Can we do it?

[mcshrimper]

With ten games to go I have tried to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of Southend’s promotion push.

Strengths
We are six points clear from second spot and seven clear from third place.

In comparison to our closest rivals the Shrimpers have an arguably ‘easier’ run-in.

Swansea and Col Ewe are in the semi-final stage of the LDV, with one going to Cardiff for the final.  Extra games equal tiredness and a greater likelihood of gaining injuries and suspensions.  The LDV finalist may take their eye slightly off the ball (ala us last year).  Southend have no distractions.

Col Ewe and Brentford’s games in hand are all away fixtures.

Col Ewe have now entered ‘wobble stage’ which was inevitable after their 20 game unbeaten run.

Out of their remaining games the Shrimpers have 6 home and 4 away games.  
Huddersfield have 4 home and 6 away.
Barnsley have 4 home and 6 away.
Swansea have 5 home and 5 away
Col Ewe have 4 home and 7 away
Brentford have 5 home and 8 away

Many see Brentford as the danger team considering their 3 games in hand.  They have still to play Col Ewe, Barnsley and Swansea.  Plus they are now facing a fixture ‘pile-up’ meaning two games per week for several weeks.  IMO they will drop points due to this.

The Shrimpers currently have the best goals difference in the league, worth an extra point.

Southend can draw on their experience from last year in league two, bearing in mind we were in a similar position (sort of) and ended up in the play-offs lottery.

Almost all prediction tables I have seen have Southend first or second.  These tables are not just Shrimpers fans but supporters of other clubs also.

We beat Col Ewe without Gray, Spinner, Cole and Bentley – most of who are regular first team players.  Bentley and Gray should be fit very soon.

Weaknesses
We have a relatively small squad with no reserve keeper.  Injuries and suspensions could hinder our hopes of promotion.

Complacency could be a key factor and could cause a ‘Col Ewe Style’ wobble.  If we are to go up we must keep our feet firmly on the ground and take nothing for granted.  

Southend are top of the league – other teams may raise their game against us.  Lower league teams (most of our remaining home fixtures are against these teams) may simply play for a point with eleven men behind the ball, ala Walsall.  We struggle to get points against teams who employ these tactics.

Gutts has picked up 9 yellows and will face a few games suspended, unless he can keep out of trouble until the second Sunday in April (I think?).  Our own wobble earlier in the season seemed to coincide with Gutts absence.  Maybe tie his hands behind his back to stop him pushing people?

We have still to play Swansea and Barnsley away from home.

Most bookies now predict Southend to go up.  Now, if they are as accurate at the end of the season as they were at the start, we could be in trouble!

We are Southend United – until it’s a mathematical certainty and we have a nice ‘P’ or even better ‘C’ beside our name at the top of League 1, I’m not going to be celebrating anything or counting any chickens.


All things considered, I’m sure that any team in this league would gladly swap places with us.


UP THE SHRIMPERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[* ORM *]

I've already started counting chickens. Look what happened when I thought about where Col Ewe would finish:

 

[RobB11]

i get a shiver down my spin every time i think about promotion to the championship, i'm not counting any chickens but barring a big **** up by the team it looks as though we will be in the championship next season. We are in dream land, two years ago we were in danger of dropping out of the league altogether and now it looks like we will be travelling to such awesome places like the Stadium of Light next season, our town deserves a championship football team, the players deserve it and so do the fans.
UP THE BLUES!

 

[keefmoon]

I'm trying not to analyse things too much.
Personally I think as much as Brentford was a downer Saturday was a great confidence boost for our side, and let's face it, more or less the whole side breeds off confidence (freddy is the best example...he can be very poor when he's not in the mood actually, but on fire when he's been banging them in, i.e. now)
What needs to be said though, is despite it being an Essex derby, we played a side that are off form and on the day probably one of the poorest I've seen all season. And we will face much better than that on a few occasions before the end of the season.
To be honest, it's all about the next 2 games. They are winnable games (as was Walsall). If we can come through those with 6 points I personally think we can start putting the champagne on ice as we would have turned over the banana skin teams.

 

[RobB11]

we can do it and i believe we WILL do it!

 

[hexagon_sun]

If we can take 7 or more points from the next 3 games I'll start believing we can do it, particularly if Brentford drop points to Barnsley and Swansea. April 1st could be a big day in the promotion race - Brentford at Col Ewe and Barnsley at Huddersfield. The top 6 still looks too close for comfort to me right now though.

 

[mcshrimper]

Fridays game against Scunthorpe is a massive match.  On Saturday Barnsley are playing Brentford which gives us another opportunity to stretch the automatic promotion gap.  Also, I think Scunthorpe's Billy Sharp who's knocked in around 20 goals this season is still injured.

I forgot to mention under the Strengths column that we have the excellent management duo of Tilly & Brush - so feck off Sunderland before you even start  

 

[Firestorm]

The end of next week should see things a little clearer
We have Scunny at home and MK away

Huddersfield have Hartlepool away and Rotherham at home

Barnsley go to Brentford and Hartlepool

Swansea are at home to Walsall and Brentford

Brentford have Yeovil Away, Barnsley at Home and Swansea away

If we win the next two the I feel that we will have least dropped another one of the chasing teams.

Col U have Oldham and Swindon and I think that they may well only ppick up one point from those 2

 

[Jam_Man]

Other fixtures certainly mean theres going to be points dropped elsewhere, we just need to ensure we keep our destiny in our own hands by beating Scunthorpe. (Good news if Sharp is indeed out).

Its superb we got wins against Chesterfield and Col U as to be honest I would have been happy with a point at each.

Out of the last 4 games with 3 being away I would have been satisfied with 6 points but we got 7 .

Every game now is going to be extremely tense and just hope the team can relax enough to play well and not to get frustrated by teams who come to Roots Hall for a draw.

 

[RobM.]

I reckon Swansea will win both.....

 

[canveyshrimper]

The equation for us is 6 wins from 10 games, 85 points which i think will be good enough.

 

[Interpol Shrimper]

Quote[/b] (canveyshrimper @ Mar. 07 2006,12:10)]The equation for us is 6 wins from 10 games, 85 points which i think will be good enough.

For automatics or champions?

 

[Jam_Man]

Lets hope Walsall are as hard to beat for them as they were for us and Col U.

Good thing about Swansea is they dont seem to be able to kill games and have been stuttering. A draw vs Brentford would be nice.