Form of the 6 Promotion contenders (Part 2)

[Smiffy]

By my calculations, in the 7 seasons since we last got promoted from League 2 (04/05) the average points required for:

3rd = 82 points
7th = 71 points

We currently have 64 points. So I think another couple of wins and a couple of draws will see us in the play-offs no sweat. We will manage that surely?...

But. Looking at last seasons table around the same time. The current 3rd spot this season has quite a few more points than 3rd spot last season. So I think the average of 82 points will be a tad higher this season for 3rd spot. Perhaps 83 or 84 points. Taking that into consideration, that leaves us needing probably 20 points from the last 30 to guarantee automatic promotion. Or 6 wins and a couple of draws from 10 games. Hmm, a tall order on current form I feel.

On that basis, I just cannot see us doing it the easy way. Play-off's?....a shoe in I think. It will take a massive turn-around in form for it to be anything other than that though I feel. Let's hope we can find some form and quickly, as I for one don't want the added drama of the play-off's this season.

I'll be keeping the Sat 12th and Sat 19th May free though...

 

[C C Csiders]

By my calculations, in the 7 seasons since we last got promoted from League 2 (04/05) the average points required for:

3rd = 82 points
7th = 71 points

We currently have 64 points. So I think another couple of wins and a couple of draws will see us in the play-offs no sweat. We will manage that surely?...

Only just by my reckoning, and that will include squeaky backsides and transistor radios pressed against ears on the last day of the season.

 

[Beefy]

I don't believe in points targets (although they're a nice indicator so thanks Smiffy). We just need to get ahead, and stay ahead of the team in third.

 

[blue79]

Which is similar to what I tried to say last night. But certain posters go OTT and as a result misunderstand.

 

[Beefy]

I'd suggest that if numerous people are misunderstanding your posts all the time then that says more about you than it does about them.

However, on the point of misunderstanding, you've been spamming my inbox and this forum for the last twelve hours with examples of how you've been right about things to somehow prove a point to me. But I never said anything about whether you're right or not.

 

[Jam_Man]

For me a pointless thread. the past is the past . Who knows what'll happen in the run-in . take the games one by one and see what happens. You might as well believe in the woman with the crystal ball at the fare. The past form doesn't necessarily dictate whats going to happen in the near future. each game is on a different day etc.

Strange viewpoint.

Football isn't random, teams that have won 5 games in a row are more likely to win than a team that's lost 5 in arow.

You can't be accurate when trying to predict results but it gives a decent overview.

 

[bluebrian]

Which is similar to what I tried to say last night. But certain posters go OTT and as a result misunderstand.

B79 - You need to calm yoiurself down mate and stop all these childish responses you keep making. Just relax and enjoy the forum for what it is. There used to be a contributor called Irate Ian on here - he was very knowledgeable and raised some very good points but he allienated himself because of his style of posting and his argumentative and defensive ways. Be careful because it looks to me as the same is happening to you. #justsaying

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

By my calculations, in the 7 seasons since we last got promoted from League 2 (04/05) the average points required for:

3rd = 82 points
7th = 71 points

We currently have 64 points. So I think another couple of wins and a couple of draws will see us in the play-offs no sweat. We will manage that surely?...

But. Looking at last seasons table around the same time. The current 3rd spot this season has quite a few more points than 3rd spot last season. So I think the average of 82 points will be a tad higher this season for 3rd spot. Perhaps 83 or 84 points. Taking that into consideration, that leaves us needing probably 20 points from the last 30 to guarantee automatic promotion. Or 6 wins and a couple of draws from 10 games. Hmm, a tall order on current form I feel.

On that basis, I just cannot see us doing it the easy way. Play-off's?....a shoe in I think. It will take a massive turn-around in form for it to be anything other than that though I feel. Let's hope we can find some form and quickly, as I for one don't want the added drama of the play-off's this season.

I'll be keeping the Sat 12th and Sat 19th May free though...

This follows exactly what I said above............two points a game for automatic promotion. Note also how QUICKLY (and virtually impossible) that becomes, if we drop points against Hereford and Aldershot!

 

[blue79]

Which is what I'm saying. You can't accurately predict future results going by whats gone on in the past. Either they go with form or form is turned on its head. whereas beefy doesn't believe in points targets I said I don't place mucxh emphasis on form for reasons stated.

 

[Beefy]

B79 - You need to calm yoiurself down mate and stop all these childish responses you keep making. Just relax and enjoy the forum for what it is. There used to be a contributor called Irate Ian on here - he was very knowledgeable and raised some very good points but he allienated himself because of his style of posting and his argumentative and defensive ways. Be careful because it looks to me as the same is happening to you. #justsaying

Great point. And this place is poorer for not having Irate Ian around. As it is for not having Captain Birdseye and even Interpol/Glasgow Shrimper around.

My last point on this, blue79 - I'm sorry if you think I'm getting at you (an impression I'm definitely getting). We're all Southend fans and we're all on here for similar reasons (boredom at work :smile: ). There's no reason we should be getting at eachother.

 

[blue79]

Ok beefy glad you said that. last night I wasn't knocking the treasurer's thread just that I don't think it helps much in the remaining games as I said above. I don't want to get at each other either so is it ok to call a truce.

 

[Paul Shrimper]

No thread is pointless, and this one gives us an interesting insight as to how are rivals are doing without us having to do the spade work. Cheers Ex TT.

The only pointless thread is the one not written. Anybody and everybody is entitled to their views and not everybody will agree. That is why some of us cheer on ALL of our players and others criticise Gilbert as soon as he steps onto the field.

I believe we will still sneak into the auto places, and will hopefully be proved correct.

 

[blue79]

Good post Paul.

 

[Hawkwell Blue]

Hopefully the only pointless thing about this will be all the teams around us. :smile:

 

[Paul Shrimper]

Hopefully the only pointless thing about this will be all the teams around us. :smile:

And so say all of us!!!

 

[Napster]

Pointless, that's a great quiz show.

 

[canveyshrimper]

Pointless, that's a great quiz show.

Not as good as Eggheads. :smile:

 

[Paul Shrimper]

Not as good as Eggheads. :smile:

More likely to be "The Chase" !!

 

[OldBlueLady]

Pointless, that's a great quiz show.

It is indeed, though they do get some right weirdos on........!

 

[Bratislava Blue]

I know that it has been a frustrating time of late giving away goals in the last 10 minutes. But I've been comparing the current top 10 who I believe are the ones that will be involved in the final 7 places.

As most of you will be aware Gillingham have thrown away 16 points in the last 10 minutes compared to our 7.The top 3 have all dropped only 2 sadly, whereas Crawley have dropped 6 also and Oxford 5. The tightest team in the final 10 minutes is Cheltenham. They have lost only 1 point in those final nail biting match periods

We'd still only be 2nd.....5 points behind Swindon and 1 point above Gillingham, 3 points ahead of 4th place Torquay and 7 pts above 8th placed Oxford

So despite everyones disgust at the last minute leveller on Saturday. How much different would our season really be if we had kept our points....

I'm sure there'd be the critics on the board...:stunned: