Actually, I think you're slightly off the beam there. Apologies now for going
In big events (World Cup, Euros, Premier league etc) of course the bookies know the whole field. But so do the punters.
When it comes down to League 1, 2 etc, the bookies absolutely do not know all the ins and outs of every team. They will rely on the odds compiler (each bookie has it's own odds compiler) and it is then the weight of the money that is more influential.
Take us for example. We are third favourites to go down and 50/1-ish to win the league. This is entirely based on our form over the second half of last season. I'll bet some bookie in Sheffield hasn't a clue that we had loads of injuries or when they are coming back, and what's more, there isn't enough money in that market to make it worth him knowing. So he will rely on others.
We however, know all about our squad, which is why we can get a march on the bookies by using that intimate knowledge to our advantage.
A case in point was last season. It was painfully clear in the home game v Plymouth that that was as good as our squad was going to get. We had had a few duff performances but 3-0 down at home to them was embarrasing. The 2 late goals gave us hope of an unlikely equaliser but more to the point, masked the judgement of everyone who didn't have the misfortune to witness the game (although Kelman's goal was worth going for on its own).
After that match, we were 16/1 to be relegated (if I recall correctly, at that point it was even shorter to make the playoffs!) which to anyone with an inkling of knowledge of SUFC and their plight was an absolute steal. £50 on that game (with the intention of laying it off later) was like shooting fish in a barrel.
Amazingly, a month later we were still only 14/1 to go down. Another £50 gave a loss of £100 if we stayed up (which I had no intention of letting run) but a profit of £1400 if we went down (again, which I had no intention of collecting in full.)
It was after the Barnsley TV game (available to a much wider audience than those at the ground) that the odds started to move. no doubt with the weight of money coming in on us as dead certs for the drop.
To cut a long story short, I cashed in before the end of the season and collected £850 in winnings based on knowledge that I possessed which the bookies didn't.
To illustrate my point further, if it had been a Premier league side that had been decimated through injuries, everyone would have been talking about it and the odds would have moved much more quickly. So the bookies aren't aware of everything, especially away from the top levels.
This season, for anyone who's interested, have a punt on SUFC to go up once the handicap odds come out. That has to be our best bet.
Anyway, back on topic...
Any signings this week forecast then?