Brexit negotiations thread

[yogi bear up the cagire]

I'll take that as NO!

 

[MK Shrimper]

I'll take that as NO!

Of course not. The Chequers deal has no chance of getting through Parliament or the EU.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

Of course not. The Chequers deal has no chance of getting through Parliament or the EU.

Not only that, you'd have to be daft to believe Tory austerity is over too.


https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-45740427

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

Not only that, you'd have to be daft to believe Tory austerity is over too.


https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-45740427

That's another kettle of fish! What I was thinking is that the next two weeks are possibly critical in knowing whether a deal is going to be possible. Whether that deal (if there is one) gets through parliament is, of course, another thing. Providing the EU stick, as they have said, to their broad principles, I think that will have a slightly easier ride.

 

[Yorkshire Blue]

Meanwhile Trump threatens a no deal and at the last minute Canada and Mexico fold and give the US a better deal, which will create more jobs in the US.

Forget what you think of Trump but it proves we need a Business man/ woman rather than career lame ducks from Westminster.

We spend £300b with the EU. They spend £200b with GB.....Any one in Business knows The Uk have the best hand.

How much does the US spend in Mexico?

How much does Mexico spend in the US?

@rigsby Have you had any joy yet in finding spending figures to find out if we are Mexico or US in our negotiations with the EU?

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

That's another kettle of fish! What I was thinking is that the next two weeks are possibly critical in knowing whether a deal is going to be possible. Whether that deal (if there is one) gets through parliament is, of course, another thing. Providing the EU stick, as they have said, to their broad principles, I think that will have a slightly easier ride.

Indeed.The Brexit countdown is going to be complicated enough -that's for sure. https://www.theguardian.com/politic...tdown-after-tory-conference-what-happens-next

However,I suspect it's going to be Tory austerity which will finish May's government-unless the purse strings are relaxed in pretty short order.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-45779663

Brexit boosts the case for Scottish independence.So that's one positive side effect then.

 

[rigsby]

So turns out we don’t have to panic about any deals. We can have a simple agreement to keep the same terms whilst we sort out new ones.

Sort of thing the most first term students on Business studies could come up with.....Another blow for project fear.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

So turns out we don’t have to panic about any deals. We can have a simple agreement to keep the same terms whilst we sort out new ones.

Sort of thing the most first term students on Business studies could come up with.....Another blow for project fear.

..............and during that time, would the UK have the liberty to strut the world (and the universe) to sign up all these wonderul trade deals? If that's not the case I would imagine a large number of Tory Brexiters won't be very happy.

 

[pottster]

Junckers is now saying we can have a deal by the end of the year which sounds promising although depends what's in the deal!

 

[MK Shrimper]

Junckers is now saying we can have a deal by the end of the year which sounds promising although depends what's in the deal!

And it has to be agreed by Parliament.

 

[pottster]

And it has to be agreed by Parliament.

That sounds fair enough and I would expect any deal to get parliaments approval. But it looks like the eu are coming round to deal now

 

[MK Shrimper]

That sounds fair enough and I would expect any deal to get parliaments approval. But it looks like the eu are coming round to deal now

Will the Hard Brexiters be happy? Will Labour be happy, the SNP? Its far from cut & dried.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

Will the Hard Brexiters be happy? Will Labour be happy, the SNP? Its far from cut & dried.

The SNP made it quite clear yesterday that their 35 MP's would vote against and Labour have insisted that any deal pass their 6 tests.

It seems to me that the best chance the Tories have to get their Brexit deal through Parliament will be to peel off any Labour doubters who are willing to vote against a three line whip. Doubt if there'll be that many.

 

[Spaceman Spiff]

Clearly, for me, reading the media the numbers in parliament line up against any deal being passed. However, that doesn’t mean a deal won’t be passed. This is why the wording of any agreement is so important. Views on this are deeply held by parliamentarians and, in that those can be expressed openly (whether we agree or disagree with specific views) demonstrates that we have an effective parliamentary system that allows a range of views. It’s been called ‘chaos’ and ‘war’ and all sorts of other things. But I am much more comfortable with open disagreement than I would be if there was an SNP-style iron fist on any view within a party which does not toe the official line. Views should be - and are - more of a kaleidoscope than black or white, particularly on complex issues.

