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What direction does the club need to take?


  • Total voters
    86
Well Ron budgeted on 8000 average attendance.

We had 6400 ish I believe at our last game, which is 1600 under obviously.

1600 x (average ticket price about...?) £15 = £24000 revenue lost from that game alone. You can see why Rons not in the best place to buy.
 
Perhaps the crowd last Saturday bore out the theory that we've peaked at the moment. We need players that will put in the effort and give the performances that give the results, that'll draw back the crowds.

Vicious circle I think.

Saying that I still think crowds / effort / performance is wstill much better than PT (pre-Tilson)
 
An interesting point/read, and I think we certainly are at a crossroads. For me, however, it doesn't necessariyl need to be a mutually exclusive decision.

We do posess a number of quality players, and with just a couple of signings (a commanding centre half and a creative midfielder) we would probably have enough to escape, even if it wasn't by much. Perhaps use this window as the opportunity to start building a platform to push on from next season - let's not wait until the summer to start looking at our options for next season, let's start now, and at the same time, be realistic in the targets you are looking at.

The other side of the coin is that both options could prove costly. If we took a view that we did not want to spend, spend, spend and then ended up being relegated, I am fairly sure that would cost the club a lot in revenue in terms of TV finance, season ticket sales, matchday ticket prices and so on - Although possibly not enough to put the club into serious trouble, still an equally dangerous gamble to take.

My bigest fear in all of this is that relegation would mean the club losing so many fans which it has worked so hard to gain over the last few seasons, and that would be a tragedy in itself. The feel good factor which has surrounded the club for a few seasons would inevitably vanish if relegation was realised, and just look how many years it took for us to get back to averaging the kind of gates we have now.

Given the current situation within the squad, we have to spend at least some money to try and resolve the problems we have - the manager himself has made no secret of this fact, and it is not beyond the realms of anyone to expect the club to spend some of the money it has acquired over the last 12 months or so. If you just took the money from the Chelsea game alone, something which was an unexpected and unplanned bonus, you would be able to do some damage in the market, and pick up some quality players.
 
This is the game we played in the 90s in what is now ridiculously called the championship, and it nearly cost the club its existence. Dave Regis, Andy Rammell, Jereon Boere - how many of them hung around and were a factor at the club for any length of time? Their legacy was one of debt and desperation, short-term thinking instead of long-term planning. They cost the club approximately £750,000 in transfer fees, virtually none of it was recouped, and God knows how much more in wages. Their goals helped extend our championship stay for a couple more years, but at what cost? The years that followed were the most depressing imaginable, bouncing around in the bottom half of the 4th division, devoid of hope. That is the price of trying to avoid the inevitable.

Whilst I agree with the sentiments of the post, this bit just isn't true. Boere cost us £150k from Palace, Rammell came from Barnsley in a swap with Regis going the other way. IIRC, Regis also came in a swap from Brum.

To call it their legacy is absurd really. They weren't responsible for the 'debt and desperation, short-term thinking instead of long-term planning' as you claim, that was the manager, chairman and the board at the time.

Rammell and Boere were both released by the club at the end of their contracts.
 
to be fair to Ron martin the credit crunch has completely and utterly screwed the long term plan -

meaning any financial strategy is in the bin -

meaning a major impact on the budget for players etc.

just a fact of life ... at least RH has a stay of execution



1) Not quite as bad as we as individuals might imagine.

2) US Stadia Finance is still a booming and profitable business.

3) Finance is readily avaialble contrary to popular belief - do an internet
search "stadia finance".

4) Interest rates are considerably lower and although commercial rates of
borrowing may differ from consumer, still attractive.

Borrow now as much as you can over the longest period achievable, at
fixed rate.

5) Price of metal has halved since July 08, making the structure of a
stadium or the base structure for flats etc more affordable than for a
long time.

6) Builders/Developers would be crying out for work and a hard bargain
could be negotiated on all aspects, reducing the capital borrowing
requirement.


All in all there could not be a better time to build for the future ?
 
Last edited:
Don't know whether standing at the crossroads is the right analogy. It's more like a T-junction with two choices, one of them being a dead end. Ron has nailed his colours firmly to the mast and you can be sure that there will be no wreckless spending spree.
I stated, a while back (can't remember where), that the January transfer window will have to be a careful balance between preserving what we've got , in terms of league status and planning for the future. I said that the majority of signings were likely to be loans and that I would be happy with one or two permenant signings that will start to form a strategy for next season and possibly the one after that.
January is a notoriously difficult time to buy and I am always a bit gob smacked by the simplistic approach of some of the 'splash the dosh Ron' brigade on here........as if it was as simple as that! However, I do feel reasonably confident that, if the right player, at the right price, comes along .........the money will be found.
 
The Club has been walking a tightrope for a couple of seasons now. A gamble that by signing few of quality and relying on loanees, we would be able to hold our own and maybe nibble at the play-offs until the 'all sing, all dancing' new stadium comes along 'to realease funds'. Well, part one is faltering and part two has been delayed(for whatever reason). I do not hold with allowing the club to fall another div, consecutive relegations are all too easy and that would be the end of the 22K stadium dream! To do nothing now is not an option as far as I'm concerned!
 
The Club has been walking a tightrope for a couple of seasons now. A gamble that by signing few of quality and relying on loanees, we would be able to hold our own and maybe nibble at the play-offs until the 'all sing, all dancing' new stadium comes along 'to realease funds'. Well, part one is faltering and part two has been delayed(for whatever reason). I do not hold with allowing the club to fall another div, consecutive relegations are all too easy and that would be the end of the 22K stadium dream! To do nothing now is not an option as far as I'm concerned!



It was the Worst of Times - It was The Best of Times.

Maybe part of the problem lies in the end profitablity of the projects not now matching original expectations [the perceived or market value of flats etc against the cost of building]

However in a commercial environ, it known profitable businesses can be run at commercial developments, then it is should still be a no brainer.
 
It was the Worst of Times - It was The Best of Times.

Maybe part of the problem lies in the end profitablity of the projects not now matching original expectations [the perceived or market value of flats etc against the cost of building]

However in a commercial environ, it known profitable businesses can be run at commercial developments, then it is should still be a no brainer.

oooh we have not been there before have we........

We are in this mess due to no small contribution of the last property slump.
The Southbank was flattened to make way for flats, the sale of which would IIRC have funded a redevelopment of the ground and the team. Unfortunately the arse fell out of housing market in 1989 and no money what so ever was made on the flats. to the extent that Firholm, I believe, attempted (or maybe just considerd) to sue the club for the losses they had made on the deal

This lack of funds, combined with a surprising surge up the leagues leading to increased costs in wages etc for better players left us in the 2nd tier with little money. This in turn was not aided by the shocking level of support we got in our time in that division (in the 6 seasons our average league home gate was 5756) Attempts were made to keep us in the division , which in some cases actually worked (Stan Collymore , Steve Thompson) but in the end Vic ran out of either money or enthusiasm or probably Health (as well as running out on his wife) and we dropped like a stone, a very skint stone.



BTW whilst checking the attendance thing i notice today is the 43rd Birthday of the Legend that is KEITH DUBLIN
 
oooh we have not been there before have we........

We are in this mess due to no small contribution of the last property slump.
The Southbank was flattened to make way for flats, the sale of which would IIRC have funded a redevelopment of the ground and the team. Unfortunately the arse fell out of housing market in 1989 and no money what so ever was made on the flats. to the extent that Firholm, I believe, attempted (or maybe just considerd) to sue the club for the losses they had made on the deal

This lack of funds, combined with a surprising surge up the leagues leading to increased costs in wages etc for better players left us in the 2nd tier with little money. This in turn was not aided by the shocking level of support we got in our time in that division (in the 6 seasons our average league home gate was 5756) Attempts were made to keep us in the division , which in some cases actually worked (Stan Collymore , Steve Thompson) but in the end Vic ran out of either money or enthusiasm or probably Health (as well as running out on his wife) and we dropped like a stone, a very skint stone.



BTW whilst checking the attendance thing i notice today is the 43rd Birthday of the Legend that is KEITH DUBLIN


Crikey, ye gods I love your brain and no doubt your brain loves you too !
 
That's a great post YB (cough, ouch !).

If, as you say, our wage bill has doubled how can we not attract players to the club ? I'm afraid my views on Tilly are rapidly changing and I firmly believe he is on borrowed time. Relegation isn't the end of the world but it's not far from it.

It has been a fantastic past few seasons but it's no use looking at the past. Here we are with a day or so left on the transfer window with a paper thin injury hit squad devoid of suitable cover in defence (or suitable defence/captain for that matter :p). We're in the middle of a terrible run and seemingly without too much activity apart from a loanee striker. I'm not advocating splashing the cash and we don't need any more midfielders or attackers. Let's get some bloody decent defenders in and stop leaking stupid goals.
 
Surprising majority on this one!

I think the poll choices are a little black and white - it needs a middle option.

Obviously going 'all-in' could end us up in all sorts of trouble, but thinking 'long term' I do not hesitate to say will get us relegated this season and jepordise the whole stadium project.

Its almost as if 88% of voters would be happy for us to go back to being a small yo-yo club?

I think the sensible voting option is spend as much as WE CAN now to get us out of the mess asap and god willing stop us going down this season.

Then try to do what we can to rebuild in the summer with (afraid to say again) a new manager on a smaller budget, who can hopefully bring in some more experienced players due to having better contacts/negotiation skills.
 
Personally, if I were Ron, I think I would go all in. If we don't build a squad capable of surviving L1 and do drop into L2, we will struggle even more to attract more quality players, as we'll be seen as another yo-yoing club.

Ordinarily, I would say not, but this is a situation where we have to buy and spend our way out of trouble.

If the club is to be in a position to challenge for promotion to the Championship (next year not this), we need a decent settled side, not loans, but established signings that are here for the long term, and believe in the management's vision and goals.

If you go all in now though, you are hamstringing next season, the season after by signing short term signings on long term contracts.

Did our championship status help us sign better players? I'm not convinced that it did. I think our best players were largely signed when we were a 4th division club. What it will require is patience and persistence. If we rush into signings now, it may make it harder to sign the right player when they eventually become available.


An interesting point/read, and I think we certainly are at a crossroads. For me, however, it doesn't necessariyl need to be a mutually exclusive decision.

We do posess a number of quality players, and with just a couple of signings (a commanding centre half and a creative midfielder) we would probably have enough to escape, even if it wasn't by much. Perhaps use this window as the opportunity to start building a platform to push on from next season - let's not wait until the summer to start looking at our options for next season, let's start now, and at the same time, be realistic in the targets you are looking at.

The other side of the coin is that both options could prove costly. If we took a view that we did not want to spend, spend, spend and then ended up being relegated, I am fairly sure that would cost the club a lot in revenue in terms of TV finance, season ticket sales, matchday ticket prices and so on - Although possibly not enough to put the club into serious trouble, still an equally dangerous gamble to take.

My bigest fear in all of this is that relegation would mean the club losing so many fans which it has worked so hard to gain over the last few seasons, and that would be a tragedy in itself. The feel good factor which has surrounded the club for a few seasons would inevitably vanish if relegation was realised, and just look how many years it took for us to get back to averaging the kind of gates we have now.

Given the current situation within the squad, we have to spend at least some money to try and resolve the problems we have - the manager himself has made no secret of this fact, and it is not beyond the realms of anyone to expect the club to spend some of the money it has acquired over the last 12 months or so. If you just took the money from the Chelsea game alone, something which was an unexpected and unplanned bonus, you would be able to do some damage in the market, and pick up some quality players.

If fans would be lost dues to results, surely fans could be regained because of results?

My concern isn't the transfer fees, it is the wages. The £150,000 we spent on Richie Foran wasn't the problem, it is the £2-3k we are still shelling out two years later, that is eating into our budget. This is what repeatedly happened when we were clinging onto our 2nd tier status in the 90s, constantly taking out of next year's budget to make short term fixes. We need long term fixes, not short term ones.


Whilst I agree with the sentiments of the post, this bit just isn't true. Boere cost us £150k from Palace, Rammell came from Barnsley in a swap with Regis going the other way. IIRC, Regis also came in a swap from Brum.

To call it their legacy is absurd really. They weren't responsible for the 'debt and desperation, short-term thinking instead of long-term planning' as you claim, that was the manager, chairman and the board at the time.

Rammell and Boere were both released by the club at the end of their contracts.

Those deals were valued at that sort of money. The legacy of their signings was debt and no money in the kitty for the next season. Those players' biggest impact wasn't on the playing field (although I didn't mind Dave Regis who did a job for us), it was on the bank balance.

The Club has been walking a tightrope for a couple of seasons now. A gamble that by signing few of quality and relying on loanees, we would be able to hold our own and maybe nibble at the play-offs until the 'all sing, all dancing' new stadium comes along 'to realease funds'. Well, part one is faltering and part two has been delayed(for whatever reason). I do not hold with allowing the club to fall another div, consecutive relegations are all too easy and that would be the end of the 22K stadium dream! To do nothing now is not an option as far as I'm concerned!

Do you not see the cost of short term fixes though? I don't want the club to be relegated, but I don't want the club to be lumbered with debt and expenses that anchor us down either. Consecutive relegations happen when you overspend and it doesn't work. Next season you have to off-load all your better players and you then lack the quality to stay up. It wasn't the failure to spend when we were in division 2 that cost us that second relegation, it was the spending that we'd done. This is the spiral I want us to avoid by not spending on short term fixes.
 
That's a great post YB (cough, ouch !).

If, as you say, our wage bill has doubled how can we not attract players to the club ? I'm afraid my views on Tilly are rapidly changing and I firmly believe he is on borrowed time. Relegation isn't the end of the world but it's not far from it.

It has been a fantastic past few seasons but it's no use looking at the past. Here we are with a day or so left on the transfer window with a paper thin injury hit squad devoid of suitable cover in defence (or suitable defence/captain for that matter :p). We're in the middle of a terrible run and seemingly without too much activity apart from a loanee striker. I'm not advocating splashing the cash and we don't need any more midfielders or attackers. Let's get some bloody decent defenders in and stop leaking stupid goals.

We clearly need a creative midfielder, probably more so than a defender. My point is, that we are better off waiting until we get the right one, rather than just going for anyone.

Surprising majority on this one!

I think the poll choices are a little black and white - it needs a middle option.

Obviously going 'all-in' could end us up in all sorts of trouble, but thinking 'long term' I do not hesitate to say will get us relegated this season and jepordise the whole stadium project.

Its almost as if 88% of voters would be happy for us to go back to being a small yo-yo club?

I think the sensible voting option is spend as much as WE CAN now to get us out of the mess asap and god willing stop us going down this season.

Then try to do what we can to rebuild in the summer with (afraid to say again) a new manager on a smaller budget, who can hopefully bring in some more experienced players due to having better contacts/negotiation skills.

By spend as much as we can, do you mean out of this year's budget, or next year and the year after's budget?
 
By spend as much as we can, do you mean out of this year's budget, or next year and the year after's budget?

No, I mean 'as much as we can (afford)'... if its true that we've had a 6 figure bid rejected, then thats at least £100,000 in the kitty - plus we allegedly improved on that bid too.

Saying that is our total budget... £100,000+, I still say that can bring in some decent League 2/Top conference type players.

So what I mean is, if there IS £100,000+ available AT LEAST, then we need to spend all that before the window shuts to help us stay up.

I know its not a guarantee of survival, but getting 2/3 permanent bodies in is going to give us a better chance this season, than not doing that.

As an aside, I wonder how much Lincoln are asking for Lee Frecklington. I would imagine more than £100,000 - but worth an ask.

My mate sent me a list of possible targets he'd come up with and I'm sure he wont mind me posting some here:-

Daniel Jones - Wolves - LM/LB (loan)
Peter Sweeney - Leeds - LM (loan)
Karl Hawley - PNE -ST (loan)
Adam Chambers - Orient -CM (cash)
Gary Mulligan - Gills - ST (cash)
Adam Miller - Gills - CM (cash)
Sam Saunders - Dagenham - RM (cash)
Josh Gowling - Carlisle - CB (cash)
Chris Dickson - Charlton - ST (loan)

I'd think the ones he's marked as 'cash' would be within our reach - not all of them, but a couple surely.
 
My mate sent me a list of possible targets he'd come up with and I'm sure he wont mind me posting some here:-

Daniel Jones - Wolves - LM/LB (loan)
Peter Sweeney - Leeds - LM (loan)
Karl Hawley - PNE -ST (loan)
Adam Chambers - Orient -CM (cash)
Gary Mulligan - Gills - ST (cash)
Adam Miller - Gills - CM (cash)
Sam Saunders - Dagenham - RM (cash)
Josh Gowling - Carlisle - CB (cash)
Chris Dickson - Charlton - ST (loan)

I'd think the ones he's marked as 'cash' would be within our reach - not all of them, but a couple surely.

Was this list generated from FM? :)

For starters, isn't Dickson quite active in the Charlton squad now? I'm sure he was playing for them other night.
 
Dickson came off the bench and scored for Charlton last week in the cup
 
Was this list generated from FM? :)

For starters, isn't Dickson quite active in the Charlton squad now? I'm sure he was playing for them other night.

