What were we expecting?

[Matt the Shrimp]

Quote[/b] (southendpier @ Nov. 01 2006,13:15)]I believe you get lucky in cup runs maybe the odd game but the point of a league is that luck is minimal.  How can you be lucky, home and away for two seasons?  

We weren't lucky in League Two. If anything, we were unlucky - losing momentum at just the wrong time; picking up needless bookings and losing key players for important games...

League Two was a poor league with four pretty good sides in it when we got promoted. The rest were (to be frank) pretty sh*te - a dour Northampton town were perhaps the best of the play-off bunch; but Lincoln were hoofers and Macc Town weren't far behind.

That's proved by the fact that we went up last season, Swansea ought to have gone up last season but bottled it, and all of Swansea, Yeovil and Scunny are in the top 6 of League One this season.

So we had no, nor needed any, luck to get out of League Two. We deserved it.

But last season, after capitalising on a brilliant September & October (no luck there - just a fantastic run of results by a side riding the crest of a wave), we got lucky. We were lucky that Forest couldn't sort their act out, eventually sacking Megson. We were lucky that Swansea lost Lee Trundle to injury - thereby stopping their promotion charge in its tracks. We were lucky that Huddersfield have a pretty limited manager in Peter Jackson (sorry, I just don't rate him). We were lucky that Gary Johnson had left one really good side (Yeovil) to take over a big but cr@p side (Bristol City). We were lucky that the one side who ought to have really featured in the promotion race got hugely distracted by the League Cup (Doncaster) and another got distracted by the FA Cup (Brentford) and then had to sell their main asset (DJ Campbell). We were lucky that Sodje fell out with Webby and came and joined us.

It's the ying and yang of football. We were horrifically unlucky to be landed with Ronnie Whelan and Alvin Martin in succession. The pendulum swung back in our favour last November and December. We were totally abject for two months... and yet no one took advantage. We bagged 4 points in almost two months - yet we never dropped out of the top 6. Then a freakishly good display by Darryl got us a win at Hartlepool that we completely didn't deserve - and the bandwagon was back on the rails. Tell me that that wasn't a lucky night for us?!

Seasons can turn on a single match like that. Who knows, we might yet beat United next week... and our season could get the shot in the arm it desperately needs.

I sure bloomin' hope so - since we're beginning to look desperately short of options now...

Matt

 

[Joolz]

Believe it or not, I think there are two positives to be taken from last night:

1. There can't be single supporter left who has expectations of anything other than survival for this year.

2. The survival target of 52 points is looking on the high side at present. 45 may well be enough.

 

[Interpol Shrimper]

Quote[/b] (Joolz @ Nov. 01 2006,13:40)]The survival target of 52 points is looking on the high side at present. 45 may well be enough.

Holds breath for someone (I'm guessing XS or SiaK) to calculate the average survival points (e.g. those of 4th bottom) from the 2nd tier since 92/93!

 

[RPG]

The vast majority of fans would have been happy to avoid relegation this season. However we have not won in 11 league matches and on present form it will be a miracle if this can be achieved.

We should be competing with the likes of Luton and Col******r. I disagree with the arguement that as Col******r have been an established league one side for a number of seasons and should therefore be better prepared for the Championship than us. Their squad has fundementally chaged over the past couple of years. In addition they have a manager with even less experience than Tilson.
In addition Hull also had succesive promotions and did OK last year.

I have been supporting this club for 25 years and I know that Tilson has been fantastic guiding us to two promotions and cup finals. However we are a different club than that of two years ago, we are planning to move to a 22K stadium with plans in a few years to challenge for the Premiership! In addition our attendancies have more than doubled we therefore need to keep this support. Relegation would be a disaster for the club - attendencies will fall and in a worst case scenario could end up like Darlington who get 4000 in a 27000 seater stadium.

Whilst I agree that Tilson should stay for the forseeable future if we are bottom at Christmas I may like many change my opinion. We do not have the luxary of the likes of Crewe who have kept with Dario Gradi through relegation as their ambitions do not match ours.

 

[Interpol Shrimper]

Quote[/b] (RPG @ Nov. 01 2006,13:48)]Whilst I agree that Tilson should stay for the forseeable future if we are bottom at Christmas I may like many change my opinion. We do not have the luxary of the likes of Crewe who have kept with Dario Gradi through relegation as their ambitions do not match ours.

Is that not being a touch unfair to Crewe though?
Look at the number of ex Crewe players who have made it in the big time.

Other than really Powell or Collymore, how many ex Southenders have done that? Angell failed as did Austin & Edinburgh for example!

I bet the average Crewe fan would say the same about us right now (although maybe they wouldn't be aware of RM's vision for the future!!!)

 

[CSWICKFORDSHRIMPER]

My Positives last night was the fans... everyone was gutted n up set, BUT I heard no one slagging of the players after the game

After last nights game I think we all know its going to be a massive fight to the end.. Our Players need us to be 110 percent from now on.....

as Matt said we are Victims of our our success.... lets be honest 50 percent of our squad are from our 2nd divsion days, amazingly to believe on 2 years ago

As the Leeds fan sing ''WE ALL MARCH TOETHER AND FOLLOW OUR TEAM''

One Team In Essex
SOUTHEND UNITED FC

 

[Xàbia Shrimper]

Quote[/b] (glasgowsufc @ Nov. 01 2006,14:48)]Holds breath for someone (I'm guessing XS or SiaK) to calculate the average survival points (e.g. those of 4th bottom) from the 2nd tier since 92/93!