I would say that if something is to be passed in Parliament, it is most likely to be because some of the conservatives on the harder edges of the leave or remain debate, but probably not the most extreme of either, may be persuaded to back a deal or at least not vote against it. The more ardent leavers of the Labour Party exactly the same - if they don’t vote against them the numbers could tip enough to pass a deal. But how it is worded is crucial to the extent to which this is achievable.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

We may start to get some answers soon. Really difficult to know how this is going to work out. For me there still seems an unbridgable gap between the two sides on important issues. How much is it that the EU are talking up a deal because they REALLY want one? ............we shall see! Of course the wording is going to be important but are people going to accept a fudge of an agreement, with many questions still unanswered..........just delayed???

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-45824554

Makes you wonder if that billion quid bribe Mrs May paid off the DUP with was really worth it.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

May's Friday problem appears to be agreeing with the EU some kind of 'temporary' customs union with no definite leaving date. Apparently Leadsom and McVey considering their positions if this is agreed.

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...actions-for-businesses-and-other-stakeholders


This is advice that the government are issuing to UK businesses in the event of No Deal Brexit. The advice is essentially 'if your business is mainly with the EU then move to the EU'.

When Boris Johnson said '**** business' I didn't realise that would become government policy.

Is this the version of Leave people were voting for?

'UK companies and limited liability partnerships that have their central administration or principal place of business in an EU member state may wish to consider whether they need to restructure to satisfy the requirements for incorporation in that EU member state'

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

It would indeed make a cracking fictional drama, yet this is real and people's lives and futures depend on the outcome. Is this the week of the final episode...........or are we going to be left hanging on for a second series?
Is an agreement far or very close as some seem to suggest? Will the cabinet provide a united front on Tuesday or will there be resignations? How will May be received as the pre-banquette entertainment on Wednesday? Will this story EVER end and.............what will I do with my life , if it does?
Apparently one Tory MP likened May's problem to that of a chess player on the brink of defeat after a very long game in which she had been slowly and progressively outfoxed. “Whichever move she makes now, she gets forced further into the corner. She has tried everything. Unless I am missing something, there is no other move left on the board.”
On the face of it the problem may simply boil down to, how do you define the time limitation to any future customs union (to please the home market) without, at the same time, defining a time limit (to please the EU)? I reckon some kind of wording will be adopted, which will leave the final text open to interpretation............anyway, let's assume that, otherwise we can't move on.........then the REALLY intruiging, number crunching stuff begins. A look through the Sunday papers gives us a flavour of what to expect.
Well, the Sunday Times and Telegraph illustrate the problems May faces from the Brexiters as Davis incites rebellion in the Cabinet against the 'Holy Grail' of an agreement.........days (hours) away from being agreed. Just how many of them would have the balls to vote down what they would consider to be a bad agreement?...........quite a few by the look of it. The DUP are VERY angry and have VERY red (orange) lines that they dare the Tory Party to cross. It seems likely that, following their meeting, Arlene Foster won't be on Michel Barnier's Christmas card list. Then the Observer pops up with the story that, up to 15 Labour MP's are prepared to vote with the government so as to avoid a no deal Brexit..........how will that go down with the Labour hierachy? The deal, IF it comes about, almost certainly won't fulfil the (is it six?) (impossible) criteria to get official Labour support. How will the party react??? When it comes down to it, would those Labour MP's risk their political futures in backing the Tory government and maybe destroying Corbyn's dreams and hopes for a General Election?

Whatever people voted for back in June 2016............surely it wasn't for this chaos?

Meanwhilst, with eveyone's eye on the Brexit ball, fracking sneaks in through the back door. This clearly illustrates the Tory governments green credentials and one could have the slightly more sympathy with it (which I don't) if prospecting had been given the go ahead in Oxfordshire, Bucks, Berkshire and Surrey, rather than 'up north' where they all vote Labour anyway........don't they?
Finally, this Jerusalem Jez dreams about..............the General Election where he (dreams) will be swept into power to replace the hapless Tories. It really beggars belief that with the totally incompetent shambles of a goverment we have, they have actually INCREASED their lead over Labour to four points in the latest poll! https://www.theguardian.com/politic...oint-lead-over-labour-despite-brexit-troubles
Surely any affective opposition, given the circumstances, should be streets ahead of the government at this conjuncture. Can anyone suggest why that is not the case???