The EU Referendum - What are the facts, Where are the facts

[RHB]

Both Boris Johnson and Michael Howard suggested this might be an option when they came 'out.'

However, I would think most of the outers would expect us to make a clean break if that is the result of the vote. After all the Referendum is not part of a poltical game of chicken with the EU.

Boris has since rescinded that opinion, I'm not sure about Michael Howard. Until the referendum stuff came up I though he had dropped off the perch ages ago.

 

[callan]

Do you mean in favour of leaving? If the referendum vote was 90/10 in favour of leaving then we would leave.

Im not convinced by this, the EU have a history of not accepting referendum votes....they just tell people to vote again until the desired vote comes in.

If the UK were to leave it would be a seismic shift in their power, as once the door is open others may follow,

A lot of EU economies are dependant on UK trade, the EU could interfere and play hard ball but it would be cutting off their nose to spite their face.

The euro and ever closer Union play a major part in the EU's ambitions, how if we were to stay does that affect us?

 

[superblue24]

As misinformation goes I think this is the winner. If we vote to leave then we leave. The Conservative government would not survive a leave vote and we then stay.

I know you're the deluded gullible type (you were convinced Miliband would win the election for one), but try not to believe everything you read.

The government will not allow us to leave the EU, they just wont. At worst/best it'll lead to further negotiations with the EU probably ending in a better deal and is somehow still tied to the EU.

I can't believe there is so much debate and hot air over this "waste of time" topic. Anyone with half a brain cell can tell that it's going to be an emphatic win for the "stay" camp, so no point in worrying about it or getting too excited.

 

[RHB]

Im not convinced by this, the EU have a history of not accepting referendum votes....they just tell people to vote again until the desired vote comes in.

If the UK were to leave it would be a seismic shift in their power, as once the door is open others may follow,

A lot of EU economies are dependant on UK trade, the EU could interfere and play hard ball but it would be cutting off their nose to spite their face.

The euro and ever closer Union play a major part in the EU's ambitions, how if we were to stay does that affect us?

I know you're the deluded gullible type (you were convinced Miliband would win the election for one), but try not to believe everything you read.

The government will not allow us to leave the EU, they just wont. At worst/best it'll lead to further negotiations with the EU probably ending in a better deal and is somehow still tied to the EU.

I can't believe there is so much debate and hot air over this "waste of time" topic. Anyone with half a brain cell can tell that it's going to be an emphatic win for the "stay" camp, so no point in worrying about it or getting too excited.

But Dave has said 'NO' as recently as late February 2016. Surely you're not suggesting I shouldn't take any notice of our Prime Minister speaking in public. Now what will I do?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35667120

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

I know you're the deluded gullible type (you were convinced Miliband would win the election for one), but try not to believe everything you read.

The government will not allow us to leave the EU, they just wont. At worst/best it'll lead to further negotiations with the EU probably ending in a better deal and is somehow still tied to the EU.

I can't believe there is so much debate and hot air over this "waste of time" topic. Anyone with half a brain cell can tell that it's going to be an emphatic win for the "stay" camp, so no point in worrying about it or getting too excited.

I don't recall ever sticking my neck out on an outcome on the General Election. I invested some of my time in it but I don't recall being bullish about an outcome. So thanks for the insult but it's not accepted as it's not valid.


I agree that a stay vote is the most likely outcome so your theory that a leave vote won't be honoured is unlikely to be tested. That's a serious level of cynicism you've cultivated there though.


If you can't believe there is so much debate on here over this 'waste of time' topic then maybe don't post on this thread?

 

[maninasuitcase]

I know you're the deluded gullible type (you were convinced Miliband would win the election for one), but try not to believe everything you read.

The government will not allow us to leave the EU, they just wont. At worst/best it'll lead to further negotiations with the EU probably ending in a better deal and is somehow still tied to the EU.

I can't believe there is so much debate and hot air over this "waste of time" topic. Anyone with half a brain cell can tell that it's going to be an emphatic win for the "stay" camp, so no point in worrying about it or getting too excited.

The latest polls conducted by the Telegraph show a slight advantage for staying in. But remember, the pollsters were predicting a hung parliament in the general election. I doubt it will be an emphatic win for the stay crowd.

I certainly don't think it is a waste of time topic as I believe if we leave the EU it will have a detrimental effect on the man in the street.

 

[RHB]

The latest polls conducted by the Telegraph show a slight advantage for staying in. But remember, the pollsters were predicting a hung parliament in the general election. I doubt it will be an emphatic win for the stay crowd.

I certainly don't think it is a waste of time topic as I believe if we leave the EU it will have a detrimental effect on the man in the street.

Would it therefore mean a lessor or smaller suitcase for some?

 

[callan]

The latest polls conducted by the Telegraph show a slight advantage for staying in. But remember, the pollsters were predicting a hung parliament in the general election. I doubt it will be an emphatic win for the stay crowd.

I certainly don't think it is a waste of time topic as I believe if we leave the EU it will have a detrimental effect on the man in the street.

How so?

I can't think of one possible detrimental effect it will have to me or my family....Perhaps you would care to expand on this?

 

[callan]

But Dave has said 'NO' as recently as late February 2016. Surely you're not suggesting I shouldn't take any notice of our Prime Minister speaking in public. Now what will I do?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35667120

Cameron aside, there is little love for the EU in it's current guise even amongst the most ardent remain voters.

To me it should not be inconceivable that a vote out, could force more concessions, whatever they maybe.

The loss of the UK, to the EU represents a significant loss of income to them, that's before you get to how many other Countries may follow.

Cameron can say whatever he likes, if he loses this vote , I believe his position would become untenable and his resignation would swiftly follow (he's already said he won't serve a full term).

This would potentially open the door for the more moderate Leave politicians to pursue a different deal with the EU, rather than Camerons which seemed to be a deal that was for big corporations and banks.

The purpose of this referendum is too settle for a generation (and the Tory party) how we want our country to be...are any of us regardless of political creed happy with what we have politically, socially, democratically?

If the answer is no, then change has to start somewhere.

 

[maninasuitcase]

The latest polls conducted by the Telegraph show a slight advantage for staying in. But remember, the pollsters were predicting a hung parliament in the general election. I doubt it will be an emphatic win for the stay crowd.

I certainly don't think it is a waste of time topic as I believe if we leave the EU it will have a detrimental effect on the man in the street.

I will answer this when I get home Callan.

 

[RHB]

Cameron aside, there is little love for the EU in it's current guise even amongst the most ardent remain voters.

To me it should not be inconceivable that a vote out, could force more concessions, whatever they maybe.

The loss of the UK, to the EU represents a significant loss of income to them, that's before you get to how many other Countries may follow.

Cameron can say whatever he likes, if he loses this vote though, I believe his position would become untenable and his resignation would swiftly follow (he's already said he won't serve a full term).

This would potentially open the door for the more moderate Leave politicians to pursue a different deal with the EU, rather than Camerons which seemed to be a deal that was for big corporations and banks.

The purpose of this referendum is too settle for a generation (and the Tory party) how we want our country to be...are any of us regardless of political creed happy with what we have politically, socially, democratically?

If the answer is no, then change has to start somewhere.

I'm pretty much ok with the 'socially' bit at the moment. Politically I've lost a lot of faith in politicians, especially the career from University variety. And on the democracy front, for that to work better then people need to exercise their democratic right to vote a lot more than many do now. It's all well and good saying that voting is waste of time, no it's not. That's why I would always include and abstain with reasons box on the ballot paper. It is so very easy to take democracy for granted, but how would folk feel if we stopped being democratic, and that could include an armed forces coup. Gosh, that became a bit of a rant, but I feel better now.

 

[londonblue]

How so?

I can't think of one possible detrimental effect it will have to me or my family....Perhaps you would care to expand on this?

I can. You'll have to keep that other guy as your best friend.

 

[callan]

I'm pretty much ok with the 'socially' bit at the moment. Politically I've lost a lot of faith in politicians, especially the career from University variety. And on the democracy front, for that to work better then people need to exercise their democratic right to vote a lot more than many do now. It's all well and good saying that voting is waste of time, no it's not. That's why I would always include and abstain with reasons box on the ballot paper. It is so very easy to take democracy for granted, but how would folk feel if we stopped being democratic, and that could include an armed forces coup. Gosh, that became a bit of a rant, but I feel better now.

