New Stadium...different view

[Firestorm]

Thank you for giving a good measured response.
Couple of items which i would like to pick up on,Firstly the recent game against Leeds attracted around 8500 home fans more or less leaving around 1500 empty home seats available would there be any difference if the same game was played in the championship in the 22000 seater? My guess the potential crowd being around 13000?.

It was 11,274. which considering our capacity and seats aset aside for Segregation etc , was basically a full house and this for for a match between two teams on the bottom three.

 

[blue shrimp]

We could debate the size of stadium all day long,Will it be filled or become a white elephant the simple truth being no one really knows yet the smart money is probably on being half empty..As history suggests.

The one factor what everyone has overlooked..The build cost!!Truth being no company or bank will build/lend without excellent returns on their investment.The FF venture believed to be costing anywhere between 30 million and up to an eye watering 50 million..How will this huge pile of cash be repaid?I assume the football club will have to repay the monies borrowed?...Lets look at the lowest scale possible being the stadium costs 25 million and the interest rate is 5% the club will have to find 1.25 million per year AT LEAST!!..If crowds are packing into the stadium this figure on paper should not cause many problems as revenues will be able to service the amount,But what happens if the club does not attract the crowds or even if the club suffer relegation...How will the loan be repaid?

 

[GBJ]

Seeing as SS brought up The Ricoh Arena, i've done some researching, and it is very interesting reading. CCFC moved from 23k seater stadium (Highfield Road) into The Ricoh which holds 32k. They built a hotel there, a casino, a supermarket. It's not just RHCP that have performed there. Bryan adams, Bon Jovi to name a few. It also held a Under 21 England game. This is all possible at FF.

It was all state of the art and was supposed to generate the funds to fire Cov back into the Prem league, just the same as FF is meant to be our way of progressing, as everyone keeps saying.

Interesting how Coventry, with a bigger fanbase than us, pull in an average crowd of 16k people per week (50% stadium full), and are STILL no closer to hitting the top league, despite the revenue from the new stadium, big games, hotel, casino, concerts, Eng U21 games etc etc

 

[blue shrimp]

Seeing as SS brought up The Ricoh Arena, i've done some researching, and it is very interesting reading. CCFC moved from 23k seater stadium (Highfield Road) into The Ricoh which holds 32k. They built a hotel there, a casino, a supermarket. It's not just RHCP that have performed there. Bryan adams, Bon Jovi to name a few. It also held a Under 21 England game. This is all possible at FF.

It was all state of the art and was supposed to generate the funds to fire Cov back into the Prem league, just the same as FF is meant to be our way of progressing, as everyone keeps saying.

Interesting how Coventry, with a bigger fanbase than us, pull in an average crowd of 16k people per week (50% stadium full), and are STILL no closer to hitting the top league, despite the revenue from the new stadium, big games, hotel, casino, concerts, Eng U21 games etc etc

Good post,You forgot to mention the new stadium for Coventry nearly and could still send the club to the wall.

 

[GBJ]

Good post,You forgot to mention the new stadium for Coventry nearly and could still send the club to the wall.

true.......

 

[BLUEBLOOD]

Good post,You forgot to mention the new stadium for Coventry nearly and could still send the club to the wall.

Valid point, and apologies for my dismissal of you earlier without a proper response ..

I'll just add though that without a new stadium we will go to the wall

 

[Pubey]

I'd compare us to Swansea, Vetch Field was identical in size to Roots Hall. They didn't often sell it out when they were in the lower leagues.

Both Swansea and Southend have largish catchment areas, I'd say with a similar level of competition. Southend-West Ham is the same distance as Swansea-Cardiff.

Now Swansea have moved to the Liberty Stadium, with a capacity of 20,500. Last season they were excellent, they averaged 15,000 at home, and this season they've had gates of 14,000 and 16,000. Their highest attendance is over 19,000 for the League 1 promotion fight in 2005 against Yeovil.

They aren't looking so good this season, but that's due to management rather than lack of money, but if they are getting good gates well over 14,000 in the CCC after 3 seasons there... then we should be looking at a stadium of a comparable size

 

[GBJ]

I'll just add though that without a new stadium we will go to the wall

And let me add, that the new stadium, will not guarentee our survival

 

[blue shrimp]

It was 11,274. which considering our capacity and seats aset aside for Segregation etc , was basically a full house and this for for a match between two teams on the bottom three.

So around 9400 home fans attended,Assuming the club increased the fanbase by 25%(which is a big ask}potentially around 12000 home fans may attend such a big league fixture,Add away support at 2000 and my initial 14000 capacity would be sold out without any need for segregation because 4 sided grounds mean away fans are well catered for so to speak.

Would be interesting for the following possible championship fixtures against Blackpool,Scunthorpe and suchlike.

 

[Pubey]

And let me add, that the new stadium, will not guarentee our survival

maybe, but Blueblood's point is key... no new stadium will seal our fate.

 

[Crawliano]

If anyone had a crystal ball and could see where the club will be in 25 years time they would 1) be very rich and 2) be able to build a stadium to suit that need. However, we don't.

In planning the new ground RM et al would've employed a team of analysts whose job it is to plan effectively growth rates and forecast potential for the club to grow. Decisions on capacities etc would not have been decided on a whim. Besides this as has already been mentioned the cost difference of say an 18,000 ground and a 24,000 is (in the grand scheme of things) somewhat negligable, nobody is able to forecast how much the difference is but say if this extra cost was recouped after 10-20 "big games" (who knows what sort of pre season friendlies we could attract with our capacity?) we wouldn't need to worry about this short term empty seatage. Remember, they're building a home for the next 50+ years it's not a short term thing!

Just think, it will also give the club a lot of leverage to get a hell of a lot of school kids in (even if they gave away 3,000 tickets a week to schools etc) we can still get kids on board there's bums on seats!

