Brexit negotiations thread

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...ament-christmas-eu-irish-border-a8620321.html

Am I understanding this correctly? May wants to propose a vote in the Commons on the Brexit withdrawal agreement and an outline of our future trading agreement with the EU, before Christmas. Only problem, nothing has been sorted and we have to have confidence that she won't agree terms "at any costs." Who on earth is going to agree to that, given May's track record.............. the madness continues!

she is what is commonly known as a bell end

 

[Spaceman Spiff]

It’s amazing (not very) how people jump to conclusions when they’ve pretty much made up their minds to be critical beforehand.

You have to scroll down to read ALL of the article, including the bit after the annoying advert, where it is clear that the aim is to conclude an exit agreement, future trading relationship, get EU Council approval for the lot and then put it to a vote in the Commons by Christmas.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

It’s amazing (not very) how people jump to conclusions when they’ve pretty much made up their minds to be critical beforehand.

You have to scroll down to read ALL of the article, including the bit after the annoying advert, where it is clear that the aim is to conclude an exit agreement, future trading relationship, get EU Council approval for the lot and then put it to a vote in the Commons by Christmas.

If you read my opening sentence, I did use the caveat, "Am I understanding this correctly?" I thank you for your precision..............and the answer to my question would appear to be NO. I should have read the whole article as you suggested..........I stand corrected. It may amaze you that people who oppose your views can admit they are, at times perhaps wrong. Of course that doesn't in any way change my view that Brexit is total madness, especially the way we have gone about it.

 

[Spaceman Spiff]

That doesn’t amaze me, I have full confidence in your reasonableness in taking on board a clarification YBUTC

 

[Benfleet A1]

Ironically we could end up like Venezuela under May if she leads to us crashing out of the EU without adequate planning - the effects could be similar to the effects of the US sanctions on Venezuela.

I don't know what's worse, the stated scernaio or someone actully liking it.

 

[Bielzibubz]

Ironically we could end up like Venezuela under May if she leads to us crashing out of the EU without adequate planning - the effects could be similar to the effects of the US sanctions on Venezuela.

Your serious aren't you? Oh my, that is possibly one of the most OTT remarks I've ever seen on here, and that's saying something.

Get a bloody grip people. Leave your partisan politics at the front door and use a modicum of common sense and see through the bull**** from both sides.

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

Your serious aren't you? Oh my, that is possibly one of the most OTT remarks I've ever seen on here, and that's saying something.

Get a bloody grip people. Leave your partisan politics at the front door and use a modicum of common sense and see through the bull**** from both sides.

don't get over excited love it's supposed to be exaggeration. Those that think they can shore up the Tory government by mentioning Venezuela as often as possible are convincing no one. The exaggerated point though is that US sanctions are an extreme restriction of trade and the current UK government are heading for a no deal Brexit without any tangible planning for it and that is self imposed restriction of trade.

 

[Bielzibubz]

Absolutely no hint of exaggeration in your original post but OK, if you say so.

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

Absolutely no hint of exaggeration in your original post but OK, if you say so.

Some Swiss guy made a prediction about UK turning into Venezuela - which is a preposterous thing to say. I replied by making a prediction about UK turning into Venezuela - which is a preposterous thing to say.

That's the context. We were both exaggerating.

 

[Holy Joe]

Couple of car part factories closing, one factor is Brexit uncertainty - this **** is getting real..... https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-46110825

 

[Spaceman Spiff]

don't get over excited love it's supposed to be exaggeration. Those that think they can shore up the Tory government by mentioning Venezuela as often as possible are convincing no one. The exaggerated point though is that US sanctions are an extreme restriction of trade and the current UK government are heading for a no deal Brexit without any tangible planning for it and that is self imposed restriction of trade.

There isn’t really a need to shore up the Conservative Government. They will be here a while, mark my words

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

There isn’t really a need to shore up the Conservative Government. They will be here a while, mark my words

Do or die depending on the Brexit outcome I expect.

 

[Spaceman Spiff]

Do or die depending on the Brexit outcome I expect.

On that basis, ‘do’ will win out

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

There isn’t really a need to shore up the Conservative Government. They will be here a while, mark my words

You honestly think they'll go the full term until 2022?

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

On that basis, ‘do’ will win out

How do you envisage a Brexit deal that will be acceptable to May, ERG, soft Brexiters and EU? How do you think that will look and is it miles away from what May is offering up now?

My theory is not based on party politics but practicalities, she only has a Parliamentary majority with the DUP and I can't envisage a deal that will be acceptable to the UK and EU Parliaments.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

Bit of a farce that polling really, as highlighted by John Curtice several times. The phrasing of the questions produced the answers you would expect. However the biggest issue was the idea that this online survey by Survation of 20,000 people showed an overall swing to remain. Online polling tends to disproportionately reach young, student, left wing respondents and reaches gradually less and less people as ages rise over 30 (people have kids, busy lives or are just not social media junkies as they get older, proportionally speaking). I would say that the very fact that this kind of survey was so close demonstrates the exact opposite of that claimed by C4 and repeated across media outlets today. If there had been a huge swing to remain, this particular polling method should be showing a massive margin of victory for remain. It isn’t.

Caught up with the programme late last night.Most psephologists (and certainly John Curtice) would tell you that the majoriry of polling companies use somewhere between 400 or 1000 people in their samples. So a sampling size of 20,000 is very large indeed and likely to produce extremely accurate results.

Your conclusions about online polling and the Survation survey are not only erroneous.They're laughable.They merely serve to give an insight into your own particular bias.

Some thoughts.

Nigel Farage further pollutes the atmosphere of British politics every time he appears on our TV screens.

I was interested to see the statistic that 69% of the population apparently have no objection to some freedom of movement of labour in Europe.Incidentally,people (like my wife and I) who spent most of their professional lives working in another EU state,rather than the one they were born in,represent something like 2/3 % of the population of any EU member state.Statistically speaking,that is hardly a significant figure.

 

[Spaceman Spiff]

TUIB, I’m not biased - although I do have views like anyone else. I also have knowledge about quantitative methods, sampling, surveying and so on. My observations about online polling and Survation are neither wrong nor erroneous they represent trends in polling results, and Survation polling in particular, in terms of who they statistically reach relatively more frequently and how that flows through to outcomes.

 

[MK Shrimper]

Sorry Barna, but the poll was full of holes and as much as I want the madness to end, it was a completely pointless TV show.

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

Sorry Barna, but the poll was full of holes and as much as I want the madness to end, it was a completely pointless TV show.

I think the polls were similar to those before the 2016 referendum. Lots of Remainers are obsessed with a 'People's Vote' but there is no guarantee of the outcome of that (I'm a Remainer and spend way more time arguing on twitter with Remainers rather than Leavers). What is a much more likely route to stopping Brexit is May not being able to get an agreeable deal and no deal being rejected by both Parliaments.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

TUIB, I’m not biased - although I do have views like anyone else. I also have knowledge about quantitative methods, sampling, surveying and so on. My observations about online polling and Survation are neither wrong nor erroneous they represent trends in polling results, and Survation polling in particular, in terms of who they statistically reach relatively more frequently and how that flows through to outcomes.

I also have knowledge about statistics.Having done two courses in the subject,one at undergraduate ,the other at postgraduate level.It would appear that we agree to disagree.

Edit.But as I said, you're quite wrong about the sample size in the Survation poll.It's "statistically significant."

Quite frankly, I don't trust anyone who asserts they're "not biased". I'm quite happy to admit my own left-wing bias.That's just how I see the world.