You may find this interesting.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/mar/09/war-generations-younger-voters-millennials

 

[RHB]

You may find this interesting.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/mar/09/war-generations-younger-voters-millennials

I found it typical gruaniad, a very difficult read. Far too many big words to embellish the article for the sake of it for me. No wonder the i is my paper of choice these days. Anyway, back to the content. There were some interesting messages there, but I'm not convinced there it is the sole domain of the young to be so brassed off. I think it is a far wider cross section of society than that.

 

[Gremlin]

Im not convinced by this, the EU have a history of not accepting referendum votes....they just tell people to vote again until the desired vote comes in.

My understanding is that the EU wouldn't be asked to accept the referendum vote. Instead an 'Out' result would see the UK then initiate the agreed process for a country exit. Have I misunderstood?

 

[callan]

My understanding is that the EU wouldn't be asked to accept the referendum vote. Instead an 'Out' result would see the UK then initiate the agreed process for a country exit. Have I misunderstood?

Not Quite.

The Eu may be asked to accept the vote, but in reality and historically they never have accepted a member states referendum decision that is negative towards their ambitions.

There is a basic assumption that should brexit occur it will be via the article 50 route, rather than repeal of our original membership.

Article 50 does allow for negotiation and even extension, so rather than a 2 year period of exit, it could be extended beyond that to whatever will suit both parties (the EU + UK).

The key here is of course what negotiations are on the table, and from what point of view you're negotiating, if there was common consensus amongst EU nations then pretty much anything and everything could potentially be agreed over any period of time.

The key to Brexit of course is crucially when you invoke article 50, as the period between securing a leave vote, and putting it into place is when the UK has the strongest bargaining chips should there be a desire for a different deal to that which Cameron brought back.

Despite Cameron's protestations about staying on and negotiating an exit, he would be very much the man that failed, and AAS has made some excellent arguments with regard trusting him to negotiate anything.

Bearing in mind with our refusal to Join the Euro, our current deal is very much one foot in / one foot out, and our membership / relationship with the EU is halfhearted at best, our decision to stay or go needs to based on the kind of country we want to be, rather than what we currently are.

I am not advocating that this is a route we should take, merely pointing out it is possible, however improbable other Zoners may view it

 

[callan]

I found it typical gruaniad, a very difficult read. Far too many big words to embellish the article for the sake of it for me. No wonder the i is my paper of choice these days. Anyway, back to the content. There were some interesting messages there, but I'm not convinced there it is the sole domain of the young to be so brassed off. I think it is a far wider cross section of society than that.

To be fair I read the Guardian purely from a point of view that is likely to put forward opinion that I am least likely to agree with.

I would agree that being brassed off, is not the preserve of an age group...but the disengagement amongst our young in terms of voting is alarming whatever their reasons.

 

[Yorkshire Blue]

I read earlier you wanted the EU to keep our Government's in check, who keeps the EU in check?

Our government.

Or at least that's the theory. Unfortunately our Parliament fails to hold our government to account for not holding the EU to account. So whilst wanting to leave the EU because it's not a great system the reality is that our own system is just as bad.

Our MEPs also need to do a better job, but UKIP's attendance record is disgraceful.

I think what it has highlighted, is how few facts there actually are.

There's an almost endless supply of opinion, but little in the way of hard evidence (not the fault of this thread).

I think for me what is important, is that many younger Zoners cannot remember anything pre EU, and the four cornerstones it created.

When we went into the EU (eec) it was as much a leap in the dark then as it will be if we come out now.

The thing is the world has changed so much since we went into the EEC any comparison between before and now is essentially irrelevant. Business is now transacted on an international scale that just wasn't conceivable when we went in. Harmonising regulations is therefore that much more important than when we were just a small island doing a bit of trade.

It use to be the case that if we wanted access to a market we just sent in the gunboats. That's, fortunately, no longer an option (sorry Mrs Blue) which is why we wanted to join the European trading block to get access to those markets in the first place. Those markets - not just EU, but all the countries the EU has trade agreements with and those which the EU are on course to get trade agreements with - are that much bigger and that much more important now. And to get the most trade, you need to work closer together. Manufacturers will be screwed if they make a product that complies with UK safety regulations but doesn't meet EU safety regulations so they can't sell it there. Far easier, far better, to get one set of criteria they have to comply with. Far easier then to get the US to agree that the single European standard meet US standards.