 

[Sussex Shrimper]

Valid point, and apologies for my dismissal of you earlier without a proper response ..

I'll just add though that without a new stadium we will go to the wall

Absolutely.

I think it's unlikely we're going to reach any consensus on this topic. From my perspective the assertions that we don't have the potential to make use of a 22,000 seater stadium are unfounded; I believe in the club.

What really mystifies me is when many of the same posters who decry the stadium plans as overstretching ourselves then bemoan a lack of short termist transfer spending as a lack of ambition. FF could do things for the club that no player on a two or three year contract is ever going to.

 

[BLUEBLOOD]

maybe, but Blueblood's point is key... no new stadium will seal our fate.

Cheers mate, beat me to it .. surely its best to try and fail, than not try at all (to paraphrase some famous old saying or other)

 

[Firestorm]

Lets look at the lowest scale possible being the stadium costs 25 million and the interest rate is 5% the club will have to find 1.25 million per year AT LEAST!!..

The development at RH will offset some of the build cost , as will the sale of the residential units (67 units at 150K would realise 10 M )

 

[GBJ]

I'd compare us to Swansea, Vetch Field was identical in size to Roots Hall. They didn't often sell it out when they were in the lower leagues.

Both Swansea and Southend have largish catchment areas, I'd say with a similar level of competition. Southend-West Ham is the same distance as Swansea-Cardiff.

The distances are about the same, i'll agree with that, but the difference is, you either support Swansea or Cardiff. They are the only clubs around. Whereas, in our area (40/50 mile radius) we have to compete with big Prem teams like West Ham, Arsenal, Spurs, Chelsea, Fulham. Then there's the teams that get less crowds, but still more than us are still localish ie Charlton, Millwall, Palace, QPR. Then there are the teams that get the same/less than us; Col U, Orient, Brentford.

Anyway, point is, in Wales, there are only 2 teams to support. In England we have lots, and in our area we have to compete with some of the biggest.

Unfortunately

 

[Pubey]

So around 9400 home fans attended,Assuming the club increased the fanbase by 25%(which is a big ask}potentially around 12000 home fans may attend such a big league fixture,Add away support at 2000 and my initial 14000 capacity would be sold out without any need for segregation because 4 sided grounds mean away fans are well catered for so to speak.

Would be interesting for the following possible championship fixtures against Blackpool,Scunthorpe and suchlike.

it's not a big an ask...

(thanks to the excellent SUFCDB website)
Average home league attendance:

92/93 - 5,365
93/94 - 6,107
94/95 - 5,154
95/96 - 5,919
96/97 - 5,267
97/98 - 4,331
98/99 - 4,319
99/00 - 4,138
00/01 - 4,353
01/02 - 3,982
02/03 - 3,951
03/04 - 4,530
04/05 - 6,077
05/06 - 8,055
06/07 - 10,022
07/08 - 8,171
08/09 - 7,850
09/10 - 8,863

Playing decent football at a higher level (06/07) more than doubled our attendances when compared to the dark days in the basement. That average of over 10k in the CCC was limited by our stadium capacity, most games were pretty much sold out and the numbers are slightly down due to segregation and the numerous limited view/leg-room seats at RH.

 

[GBJ]

From my perspective the assertions that we don't have the potential to make use of a 22,000 seater stadium are unfounded; I believe in the club.

From my perspective the assertions that we DO have the potential to make use of a 22k seater stadium is nuts. I believe in the team. Not the board.

 

[Pubey]

The distances are about the same, i'll agree with that, but the difference is, you either support Swansea or Cardiff. They are the only clubs around. Whereas, in our area (40/50 mile radius) we have to compete with big Prem teams like West Ham, Arsenal, Spurs, Chelsea, Fulham. Then there's the teams that get less crowds, but still more than us are still localish ie Charlton, Millwall, Palace, QPR. Then there are the teams that get the same/less than us; Col U, Orient, Brentford.

Anyway, point is, in Wales, there are only 2 teams to support. In England we have lots, and in our area we have to compete with some of the biggest.

Unfortunately

I don't see a team 50 miles away as being direct competition for our fanbase. There are lots of people in Southend who support london teams (but not many STH's I'd expect), and I reckon a lot of them could be converted to Southend fans if they decide to support their local team who are competitive in the CCC. Also for youngsters growing up, we need to continue to tap into them and get them interested in Southend rather than wanting to watch Chelsea/Arsenal. if they can go to games every saturday with their dad or their mates, then it turns them into real fans of a team.. rather than supporting Chelsea and maybe only seeing them live a couple of times

 

[BLUEBLOOD]

From my perspective the assertions that we DO have the potential to make use of a 22k seater stadium is nuts. I believe in the team. Not the board.

And i think therein lies the problem gb .. you are letting your views of RM and probably more likely GK cloud your judgement of the bigger picture

Or perhaps it is my very faith in RM that is clouding mine

As mentioned previously, i think we're just gonna have to agree to disagree on this

 

[Crawliano]

if they can go to games every saturday with their dad or their mates, then it turns them into real fans of a team.. rather than supporting Chelsea and maybe only seeing them live a couple of times

Bingo, remember Jobson's "kid-a-quid" during the 90s? I know it was long ago now, but me and at least 10 mates would trek up from the island with our 40p Rovers or bunked train to watch 90 minutes of dross just cos it was a place to go make noise and shout at the opposing players, 15 years on and we've grown up but at least 75% of that group are still going and have been ever since. OK, we're from Canvey and therefore need our heads checking (PORT VALE, FORAPAAAAAND! LET'S GO) but imagine now, letting 14 year olds into the "singing section" for a quid each, playing a decent game in comparison to what we were doing back then, we'll grow don't worry...