49.4

 

[Matt the Shrimp]

Quote[/b] (Xàbia Shrimper @ Nov. 01 2006,14:35)]

Quote[/b] (glasgowsufc @ Nov. 01 2006,14:48)]Holds breath for someone (I'm guessing XS or SiaK) to calculate the average survival points (e.g. those of 4th bottom) from the 2nd tier since 92/93!

49.4

Thanks Mike!

50 points still looks a bloody long way off though, doesn't it.

 

[Jonny_Stokes]

Shall we have a race to 20?

Fiver says we get there earlier in March than you do.

 

[The Flying Scotsman]

Firstly I don't believe Tilson should go but there are a few things that need to be changed.

1. Playing 2 defenders in midfield is not working.
2. We are being hammered down both flanks defensively.
3. We have few options available.
4. We no longer play football with any pace, and this is why we are not creating many openings.
5. We're too predictable, and don't appear to be capable of doing something different.
6. When things aren't working, changes need to be made quicker.

The original question posted was "What were we expecting?"

Well, I believed that if we could play in the same manner as we have done in the past year or 2 then we would be fine. We were devensively fairly solid and capable of playing good quick and attacking football. And at the start of this season we looked like we would be capable of making the necessary step up, for instance some of the football we played at Crystal Palace was breathtaking. However, we have gone well and truly off the boil in the last month or so, in fact it started in the Cardiff game, and since that game the players all seem to have lost belief and confindence and we are now playing a complete load of sh!te.
What I'm getting sick of hearing is "remember a lot of these players were playing in League 1 and 2 not long ago" - very true, and they showed that they were better than that level by getting promoted out of those divisions. The fact of the matter is, that very few of the players are playing anything like they are capable of at the moment and this is something that Tilson needs to address.

 

[Spaceman Spiff]

Quote[/b] (Matt the Shrimp @ Nov. 01 2006,15:00)]50 points still looks a bloody long way off though, doesn't it.

About 40 points

 

[Xàbia Shrimper]

Quote[/b] (Matt the Shrimp @ Nov. 01 2006,16:00)]50 points still looks a bloody long way off though, doesn't it.

1.29 points a game ...

 

[TtD]

Would say on the evidence of last night, that the back four was improved from early season (was my first game since Sheff.Wed.). First and third goals were both due to the midfield not tracking hull players moving into the box late and backing up play after the first attack had been halted by our defenders.

Really missing that midfielder that will pick up those runs, as it seemed to be a fairly constant weakness all last night (especially one point last night when Sodje and Barrett pinned Parkin on the byline mid 2nd half only for the midfield to let a Hull player follow up totally unmarked about 12yds out dead centre of the goal with nary a Southend shirt in sight).

Also a touch too much long ball last night for my liking, but no worse than many teams and at least with Harrold up there we seem to be winning a reasonable share of headers. Just need to stop leaking these blasted soft goals all the time.

 

[loz]

Quote[/b] (The Flying Scotsman @ Nov. 01 2006,15:17)]What I'm getting sick of hearing is "remember a lot of these players were playing in League 1 and 2 not long ago" - very true, and they showed that they were better than that level by getting promoted out of those divisions.

yes they got promoted- but as Matt rightly pointed out, we were champions in spite of ourselves... the latter half of last season we were inconsistent, lacking form and panicky- 1-0 defeat at home to Gillingham, promoted via a Hartlepool goal at brentford when we could have had it wrapped up weeks before, etc etc.

In league 1, we could get away with it- a lot of teams has the same sorts of troubles. IIRC, we won the division with an exceptionally low final points total compared to most seasons. This year we're playing MUCH better sides, and being punished for the flaws that were in evidence last season (remember Stuart Robsons team report last year on us having no mobility in midfield, anyone?). The players have known nothing but success for the past couple of years, and are finding it very hard to adjust/keep their morale up. Is that something Tilly needs to deal with? of course it is. Unfortunately, he's still learning too- but i think we owe him the chance to learn with us.

Comparisons to Luton/Col U? Luton when they came up had previously destroyed league 1, suggesting they had a stronger squad when they came up. Col U have a more experienced side, a more settled defence, and are experienceing new manager 'bounce'. That could work for us, of course- but then, it didn't with Martin/Newman/Little/Wignall etc...

 

[Kris]

Matt's post is absolutely spot-on. As amazing as last season was, I had a niggling doubt in my mind that we were going up far too prematurely. League 1 was very poor last season and though we did win it on merit, we also won it because we were the best of a pretty mediocre bunch and were able to grind out enough results. How many times last season did we actually play like genuine champions? Other than the Brentford home game, when we were awesome, the second half against Yeovil and possibly the first halves against Oldham and Tranmere, we were a solid but unspectacular outfit for large periods. Swansea were the only team who genuinely impressed me - they really shot themselves in the foot by disrupting their squad with some untimely January signings.