To be fair I read the Guardian purely from a point of view that is likely to put forward opinion that I am least likely to agree with.

I would agree that being brassed off, is not the preserve of an age group...but the disengagement amongst our young in terms of voting is alarming whatever their reasons.

Interestingly, the young are that much more internationalist and pro-Europe. It's the old gits like Cricko and yourself who are wanting us to withdraw and holding back the youngsters like me.

 

[Gremlin]

Not Quite.

The Eu may be asked to accept the vote, but in reality and historically they never have accepted a member states referendum decision that is negative towards their ambitions.

There is a basic assumption that should brexit occur it will be via the article 50 route, rather than repeal of our original membership.

Article 50 does allow for negotiation and even extension, so rather than a 2 year period of exit, it could be extended beyond that to whatever will suit both parties (the EU + UK).

The key here is of course what negotiations are on the table, and from what point of view you're negotiating, if there was common consensus amongst EU nations then pretty much anything and everything could potentially be agreed over any period of time.

The key to Brexit of course is crucially when you invoke article 50, as the period between securing a leave vote, and putting it into place is when the UK has the strongest bargaining chips should there be a desire for a different deal to that which Cameron brought back.

Despite Cameron's protestations about staying on and negotiating an exit, he would be very much the man that failed, and AAS has made some excellent arguments with regard trusting him to negotiate anything.

Bearing in mind with our refusal to Join the Euro, our current deal is very much one foot in / one foot out, and our membership / relationship with the EU is halfhearted at best, our decision to stay or go needs to based on the kind of country we want to be, rather than what we currently are.

I am not advocating that this is a route we should take, merely pointing out it is possible, however improbable other Zoners may view it

Interesting and comprehensive reply. Thanks.

I'm pretty sure Article 50 is the only 'clean way out but can you elaborate on the bit in bold please? I'm not sure whose desire you mean and why the deal Cameron has negotiated would matter if the public have voted Out. Are you suggesting our politicians would waste their time negotiating amendments to something the public had decided against having in the first place?

 

[callan]

Our government.

Or at least that's the theory. Unfortunately our Parliament fails to hold our government to account for not holding the EU to account. So whilst wanting to leave the EU because it's not a great system the reality is that our own system is just as bad.

Our MEPs also need to do a better job, but UKIP's attendance record is disgraceful.



The thing is the world has changed so much since we went into the EEC any comparison between before and now is essentially irrelevant. Business is now transacted on an international scale that just wasn't conceivable when we went in. Harmonising regulations is therefore that much more important than when we were just a small island doing a bit of trade.

It use to be the case that if we wanted access to a market we just sent in the gunboats. That's, fortunately, no longer an option (sorry Mrs Blue) which is why we wanted to join the European trading block to get access to those markets in the first place. Those markets - not just EU, but all the countries the EU has trade agreements with and those which the EU are on course to get trade agreements with - are that much bigger and that much more important now. And to get the most trade, you need to work closer together. Manufacturers will be screwed if they make a product that complies with UK safety regulations but doesn't meet EU safety regulations so they can't sell it there. Far easier, far better, to get one set of criteria they have to comply with. Far easier then to get the US to agree that the single European standard meet US standards.



Interestingly, the young are that much more internationalist and pro-Europe. It's the old gits like Cricko and yourself who are wanting us to withdraw and holding back the youngsters like me.

No one is arguing the world has changed, it will continue to do so.

I'm not fully following your argument, that we shouldn't want to leave the EU, as our own system is equally as bad.

Why would anyone want more bad?

You make an extremely romantic debate about trade, Gunboats and harmonisation, eu safety regulations, manufacturers being screwed, it's almost as though the European union invented the wheel and all the spokes within.

Except they didn't.

Lets break these down though;

Manufacturing - has the UK's manufacturing base shrank or enlarged since becoming members ?

Regulations - which is the higher standard, BSI or CE?

Trade - have the UK's trading levels with the EU become , better or worse since the year 2000?

Is the EU economy growing as fast as those economies outside of it?

Finally;

Cricko has told me to tell you that just because you look like Herr Flick from Allo, Allo...it does not make you an Internationalist.

He goes further by encouraging to you to throw off the shackles of the inward looking, outdated and not fit for purpose EU,
and become truly global in your out look.