Nah, my mate follows football like a religion and knows the lower leagues very well.

He sent me the list about 10 days ago, so around the time we were sniffing around Dickson - forgot to take him off the list!
 
I think the club is currently at a cross roads.

We can either spend money and try and buy our way out of possible trouble with expensive short term solutions, or we can struggle on with what we've got, topped up by loan signings and the occasional more expensive signing when the right player eventually comes along.

I expect the immediate response is spend, spend, spend. But I think more thought needs to be given before embarking off in that direction. This is a question of long term versus short term.

We've seen what happens when you try and make short term desperation signings, they are called Richie Foran and they cost you £150,000 and are burdens on your wage bill which then don't give you the room to manoeuvre in the future.

This is the game we played in the 90s in what is now ridiculously called the championship, and it nearly cost the club its existence. Dave Regis, Andy Rammell, Jereon Boere - how many of them hung around and were a factor at the club for any length of time? Their legacy was one of debt and desperation, short-term thinking instead of long-term planning. They cost the club approximately £750,000 in transfer fees, virtually none of it was recouped, and God knows how much more in wages. Their goals helped extend our championship stay for a couple more years, but at what cost? The years that followed were the most depressing imaginable, bouncing around in the bottom half of the 4th division, devoid of hope. That is the price of trying to avoid the inevitable.

I expect I'll get a torrent of abuse for suggesting this, but if we spend because we need to do something to get out of the position we're in, we're condemning the club to a spiral of debt. We've got to break out of that spiral. We need to sign players, but until the likes of Foran and Furlong can be off-loaded (maybe even Freedman?), we should be concentrating on getting loan signings into cover the long-term injured. The one exception should be if we can get a playmaker with the flair to replace Mark Gower. At a push I could maybe go for another centre-half to replace Clarke who, after all, is out of contract in the summer and set to walk and lose the club's £300,000(?) investment.

Our club can't afford to be managed on a short-term fire-fighting basis. To be successful we need long term planning and long term security. Let's give Steve Tilson another contract extension (with the added bonus that it's cheaper to negotiate now, then when we are top of the table) and the instruction to concentrate on the long term future of this club so he has the job security to be brave and persevere with the likes of Moussa and Herd, so that he spends time trying to uncover players who might only be able to contribute in a season's time (like he did with Bentley and Guttridge, and like hopefully Scannell and who knows maybe even Clark Masters might) rather than merely plugging gaps.

I don't want to see the club be relegated, but I don't want to see the club burdened with overpaid, underperforming players and unsustainable contracts either. The latter just isn't a price worth paying. What we need now, more than ever, is long-term thinking.

Wow, I posted this almost exactly a year ago.

12 months on (less two days), I think the time is right again to offer Steve Tilson a contract extension.

Back him and give him the security so that he can make decisions on a long-term basis, rather than a short-term one. I'm concerned about the conservatism of his decision making: the half-time substitution that saw us stick to one up front despite trailing, never looking like scoring and having to make a change; his unwillingness to trust our youngsters like O'Keefe, Herd and even Walker (although I'm with him on Herd).

No manager is ever going to be perfect but Steve Tilson is just about as good a fit for the club as we're ever going to have. Let's start trying to look further ahead than the next game (important as it maybe) and relying on stop-gap measures and let's try and build something here. A new long-term contract for Steve Tilson can be the first step in this process.
 
I think this is, kind of, what the club are looking at...

With the stadium costs looming, the finances at the club looking suspect and reinforcements for the first team needed, it would be all-too-easy to simply cut the funding for the youth development programme and reallocate the funds... Which is pretty much what RM had to do when he first arrived here. Instead, the youth programme is flourishing under Duncan, the support from the Trust and RM's acceptance that a youth programme is essential to a club.

Look our recent signings, Paterson and Spencer are both just 20 years old and have their careers in front of them. Had he not been a troublesome little ****, we would undoubtedly have signed Lee Sawyer and we've made enquiries about other young players, Sean Morrison included. Obviously experience is needed to mould the squad together, but If we're going to make signings, I'd much rather be making these than signing 28 year old journeymen with absolutely no desire to run their socks off for the squad.

More importantly than this, Tilson's experience as a youth coach will make him aware of how useful this can be and I think we've seen with the likes of Moussa, Herd and Lawson before them that he won't hesitate in throwing them in at the deep end.
 
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