Slipperduke
The Camden Cad
Here on Tyneside, the hangovers are just beginning to clear. Sunday night may have been spent at the bar, defiantly pledging allegiance to the cause, but Monday morning saw the fuzzy-headed realisation that there will be no more trips to Liverpool or Arsenal for a while. Instead of Premier League opulence, Newcastle fans will have to experience the dubious pleasures of a trip to Peterborough or Plymouth instead.
Everyone knows why this has happened. Five years ago, Freddy Shepherd dismissed Sir Bobby Robson early in the season after the 'disappointment' of finishing fifth in the previous campaign. Since that pigheaded act of gross incompetence, seven managers have failed to get anywhere near a level that, for Robson, was deemed to be a sackable offence. With no stability, no common sense and no leadership, Newcastle have slowly rotted from the inside out.
But that is all in the past now. Cursing Shepherd or his equally clueless successor Mike Ashley will not take this club back to the Premier League. Only a complete overhaul will achieve that. The question is whether or not anyone at the club will be patient enough to see it through. Make no mistake, an instant return will not be easy. Middlesbrough and West Bromwich Albion, both of whom intend to retain their managers, will start the season with far more stability and cohesion. Like Leeds before them, Newcastle will have to suffer the '46 Cup Finals' syndrome, as every opponent raises their game against them. This will not be a quick recovery.
Ideally, they need at least three seasons to rebuild. The first must be spent taking a flamethrower to the piles of deadwood in the dressing room. If those supposedly top class professionals couldn't motivate themselves for the Premier League, they will be annihilated in the Championship. According to the BBC, there are 15 players at the club on more than GBP50,000 a week, none of whom have reduction clauses after relegation. They must all be shown the door. Such an exodus will leave the club relying on youth and hastily arranged replacements who will take time to settle. The owners and the fans will have to accept that, under these circumstances, mid-table will be quite an achievement.
With the wage bill decimated and the club's debts limited, in the most part, to loans from Ashley, there is nothing to stop them rebuilding at a natural pace. Unlike Leeds, at least to our knowledge, there are few outside organisations banging the door down for money. A proportion of support, the fairweather wedge that every club attracts, may ebb away, but if the cost of tickets comes down then they will be replaced by those who were priced out of the Premier League. If the board play their cards right, the club could still be able to attract 50,000 fans.
By season two, Newcastle will have more supporters, more TV revenue, more matchday income and, vitally, more of an ability to attract players than any of their rivals. Patience, however, will still be their most valuable resource. Good teams take time to build and if the board react to play-off failure, as Leeds did, by sacking the manager shortly afterwards, they'll destroy all of their progress.
If Newcastle can reach the third season of their exile with the same manager, having allowed him to put foundations down as he pleases, while resisting the urge to hurl millions at flavour of the month transfer targets and without dragging the club to the brink of oblivion with silly salaries, they will have a chance. These are the conditions that Alan Shearer must demand when he speaks to Ashley this week. We will know from the result of those talks whether Newcastle have what it takes to return to the Premier League.
Everyone knows why this has happened. Five years ago, Freddy Shepherd dismissed Sir Bobby Robson early in the season after the 'disappointment' of finishing fifth in the previous campaign. Since that pigheaded act of gross incompetence, seven managers have failed to get anywhere near a level that, for Robson, was deemed to be a sackable offence. With no stability, no common sense and no leadership, Newcastle have slowly rotted from the inside out.
But that is all in the past now. Cursing Shepherd or his equally clueless successor Mike Ashley will not take this club back to the Premier League. Only a complete overhaul will achieve that. The question is whether or not anyone at the club will be patient enough to see it through. Make no mistake, an instant return will not be easy. Middlesbrough and West Bromwich Albion, both of whom intend to retain their managers, will start the season with far more stability and cohesion. Like Leeds before them, Newcastle will have to suffer the '46 Cup Finals' syndrome, as every opponent raises their game against them. This will not be a quick recovery.
Ideally, they need at least three seasons to rebuild. The first must be spent taking a flamethrower to the piles of deadwood in the dressing room. If those supposedly top class professionals couldn't motivate themselves for the Premier League, they will be annihilated in the Championship. According to the BBC, there are 15 players at the club on more than GBP50,000 a week, none of whom have reduction clauses after relegation. They must all be shown the door. Such an exodus will leave the club relying on youth and hastily arranged replacements who will take time to settle. The owners and the fans will have to accept that, under these circumstances, mid-table will be quite an achievement.
With the wage bill decimated and the club's debts limited, in the most part, to loans from Ashley, there is nothing to stop them rebuilding at a natural pace. Unlike Leeds, at least to our knowledge, there are few outside organisations banging the door down for money. A proportion of support, the fairweather wedge that every club attracts, may ebb away, but if the cost of tickets comes down then they will be replaced by those who were priced out of the Premier League. If the board play their cards right, the club could still be able to attract 50,000 fans.
By season two, Newcastle will have more supporters, more TV revenue, more matchday income and, vitally, more of an ability to attract players than any of their rivals. Patience, however, will still be their most valuable resource. Good teams take time to build and if the board react to play-off failure, as Leeds did, by sacking the manager shortly afterwards, they'll destroy all of their progress.
If Newcastle can reach the third season of their exile with the same manager, having allowed him to put foundations down as he pleases, while resisting the urge to hurl millions at flavour of the month transfer targets and without dragging the club to the brink of oblivion with silly salaries, they will have a chance. These are the conditions that Alan Shearer must demand when he speaks to Ashley this week. We will know from the result of those talks whether Newcastle have what it takes to return to the Premier League.