So Tilly is definitely a victim of his own success and I can't believe people are writing him off already. He's still a young, inexperienced manager who is learning the trade but I have no doubt he will only get better and should remain in our long-term plans.

That's not to say he is beyond criticism, of course. His reluctance to make substitutions is annoying and overloading the team with defenders for a home game clearly backfired. But I'm sure he will learn from this and do his utmost to turn things around.

We need to go back to basics now and return to the more balanced shape we had at the start of the season. That means bringing back JCR on the right, whose willingness, work-rate and ability to relieve pressure with his runs on that side, has been sorely missed since he lost his place. We need to start stretching teams again and we haven't been doing that with Hunt, Guttridge and Francis in that position because they are unfamiliar with that role and don't know how to use space effectively. I also think that Gower has missed JCR because when he hugs the right touchline and bombs forward, he is always available for the crossfield ball that Gower was employing very effectively early on in the season whenever he cut inside. Again, its a method of using the full width of the pitch and stretching the opposition.

I'd also restore Spencer Prior straight away. At this point in time we need all the experienced heads we can find and he, alongside Sodje, would give us two great leaders at centre-back. That means dropping Adam Barrett. I'd stick with Hammell at left-back for now. Although he is inconsistent defensively, I think that part of the problem has been that Barrett hasn't been communicating well enough with him. With Sodje and Prior there, I think they'd be more vocal with Hammell and tell him where he needs to be at vital times. Right-back is a problem. Hunt has looked nowhere near as solid as he did last season, while Francis has gone to sleep at vital times. At the moment I'd go with Francis as, like I mentioned with Hammell, Prior and Sodje would give him the leadership he needs - and also, Francis and JCR had developed a decent partnership earlier in the season, with JCR filling in whenever Francis overlapped. If this doesn't work then Che Wilson definitely deserves a run in the team at right-back, his preferred position.

Central midfield is still a worry. Other than last night, Maher has been outstanding but he's far too overworked in there with the misfiring Guttridge, the uninspiring Hunt and the out-of-position Clarke. Tilly desperately needs a loanee in there and quick. I still think Alan McCormack would be a good addition if Preston allowed him to move south.

Up front, Matt Harrold has done OK since signing but we desperately need the experience of Lee Bradbury up there. The sooner he gets fit again, the better. Gary Hooper looks a fantastic prospect but he and Freddy are too similar to play together so it has to be one or the other at the moment - and that's obviously a no-brainer.

I also think we really need to bring Mitchell Cole back when his latest loan expires. We need fresh options and he definitely provides one on the left. Now that he's had plenty of first team action at the Cobblers, he should be a sharper player for it. With our squad as thin as it is, we can't afford not to explore every possibility within it.

 

[Hong Kong Blue]

Good post Kris, other than I'm not sure we were balanced at the start of the season with JCR. I'd rather Bradbury went wide-right when fit.

 

[The Flying Scotsman]

Quote[/b] (Kris @ Nov. 01 2006,17:12)]How many times last season did we actually play like genuine champions? Other than the Brentford home game, when we were awesome, the second half against Yeovil and possibly the first halves against Oldham and Tranmere, we were a solid but unspectacular outfit for large periods.

Some good points Kris, but don't you think that it would be good to be solid again.

 

[C C Csiders]

Quote[/b] (Matt the Shrimp @ Nov. 01 2006,15:00)]

Quote[/b] (Xàbia Shrimper @ Nov. 01 2006,14:35)]

Quote[/b] (glasgowsufc @ Nov. 01 2006,14:48)]Holds breath for someone (I'm guessing XS or SiaK) to calculate the average survival points (e.g. those of 4th bottom) from the 2nd tier since 92/93!

49.4

Thanks Mike!

50 points still looks a bloody long way off though, doesn't it.

I did a calculation pre-season, and calculated that since the inception of a 24 team Championship (and its previous guises) in season 1988/89 the average points score to finish fourth bottom is actually 49.44 points - with a points range for survival of 47-52.

 

[Kris]

Quote[/b] (Hong Kong Blue @ Nov. 01 2006,17:16)]Good post Kris, other than I'm not sure we were balanced at the start of the season with JCR. I'd rather Bradbury went wide-right when fit.

I think we were balanced. With JCR and Gower on the flanks we had a far better shape and more options in possession. Jamal also covered a hell of a lot of ground, protected Francis a lot more effectively than Hunt did, got tackles in and tucked in to help the central midfielders when necessary.

And another of his strengths is that he actually always wants the ball. Far too many of our players recently have been hiding - particularly at Roots Hall. We need players who aren't scared in possession at the moment and JCR always looks to make himself available.

Bradbury on the right would be a better option than Francis, Hunt or Guttridge but I still think we would be too predictable - Bradders doesn't have any pace or trickery so wouldn't be able to beat his man, which means he has to resort to a simple pass inside or behind him. Not the end of the world if it means keeping possession but it does mean that the opposition can get numbers behind the ball quickly and become harder to break down.

 

[seany t]

Spot on.

Oh... the memories of that night at Selhurst Park...