabley need a couple to lose their way but .... it happens -

great that we are finishing strongly and will have a strong group of young contracted players for next year -

 

[Interpol Shrimper]

Don't forget the Palace scenario the year we won the L2 playoffs (they beat the Spammers at the MilStad).

They were something like 21st or 22nd on New Years Day 2005 and then went on a spectacular run-in for their remaining games, only dropping a handful of points. That momentum carried them through the lottery of the playoffs and they went up. Hard for us to consider considering the doom & gloom of late 2008 & early 2009, but until it's mathematically impossible for us to make the top 6*, you never know!

* - as others have already said, I fear what effect Constantine will have on a relegated Cheltenham side coming to the Hall on the final day, IF we need 3 points and hope other results go our way!

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

Football365 do a similar table on current form..

http://stats.football365.com/dom/ENG/D2/runin.html

Also shows us coming up slightly short.

But you never know, anything could happen in the next few games, Friday night is vital though. If we lose any games at home, it's game over.

Still, looking good for next season if we can strengthen in the summer.

I'm afraid it's even tougher than that..................if we lose or draw more than one of our remaining home or away matches, it's game over. I don't want to depress any of those that 'believe' but I could even imagine the possibility of a scenario where we reached the magical 76 points............
...............and found that it was still not enough.
I'm taking every match as they come....................whilst there's still any hope......................... In fact, I find it incredible that the season is still alive, considering our position at the end of January. I suppose that, financially this late run has helped us..............keeping attendances up.
If the dream does end sooner than later, would we expect to see a little slump in home attendances?

 

[RobM]

Play-offs won't happen. Simple as that.

 

[BoyWonder2]

Play-offs won't happen. Simple as that.

Exactly my thoughts. I said at the start of the season a mid-table finish, flirting with the play-offs, and a cup run would be a good season.

 

[RobM]

...and so by your definition - a good season. Not very good but good and I agree.

 

[BoyWonder2]

...and so by your definition - a good season. Not very good but good and I agree.

We lost 3 key men in the summer who have all played big parts in what Tilson has achieved with us, Mark Gower, Nicky Bailey and Darryl. Getting rid of Flavs was Tilson's decision, and he managed to replace him with Mildenhall so his not been much of a loss.

Bailey and Gower on the other hand haven't really been replaced this season, and when they have, its only been short term. To replace Gower we have tried HRK, Stanislas, Walker and Moussa on the left wing in spells, and to replace Bailey we have used Grant, JFC, Sawyer in there with Macca.

Its been Tilson's hardest season with us. How many loan players has he brought in this season? I imagine its possibly more this season then the other seasons put together. This has meant we have used more players this season then ever before and that doesn't help with consistency. Look at Villa, up until recently. They have used a core 18-20 players and are still competing with the "big four".

We have probably had more injuries this season, then in any other season under Tilson. Despite having Barnard, Freedman, Laurent, Revell, Walker, Robinson and Furlong as forwards during the season we have had games where only 1 was fit for selection.

Tilson has worked wonders this season. Ultimately, I think we will fall short of the play offs but this recent form shows we have a nucleaus of a good squad here.