Matt the Shrimp
aka Harry Potter
So, folks, what are your predictions for how things will look on May 7th?
You don't necessarily need to go into all the detail I've gone into below; you can just come up with a basic summary and/or choose the option in the poll which you think most closely reflects how you think it will go.
Here are my thoughts on how the seats will pan out - my prediction is in brackets:
Wales - 40 (Plaid - 4; LD - 5; Cons - 4; Ind - 1; Lab - 26)
Scotland - 59 (LD - 10; SNP - 6; Cons - 3; Lab - 40)
N. Ireland - 18 (DUP - 8; SF - 5; SDLP - 3; UUP - 1; Ind - 1)
England - 533 (Green - 1; Ind - 1; LD - 64; Lab - 175; Cons - 292)
Totals:
Cons - 299
Lab - 241
LD - 79
DUP - 8
SNP - 6
SF - 5
Plaid - 4
Ind - 3
SDLP - 3
Green - 1
UUP - 1
What I don't know - because this would represent complete uncharted territory - is whether Cameron would try to form a government; or whether he would be so far short of a working majority (realistically, he'd be about 35 short of where he would need to be) that a Lib-Lab pact would instead be given the chance to govern.
As for whether a Lib-Con coalition would work, I'm not sure - not least because I think the LDs would want (a) a guaranteed referendum on PR within the first 18 months; and (b) some senior cabinet posts (Vince for chancellor?). I'm not sure Cameron would be willing to give the LDs either.
So, over to you folks - gaze into those crystal balls... tell me what you think.
Matt
PS If you're wondering... I haven't left the BNP out maliciously. I don't think Griffin will beat Hodge; but I do think they may take the council - which, ultimately, is what they're really after.
You don't necessarily need to go into all the detail I've gone into below; you can just come up with a basic summary and/or choose the option in the poll which you think most closely reflects how you think it will go.
Here are my thoughts on how the seats will pan out - my prediction is in brackets:
Wales - 40 (Plaid - 4; LD - 5; Cons - 4; Ind - 1; Lab - 26)
Scotland - 59 (LD - 10; SNP - 6; Cons - 3; Lab - 40)
N. Ireland - 18 (DUP - 8; SF - 5; SDLP - 3; UUP - 1; Ind - 1)
England - 533 (Green - 1; Ind - 1; LD - 64; Lab - 175; Cons - 292)
Totals:
Cons - 299
Lab - 241
LD - 79
DUP - 8
SNP - 6
SF - 5
Plaid - 4
Ind - 3
SDLP - 3
Green - 1
UUP - 1
What I don't know - because this would represent complete uncharted territory - is whether Cameron would try to form a government; or whether he would be so far short of a working majority (realistically, he'd be about 35 short of where he would need to be) that a Lib-Lab pact would instead be given the chance to govern.
As for whether a Lib-Con coalition would work, I'm not sure - not least because I think the LDs would want (a) a guaranteed referendum on PR within the first 18 months; and (b) some senior cabinet posts (Vince for chancellor?). I'm not sure Cameron would be willing to give the LDs either.
So, over to you folks - gaze into those crystal balls... tell me what you think.
Matt
PS If you're wondering... I haven't left the BNP out maliciously. I don't think Griffin will beat Hodge; but I do think they may take the council - which, ultimately, is what they're really after.