Rochester & Strood by-election

[Uncle Leo]

Bit of analysis on the betting here. Essentially, the markets are swinging back towards UKIP now after a brief Conservative surge

http://www1.politicalbetting.com/in...kip-becomes-an-even-firmer-betting-favourite/

I think there are some more twists and turns to come, but it is certainly looking good for UKIP right now.

 

[Benfleet A1]

Because sometimes voting against something can be more effective than voting for something.

I call it lacking the courage of your own convictions. If you consider yourself a supporter of a particular party then you vote for them regardless otherwise your vote just gets marked against someone you wouldn't stamp on if they were on fire and becomes a false statistic. And that is what tactical voting really is.

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

I call it lacking the courage of your own convictions. If you consider yourself a supporter of a particular party then you vote for them regardless otherwise your vote just gets marked against someone you wouldn't stamp on if they were on fire and becomes a false statistic. And that is what tactical voting really is.

I think in that scenario the party you wouldn't stamp on if they were on fire would be the one you were voting against, and that is why you vote for your second choice. So I have often felt the need to vote against Conservatives rather than for Labour.

 

[Uncle Leo]

Interesting little snippet here in The Times' daily political email newsletter. UKIP debuting their new campaign system for R&S...

"Every party likes to harp on about how its expensive new voting software is going to be a "game-changer". So the three established players will be interested to learn that Ukip is now doing the same. It has spent two years on a campaign system that is being rolled out for the first time in Rochester. Built by a programmer for Lloyds investment bank and designed for use on iPads and smartphones, it combines socio-economic data with information from credit ratings agencies to target voters. It is said to be working well.

Ukip is of course very excited. But as the party has enjoyed good results with only clipboards and blank sheets of paper, the new system could be another important step on its journey towards professionalisation – and further success."

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...ies-select-local-businesswoman-kelly-tolhurst

Local businesswoman chosen as Tory candidate in R and S.

 

[callan]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...od--a-week-before-the-byelection-9858763.html

Seems strange that the bookies are already paying out.

 

[Uncle Leo]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...od--a-week-before-the-byelection-9858763.html

Seems strange that the bookies are already paying out.

Decent PR for Coral I guess on a market that is unlikely to have seen too much action. Not entirely sure I believe their line about 'several' bets of over a grand on UKIP to with (sic) the most seats in May.

It's never really developed in to the close battle that might have been anticipated. Thought the campaign might have been a bit more rowdy than this.

What will be interesting is how the voters of R&S go in May; polls have suggested - to no great surprise - that many people voting for UKIP now won't do so in the general election. For the meantime though, looks like two seats in the bag for UKIP.

 

[Uncle Leo]

Paddy Power go 2/5 that the Conservative Party win back R&S at the general election.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

Paddy Power go 2/5 that the Conservative Party win back R&S at the general election.

That's a foregone conclusion,IMO.

 

[Ricky Otto]

No, in a constituency like this the swing will probably be more Labour and Lib Dem to UKIP than Tory to UKIP. UKIP are the party of the working class.



It's an utterly bizarre strategy, particularly with the West Lothian question looming large. It's not even as if they're writing them off as they have particularly lurched to the left, instead they're just being inept in the comfort that 35% will see them home - providing Scottish MPs can still vote on English matters.

Is this sarcasm? A flat tax rate no matter what your earnings doesn't exactly back that up. UKIP are another party for the rich.

 

[Yorkshire Blue]

Is this sarcasm? A flat tax rate no matter what your earnings doesn't exactly back that up. UKIP are another party for the rich.

No, it's not sarcasm and I'm not saying that's who their policies support but rather that is where their support comes from.

 

[Ricky Otto]

No, it's not sarcasm and I'm not saying that's who their policies support but rather that is where their support comes from.

Fair enough, I misinterpreted you. Guess they are blinded by the "imigrants are the root of all our problems" line.

 

[callan]

Fair enough, I misinterpreted you. Guess they are blinded by the "imigrants are the root of all our problems" line.

Aren't all political parties trying to do something about immigration?

 

[Ricky Otto]

Aren't all political parties trying to do something about immigration?

All the major ones i'd imagine, it wasn't really my point though. I was alluding to working class people believing that UKIP's stance on immigration will solve the working mans problems when their policies are going to benefit the rich.

 

[callan]

All the major ones i'd imagine, it wasn't really my point though. I was alluding to working class people believing that UKIP's stance on immigration will solve the working mans problems when their policies are going to benefit the rich.

Have you considered posting a picture of a white van to illustrate how thick the working class are?

 

[Ricky Otto]

I hadn't, thanks

 

[Berrichonne shrimper]

Have you considered posting a picture of a white van to illustrate how thick the working class are?

As an owner of no less than 3 white vans I consider myself very thick.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

As an owner of no less than 3 white vans I consider myself very thick.

Rob Noxious owns one.He's pretty bright.

 

[Rob Noxious]

Rob Noxious owns one.He's pretty bright.

Not any more - we both would have failed the MOT.

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

Have you considered posting a picture of a white van to illustrate how thick the working class are?

Or posting a photo of two Tory MPs and then the same two people as UKIP MPs and claiming a political revolution - to illustrate how thick they think the whole of the electorate are?